$10 NL HE Full Ring: Hero call or fold ? River decision with QQ

[rastapapolos]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Stakes

$.05/$.10

Table Format

Full (8-10 seats)

VP$IP

0

Currency

$

Hi, this is another hand that I played recently online. I wanted to know your opinions and having some feedbacks from you guys.
So this is second orbit since I sat down on this table. I don't have much stat on villains except that UTG+1 is very aggressive.

No Limit Hold'em $0,05/$0,10
pokerstars
8 players

Stacks:
UTG - UTG ($11,64)
UTG+1 - UTG+1 ($13,10)
MP - MP ($17,21)
MP2 - MP2 ($6,98)
CO - CO ($23,43)
BTN - BTN ($10,00)
SB - SB ($9,57)
BB - Hero ($9,70)

Preflop: ($0,15, 8 players) Hero is BB with Q♥ Q♠
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0,22, 4 folds, SB raises to $0,34, Hero calls $0,24, UTG+1 calls $0,12

Recently I've seen some players min-raising their premiums AA, KK, QQ, AK that's why I didn't want to 4bet the SB and UTG+1 is still active and could 5bet. That's why I decided to flat and fold if there are any action.

Flop: T♠ K♦ 2♠ ($1,02, 3 players - SB: $9,23, Hero: $9,36, UTG+1: $12,76)
SB bets $0,50, Hero calls $0,50, UTG+1 calls $0,50

Although I missed the flop I decided to flat again and fold OTT. I was hoping to see a Jack or some spade.

Turn: 2♥ ($2,52, 3 players - SB: $8,73, Hero: $8,86, UTG+1: $12,26)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $1,80, 1 fold, Hero calls $1,80

SB gave up after the UTG+1 bets more than 2/3 pot. I decided to call for a couple of reasons: His sizing didn't make sense for me (from my experience/instinct) and His image (aggro).

River: 9♦ ($6,12, 2 players - Hero: $7,06, UTG+1: $10,46)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $10,46 (all-in)


I'm in an awkward spot. I try to replay the hand mentally and breakin it down, so AA, AK it's a 4bet pre, if not it's a raise OTF. I'm blocking KQ and all his other K's check turn.
TT is a call preflop but it's a raise OTF.
The only logical hand for me is A2.
and there are also plenty of bluffs.

Hero ??

Spoiler: Spoiler

Hero calls $7,06 (all-in), Uncalled bet of $3,40 returned to UTG+1
Total Pot: $20,24
UTG+1 shows J♠ A♣ (a pair of Deuces)
Hero shows Q♥ Q♠ (two pair, Queens and Deuces)

Hero wins $19,33

 

[Aballinamion]

Thanks for submitting your hand to analysis. The problem of this hand is huge for there are two villains involved. But you have notes that UTG is aggressive, it has propensity to open a wider range from EP. SB 3-bet min-raise is also strange, having no notes or observations could imply that SB isn’t a very skilled player, for this sizing gives good odds for Hero in the Big Blind to call. It can also means that it could’ve strong hands on his range, however QQ is very strong here to fold and not so strong to 4-bet versus aggression player in the EP. Thus, preflop action is fine for this game. In other scenarios we could be folding QQ in the same spot, but clearly this is not the case.
OTF we still have good odds and we cannot simply fold, given such a good pricing.
Now OTT things begin to get strange. Villain is aggressive but this implies that it can only has x or y on his range? And there’s a great chance that villain doesn’t own AA, KK or AK, but it can has KQ, KJ, KT and we are trapped because our range is also capped to a bunch of close hands, otherwise we would have 4-bet preflop: the same idea that goes for villain also goes for hero.
Besides de Kings in his combos villain also holds TT, that could have called preflop, A2, AT and JJ.
We should run some calculations here, but we are only beating his draws of spades (which villain doesn’t have much cause we have blockers), and we aren’t expecting many AQ in his range, so being realistic we are beating his combos of AT and JJ, and even being aggressive would he risk betting dominated OTT?
By calling OTT what is our plan for card rivers? Are we expecting another Queen, are we expecting villain to check-behind....
We shouldn’t be calling because villain sizing doesn’t make sense, but because we have a strong hand with showdown value. But folding OTT also doesn’t seem optimal, because villain is too much aggressive. I would be calling OTT 30% of times and folding 70% of times in the same spot, as played it’s fine, even if we don’t have a plan for the river.
On the river we are assuming too much, okay there’s a small chance of villain to have AK or even KK and least of all KQ cause we block it, but by any means this could imply that villain can NEVER has these hands in his range.
I would’ve folded on the turn to avoid getting trapped on the river.
It is more logical that villain should’ve raised TT, AA and KK OTF, but we know micro limits aren’t very logical. In spite of the results, calling turn river proves that we are leveling in dark spots where villain could’ve Ax and would be trying to represent AK... we never now for sure.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
For me this is a mandatory 4-bet. You say, that you have seen people min 3-bet their premiums, and yes that does happen from time to time. But more commonly its someone, who either misclicked or are 3-betting just for the sake of 3-betting and taking control of the hand. So you are way ahead of both players ranges here, and there is no reason to allow both of them to essentially see a flop for free. Finally 4-betting gives you information. If crazy action breaks out behind you, like a 5-bet and a call, you can still fold and actually get away rather cheaply from a cooler situation, when someone does in fact have KK or AA.

Flop
The problem with continuing here is, that you are not closing the action, and when you are behind to either opponent, you have very little equity even with the addition of some backdoor draws. For that reason I dont hate your call, but its a lot closer, than you probably think, and folding would not be crazy. Yes thats very nitty, but the whole reason, why I 4-bet preflop, is to not end up in this situation in the first place.

Turn
Now UTG takes over the betting, and just to get the analytical framework right, we can likely all agree, that this is never a worse hand betting for value. Hands like JJ or AT are not overcalling on the flop and then bombing the turn when checked to. So we are in a bluff catching situation, and then the first thing we do is to look at our potential to improve as well as blockers, and how high in our range we are.

Your potential to improve is very low, since you are now only drawing to one of the last two Q´s, and this will not even give you the nuts, since AJ and J9 will make a straight. You have bad blockers, since you block a lot of draws but no value. And finally, since the flop call was already marginal, this is one of the worst made hands, you can still have. With all this adding up you have an easy fold.

River
QJ got there, so now the only busted draw is spades, which you still block to some extend (AQ and Q9) and maybe a hand like AJ, which would be a rather loose call on the flop. I would have folded already on the turn, but if I somehow ended up here, its a very easy fold now.

Results
So he was in fact bluffing, and your passive line worked out this time. But for me this is not a winning strategy in the long run. I would still have 4-bet pre, and most likely this then gets AJo to fold, which is a fine result, since it deny his equity.

 

[Station_Master]

This is a very interesting hand with lots of considerations on every street. Firstly I'd be cautious about making too many assumptions about what is in and out of villains range and think it's better to use terminology such as these hands are unlikely etc. E.g. you say AK gets 4bet off pre. Does it? Probably sometimes, but some villains will call it especially as the min 3bet and a cold call of 3bet can look strong. So you might want to discount some combos but not remove the possibility entirely.

Pre-Flop: cold call or 4bet both fine. Given the sizings maybe I prefer a 4bet as then UTG will be forced out unless he has a strong hand and you can play IP. Cold call is also fine though it does cap our range, influencing post flop.

Flop: already hating the K high board, against 2 opponents in a 3bet pot its likely one of them has a K or better, also we are in the middle making it hard to play. With the Q of spades and bdsd I think we have to call, but it's not a great spot as even if we are ahead it will be difficult to realise equity. A nitty fold could even be considered and wouldn't be disastrous (and might be the play v a bigger bet).

Turn: looks promising when SB checks on a brick. When UTG bets the turn we are in a tough spot. Firstly having called the flop UTG is bound to have something, a made hand or draw. Our hand is a bluff catcher and we have bad blockers, with QJ or a flush draw being the obvious bluffs. The problem is our range is capped when we dont bet turn, and QQ is probably the best hand we have. Without the read that villain is agro I think it's a fold. With the read, it's a tough spot as there are literally no good rivers and we will be potentially guessing on the river.

River: when villain overbet he is polarised and likely to have a strong value hand or a pure bluff. Having got to the river like this it's actually an OK bluff catcher as we block QJ (that got there) and with a straight available it's way too thin to jam Kx unless its specifically KT. We only really lose to two combos of QJ, three combos of TT and maybe some KT occasionally. There arent a ton of logical bluffs,, but if he is an agro player like you say then there are plenty of busted flush draws available. Therefore I think call is fine once we get to the river like this (though I would have probably folded turn)

 

[fundiver199]

The only logical hand for me is A2.

There is also QJ, which got there on the river, and there is flopped sets and two pair, that slowplayed the flop. Like KT, TT and 22. Maybe AK as well, if he was as scared of the SB min 3-bet, as you were.

Having got to the river like this it's actually an OK bluff catcher as we block QJ (that got there)

Fair point. On the turn its bad to block QJ, but on the river its actually good. If he open QJo, its 8 value combos, that we can remove from his range.

 

[rastapapolos]

E.g. you say AK gets 4bet off pre. Does it? Probably sometimes, but some villains will call it especially as the min 3bet and a cold call of 3bet can look strong. So you might want to discount some combos but not remove the possibility entirely.

Thanks @Station_Master for your feedback, I'll add that I discount the AK because of his image, an agro will 4bet or 5bet with his AK. that's my thoughts. I've seen a lot of them playing for their stack with such a hand.

Results
So he was in fact bluffing, and your passive line worked out this time. But for me this is not a winning strategy in the long run. I would still have 4-bet pre, and most likely this then gets AJo to fold, which is a fine result, since it deny his equity.

Thanks @fundiver199 for your feedback.
Yes I do think that it's not a winning strategy in the long run, a 4bet is a must. I was scared about the min-raise and UTG range and normally at the micro I shouldn't, also the lack of information and HH, made me choose the passive line.

 

[Aballinamion]

Thanks @Station_Master for your feedback, I'll add that I discount the AK because of his image, an agro will 4bet or 5bet with his AK. that's my thoughts. I've seen a lot of them playing for their stack with such a hand.



Thanks @fundiver199 for your feedback.
Yes I do think that it's not a winning strategy in the long run, a 4bet is a must. I was scared about the min-raise and UTG range and normally at the micro I shouldn't, also the lack of information and HH, made me choose the passive line.

Oh mate you didn’t like my comments 😥 and I have put a lot effort into it...
hey just messing around and kidding, I really appreciate the fact you are posting your hands to analysis and I hope you continue to do it more often.
I will also restart to play NLHE 2 this week, and I’ll posts some hands here and I’m counting with you and the other guys you mentioned, the most active cash hands analysts to provide their good comments.
Thank you very much mate as best regards!

 

[Aballinamion]

Hero calls $7,06 (all-in), Uncalled bet of $3,40 returned to UTG+1
Total Pot: $20,24
UTG+1 shows J♠ A♣ (a pair of Deuces)
Hero shows Q♥ Q♠ (two pair, Queens and Deuces)

Hero wins $19,33

Say whaaat???? Lol, AJs, bluffing like that! My oh my, indeed, I wasn’t expecting this hand, it seems that villain had no respect for you, which was pretty damn awesome! Nice hand, let’s the chips fall as they may!

 

[subluchuk]

I really lean towards calling there.You made ure hand look very weak,and after the preflop aggressor gave the hand up whilst checking the turn,the aggro UTG player maybe decided to give it a try stealing the pot

 

[John A]

I agree the hand makes no sense at all. Weak Kx isn't shoving river. TT is raising the flop, you block QJ, etc... I'd still fold river. I looked at results, and that's great it worked out, but I think long term it's better to 4-bet pre in this spot (can't believe he 3-bet AJ vs UTG opener in full ring - this was dumb in itself), and fold to river over shoves unless you really had a read or solid data on someone.