$10 NL HE Full Ring: Hero call or fold ?

[rastapapolos]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Stakes

$.05/$.10

Table Format

Full (8-10 seats)

Currency

$

I wanted to know your opinion about a hand that I played recently online. So it is NL10 full ring "9" and all the players are regs and pretty solid.
Seating at MP I get dealt .
UTG (110bb) Opens 2.5bb. He's a tight player vpip 18% pfr around 10%.
2 folds.
Hero (165bb) I decided to flat call.
2 folds.
Button (102bb) a solid player calls.
SB folds.
BB calls (126bb). a vpip higher than 24% and a pfr above 18%.

Flop : pot: 10.5bb

BB checks.
UTG throws a CB of 4.5bb
Hero calls 4.5bb
BU folds.
BB raises to 14bb
UTG folds.
Hero calls 14bb.

Turn: pot: 43bb

BB bets 22bb.
Hero calls 22bb.

River: pot: 87bb

BB shoves 87.5bb
Hero ??

Here I'm thinking if he raises the flop with a 5 which he could have in his range. why shoving the river on a King ? My range has plenty of K. If he has a K why raising the flop vs UTG range (AA, AK, KQ) + a caller.
I'm tempted to call since the only hand that make sense is a busted flush draw and a lot of regs play their draws aggressively, BUT I decided to be disciplined and Fold.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
A tight player opened UTG at full ring. In that situation calling with a hand like A2s is just asking for trouble in my opinion. Sure its cool, when you make the nut flush. But its going to be more common, that you make top pair, and then its very difficult to not at least pay off 1 or 2 streets of betting from a hand, that has you outkicked. You could 3-bet and turn it into a bluff, but in general we want to 3-bet, when people are opening wide, and this situation is just the opposite. So I would just fold and not even worry about it.

Flop
You flopped the nut flushdraw, which is pretty much, what you were hoping for when calling pre. Clearly we are not folding now, so the only question is raise or call? And I like to just call here. I think, its very likely, that UTG can have hands like AA, AK or KQ, and I dont think, he is going to bet-fold them on the flop. There are also two guys behind you, who could also have a K or a 5, so all in all I dont think, there is enough fold equity to justify raising. Now BB raise instead, and this is not really, what we were looking for, but I dont think, you can fold just yet. You could be dead to a boat, but there are not many logical boats in his range, and you are getting a decent price to try to hit your flush on the turn.

Turn
You did not make a flush, but you picked up bottom pair. Which does help a little bit, because it gives you two more outs against a K. He is betting around half pot, which on the surface seem like a good enough price to call, because you only need to realise around 25% equity. But the issue here is, its still a paired board, which mean, that if he has a hand like 65, then 6d will make you a very expensive second best hand. And there is still a small risk, you might be completely dead already. So your implied odds are not nearly as good, as they are on an unpaired board, where hitting a flush will usually give you the nuts. And for that reason I actually prefer to just let it go. But its close, and calling is not like a massive mistake.

River
I understand, what you say, that his line dont really makes sense with any strong hand other than maybe 55 or KK, that slowplayed preflop. But this is a microstakes game, so we dont want to level ourselfes by removing all strong hands from our opponents range, just because we would not have played them this way. Maybe this guy does actually raise a K on the flop, because he dont understand, how strong UTGs range is. Or maybe he does jam a 5 on the river, because he is on tilt, and he dont want to check-fold or check-call on one of the worst cards in the deck for him. So its better to fall back on fundamentals and look at, how high in your range this hand is. You are facing a full pot sized bet, so the GTO line here is to fold the worst half of your range, which certainly will include A high.

 

[Aballinamion]

I wanted to know your opinion about a hand that I played recently online. So it is NL10 full ring "9" and all the players are regs and pretty solid.
Seating at MP I get dealt .
UTG (110bb) Opens 2.5bb. He's a tight player vpip 18% pfr around 10%.
2 folds.
Hero (165bb) I decided to flat call.
2 folds.
Button (102bb) a solid player calls.
SB folds.
BB calls (126bb). a vpip higher than 24% and a pfr above 18%.

Flop : pot: 10.5bb

BB checks.
UTG throws a CB of 4.5bb
Hero calls 4.5bb
BU folds.
BB raises to 14bb
UTG folds.
Hero calls 14bb.

Turn: pot: 43bb

BB bets 22bb.
Hero calls 22bb.

River: pot: 87bb

BB shoves 87.5bb
Hero ??

Here I'm thinking if he raises the flop with a 5 which he could have in his range. why shoving the river on a King ? My range has plenty of K. If he has a K why raising the flop vs UTG range (AA, AK, KQ) + a caller.
I'm tempted to call since the only hand that make sense is a busted flush draw and a lot of regs play their draws aggressively, BUT I decided to be disciplined and Fold.

All the players are very solid, in a situation as this we should look for a table where we can find fishes and whales to exploit/have edge upon them.
But it’s not a problem playing versus average regulars and NITS, the gameplay gets harder and our winrate tends to be thinner.
Owing suited aces in position, we are more inclined to 3-bet/Squeeze preflop, thus we do not give excellent odds to the players sitting in the blinds, we catch initiative and sometimes we can flat a 4-bet or even 5-bet to play IP.
On the flop is the same thought of preflop, we don’t like calling, although the board is not very connected we can bluff our flush draws and try to eliminate the blinds.
On the turn we have another chance to raise the BB and fold to further aggression, the fact that the BB has a high VPIP don’t show to us its hole cards, and BB can have more 5x and 22 in its range, since we gave good odds preflop and on the flop for it.
I’m afraid the best move on the river is the fold, ever since we are not expecting to be ahead of anything owning ace high. BB had shown a lot of strength on the flop/turn and if villain is in fact a recreational one (based on high VPIP frequency) he’s not bluffing more than betting for value. Villain’s bets are very straightforward on a semi-dry board and we should take it seriously, as I said, either we raise the turn card or we fold cause our equity drops down.

 

[Aballinamion]

And yes, I think @fundiver199 said something similar, if villain had a boat on the river why turn it into a bluff in this particular board configuration ? But we can never assume the opponent has the same mind and ideas we have. And fishes can be unpredictable sometimes.
It’s better to die out of curiosity than calling just to see some nonsense 5x or Kx in villain’s range.

 

[Highfish]

Keep it simple and just fold pre. Calling here is just asking for trouble.

 

[Station_Master]

As others have said, just fold pre.

I agree the river line looks odd, but he could have 55 or K5s. Also this is 10NL so he could have called pre with AK. There are plenty of available draws even with you having 2 diamonds but at 10NL this is underbluffed and I think 5x is the most likely hand and maybe he just shoves river as he is not sure what to do.

If he finds the 64dd bluff fair play to him!

 

[fundiver199]

but at 10NL this is underbluffed

In my opinion nearly all spots are underbluffed in 10NL full ring games. 6-max is a bit different, because the player pool is more aggro in general. But at full ring even the regulars are almost never balanced. They are multitabling and just playing their hand. So when they put in all their money, they tend to have the goods nearly every time. In this particular situation I will strongly question, if an average 10NL full ring player even have any draws, when they check-raise the flop on a paired board, where they could be completely dead to KK already, and where UTG has a lot of hands, that are just never folding.

I played these games quite a bit on pokerstars and 888 Poker 3-4 years ago. And if I am to give an advice to people playing them today, it is, that you make your life a whole lot easier - and also more profitable - when you learn to simply fold in spots like this. There is not enough bluffing going on in these games to justify making big hero calls. Folding also reduce variance and makes it easier to stay away from tilt. Making the big hero call here and losing a whole stack, because he has 75 and jammed the river, because he did not know what else to do, is pretty tilting.

 

[John A]

What's your position pre? It's not clear... looks like a preflop fold either way though.

As played, ez river fold at these stakes. Him having Kx or 5x doesn't make sense, but the great thing about micro stakes is, it doesn't have to.

 

[Aballinamion]

What's your position pre? It's not clear... looks like a preflop fold either way though.

As played, ez river fold at these stakes. Him having Kx or 5x doesn't make sense, but the great thing about micro stakes is, it doesn't have to.

Seating at MP I get dealt

He was sitting in the MP dear professor.
What do you mean by saying that villain owning Kx, or 5x doesn’t make sense? Forgive me if I’m wrong but a VPIP 24 could have called preflop owning K6s+, A2s+ (all suited aces including A5s) and 55+, and 55 would be his pocket pair bottom range, if the HUD information is precise.
Thanks

 

[fundiver199]

What do you mean by saying that villain owning Kx, or 5x doesn’t make sense? Forgive me if I’m wrong but a VPIP 24 could have called preflop owning K6s+, A2s+ (all suited aces including A5s) and 55+, and 55 would be his pocket pair bottom range, if the HUD information is precise. Thanks

When we try to put people on a range, it gets narrower for each street of action. KK should 3-bet preflop, so when he just call, we remove that from his range. KX was to in between to check-raise the flop in a 4-way pot against a strong UTG open range, so after the flop action we remove KX from Villains range. Hero however can have KX, and therefore Villain should not jam the river with 5X. Which mean that the only logical value hands, Villain can have, that should play like this on all streets, are 55 and K5s, which is only 3 combos. But as everyone seem to agree, its more likely, Villain has a strong hand, that should not have played like this, rather than a bluff.

 

[Aballinamion]

When we try to put people on a range, it gets narrower for each street of action. KK should 3-bet preflop, so when he just call, we remove that from his range. KX was to in between to check-raise the flop in a 4-way pot against a strong UTG open range, so after the flop action we remove KX from Villains range. Hero however can have KX, and therefore Villain should not jam the river with 5X. Which mean that the only logical value hands, Villain can have, that should play like this on all streets, are 55 and K5s, which is only 3 combos. But as everyone seem to agree, its more likely, Villain has a strong hand, that should not have played like this, rather than a bluff.

Thanks for your reply mate, I feel myself honored when you react to any of my posts. You are a poker model that I try to follow.
Now, I was trying to provoke our dear professor Anhalt, I like him very much and his book (Polished Poker Vol I had taught me a lot of good things and gave me such good insights). 😄
I also would like to revive the thread Polished Poker, but it seems professor Anhalt had gave up upon working on it, and many players aren’t interested in the thread anymore. Which is sad.

Well, one thing we all have agreed: he should’ve folded preflop. IMO, either he folds or he 3-bets, although UTG is a NIT player, having a suited ace as a blocker give us playability in the case villain calls.
There are hands there I never call in a situation like this, they are AA and KK, and the same goes for my bluffing range, the baby suited aces.
It’s possible that villain could’ve check-raised the pot having any Kx, but villain also could’ve thought that his Kx could be dominated for AK, KQ, of UTG’s range. I’m not sure if villain would’ve raised the flop owning K6s-K9s.
You are right, villain shouldn’t have jammed the river owning any 5x, but as professor Anhalt said, this is the micro stakes and everything is possible, although not common, we could find even KK in villain’s range.
Thanks for your massive contribution to the forum, I learn a lot from your posts!

 

[Station_Master]

Interesting discussion here.

One other thing to throw in - I actually think shoving a 5 on the river by villain isn't terrible, as does hero really have any Kx anyway. I believe this is called a 'merge' bet where you go for relatively thin value given there is only one bet size that makes sense (all-in is only 2/3rds pot based on effective stacks) and you may get looked up by worse bluffcatchers.

If villain has 5x and goes for check call, he gets value from bluffs, but by betting he can get some value from hero calls. If hero is not bluffing here than bet may be better. I assume if hero has a K villain with 5x gets stacked either way anyway.

Also when he bets more value hands, villain can have more bluffs and be balanced, which is of course highly relevant at 10NL

 

[John A]

He was sitting in the MP dear professor.
What do you mean by saying that villain owning Kx, or 5x doesn’t make sense? Forgive me if I’m wrong but a VPIP 24 could have called preflop owning K6s+, A2s+ (all suited aces including A5s) and 55+, and 55 would be his pocket pair bottom range, if the HUD information is precise.
Thanks

Because X/Ring w/ Kx on that board isn't ideal. 5x would make more sense, but then shoving 5x on the river doesn't of course. Nobody is trying to merge their range at 10nl lol. So Kx makes more sense between the two, but neither are ideal ways to play either of those ranges on this flop and run out.

But like I said, it doesn't really need to make sense at these stakes. Just believe the guy.

 

[rastapapolos]

Keep it simple and just fold pre. Calling here is just asking for trouble.

Yeah you're right, but I'm calling with the wheel suited Ace 30% of times from that position. I like to mix it up.

 

[rastapapolos]

Thanks all of you guys for your advices (@fundiver199 , @John A , @Aballinamion @Highfish , @Station_Master), it seems that the fold is the best option to take OTR.

 

[elhar0]

I think here easy fold , 0 blufs on this position and bords .

 

[Vallet]

I would like to try to answer your questions from the perspective of a player in the big blind.
Pay attention to the check-raise on the flop. UTG continues the pressure, you call and here I would defend the king or the fives to reduce the number of participants on the turn. The opponent with the flash draw will pay for any raise I make. Perhaps at this stage the player planned to play the entire stack.
A bet the size of half the pot on the turn would seem to have no serious significance. However, just this size is enough to push the remaining stack on the last street.
The king comes to the river. This is an unpleasant card if I have only the second full house of fives and kings. But I can't make a check and move away from my plan. Because this action will give you the opportunity to bluff and seize the initiative. And if I always had a king in my hand, now I have less reason to worry.
Your hand is blocking a possible flash draw for BB. Accordingly, there will be much fewer bluffs on the river.