$10 NL HE 6-max: Would you fold a set of Qs vs. suspicious turn check river shove?

[blueskies]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Stakes

$.05/$.10

Table Format

6-max (6 seats)

Currency

$

I start this hand with $8.94. Villain has $10.72. My account is down to 3 buy ins due to the worst run for me ever, and I just can't autotop now.

I get QsQd on CO. Raise to 30c. Villain is on BB. He 3bets to $1.33.

He's a reg with only a 4% 3bet percentage, I actually thought about folding but I called. Lately when someone with a low 3bet% 3bets me when I have JJ QQ or KK, it has been a higher PP.

3d4c5h flop. He cbets $2.02 into $2.71 pot. I shake my head and call.

Turn's As. He instachecks. I am thinking KK? I check.

River's Qc, so I am like yeah! But then he shoves and I am like goddammit. Smells like AA. What other hand would play like that?

I only have $5.59 left here. I hovered my cursor on fold a few times but before time expired I called...

Spoiler

AhAd

 

[Station_Master]

It sucks but you have to call at the end. He could have AK or AQ that might play this was or a stone bluff. Unless you are defending 76s ( which you should) than you dont have any better hands to call with assuming you fold AK, AQ on the flop

 

[mktpppr]

P: fine. 3bet sizing is slightly big, not crazy, but vs reggy 4% 3bet range its easy flat. Don't fold.

F: fine.

T: fine.

R: fine. It sucks but we have to call.

----------------

I assumed a tight flat vs 3bet range preflop.

Solver says we have to mostly raise or fold on the flop for our range, something like 50/5/45 for raise/call/fold because of the low 2.8 SPR. For our holding its 87/13/0 r/c/f. Our raise sizing is a jam over his big cbet, which looks like a big pocket pair protecting. I don't know how relevant this is in nl10, because I don't know if even regs can fold overpairs in that spot.

Turn is bad for us. Its bottom 15% of cards for us, and top 10% of cards for villain. No way to get around that.

I think villain bets both AK AQ on the turn.

River card sucks: I don't think we can make an exploitative fold here. We need more reads and bigger sample. For readless or limited reads we have to call.

 

[loafaBREAD]

First, move down my bro. I've been there before, it sucks. Reload when you can if you are set on 10nl, but might be better to stick to 2/5nl for a spell.

V has a 4% 3-bet... he also makes it 4x in position.

Versus a large size, we should be more incentivized to 4-bet/fold. The issue is that if you 4-bet you will just have to call a jam if he is shoving all his AK (actually not a bad spot). There is nothing wrong with this strategy.

The way to exploit a nit is to overfold when they show aggression. Like I said, 4% 3-bet is actually like 99+ and some suited Ax, so QQ is doing fine. [and this stat should be overall 3-betting, BU vs CO should be the widest of his ranges. We can mix up 4-betting and calling vs this V. (NITs will have trouble folding JJ, TT, AJs here as well, so you can profit even from 4-bets).

Anyway, on to the hand. we flat and board is low. V blasts here. This is where it is good to have other stats on V- how aggro is he post? Does he ever 75% AK here? 99? [lol how bad is he?].

No reads, must call.

Turn A, xx, looking good.

River Q, you should leadREALLY tiny here... like 10% pot. Ofc you will have to call off. If he has AA, then we can go back and revise our preflop or flop strategy. *I do see the "blast dry flop with the nuts since pop can't fold a pair" strategy at the low stakes, in which case we can nit it up OTF as well.

TLDR, 4-bet fold is fine pre vs a nit, you can certainly fold TT, 99 versus uber nits. You make money from winning small pots versus them, as they way under bluff.

 

[loafaBREAD]

Read the result. I still have trouble with spots like this. Takes a lot of discipline.

...

River's Qc, so I am like yeah! But then he shoves and I am like goddammit. Smells like AA. What other hand would play like that?

...

Spoiler

AhAd

Spots where V can ONLY have traps... or spots where V raises is spots where he shouldn't too much (no natural bluffs).

If we can deduce that the ONLY hand that plays this way is top set (this is actually a reasonable assumption! MF isn't blasting flop with AQ, xing turn!) then we CAN fold!

This is insanely hard to do with a limited time bank (or no time bank) and tons of other things to think about.... but thinking positively, these are spots to improve your discipline that will let you crush these Nits!

GL, reload and keep playing my dude.

 

[gustav197poker]

It's a super cooler and I really don't think we'll get enough reads after losing 3 BI's.
Now if you think the opponent is ultra tight, chances are V won't think about killing himself on the river with a hand like JJ or TT. Mainly because your preflop pay range includes hands like AXs from CO. That is, you can block 2 pairs on this board texture. And I guess this V won't 3-bet with random hands like 67s. So in theory, an ultra-tight villain should only have AA on the river. But it is extremely difficult to know. It takes hundreds of hands played with this V, to have an accurate idea.
Greetings.

 

[puzzlefish]

Even at 10NL there still just aren't enough bluffs playing like this. Is he trying to show weakness on the turn and induce you to bet by checking or is he legitimately wondering whether you may have flopped a straight? Whatever it was, when you get to the river he has no doubt that he has your hand beat. He has to wonder whether you have KK or QQ here, because your own line is pretty much played open book. You're either going to fold or call whatever he bets so he may as well bet the max.

 

[Aballinamion]

I start this hand with $8.94. Villain has $10.72. My account is down to 3 buy ins due to the worst run for me ever, and I just can't autotop now.

I get QsQd on CO. Raise to 30c. Villain is on BB. He 3bets to $1.33.

He's a reg with only a 4% 3bet percentage, I actually thought about folding but I called. Lately when someone with a low 3bet% 3bets me when I have JJ QQ or KK, it has been a higher PP.

3d4c5h flop. He cbets $2.02 into $2.71 pot. I shake my head and call.

Turn's As. He instachecks. I am thinking KK? I check.

River's Qc, so I am like yeah! But then he shoves and I am like goddammit. Smells like AA. What other hand would play like that?

I only have $5.59 left here. I hovered my cursor on fold a few times but before time expired I called...

Spoiler

AhAd

You will never play comfortable having only 3 buy-ins. I would recomend that either you make a deposit or try to build your bankroll by playing CardsChat freerolls, believe me, I have made USD 80 in about three months playing these freerolls. Maybe a little more or less, but I have built a solid bankroll!
Second, be careful with players that are known to be average regulars! Remember the basics of poker is to play in position versus weaker opponents (known fishes and whales). I said it because of Dan Bilzerian profits, because he faces weaker opponents most of times. The objective is to be profitable, not an arrogant such as Daniel Negreanu who prefers to win less but to face harder players! Let your ego aside.
Villain checks on the turn and you put him on KK. Is is possible, of course, but this is only one hand (not a combo) in his range. Try to think about the values and the bluffs, he might have KK but also AK, A5s, KQs, you name it.
You are playing IP and that’s nice, but versus a player with only 4% 3-bet this is too much.
I might be wrong, but let us suppose that he 3-bets 2% of times with his monster value hands and the other 2% of times he 3-bets with semi-bluffs that also have a lot of potential postflop to realize or complete its equity.
Villain’s 3-bet range looks like a 4-bet range, very strong and you just have said that you thought about folding it preflop...
You had other chance to fold on the flop because villain had polarized his range. Of course that with 4% 3-bet preflop he would not own baby pocket pairs in his range that could have made a set (22-66).
Villain overbets flop out of position and being a known regular that shows a lot of strength!
And try not to put the results of the hand because it changes a lot how many players are going to reply to you. Results doesn’t matter so try to keep them hidden.
I am not better than anyone but I don’t think it is fine to be calling polarized 3-bets vs NIT preflop, also calling a polarized C-bet sizing OOP OTF, and his instacheck was just a trap for you to fall, not a giving up.
There aren’t too many bluffs on Villain’s range, so be mindful.

 

[rastapapolos]

You could find a fold here.
Villain Has 3 combos of AA, 1 combo of AQs and 12 of AK.
I don't think that he jam AK with a queen on the river. your calling range has plenty of queens (QQ, AQ). With second nuts they generally do a PSB (pot sized bet or 80% pot) at this limit and They jam the nuts.
Preflop you thought about folding/ calling, but how about 4betting ? I think that you could have more information if you did 4bet imo.