$10 NL HE 6-max: Set of 4s facing aggression from station type

[blueskies]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Stakes

$.05/$.10

Table Format

6-max (6 seats)

Currency

$

I have 4s4d on BTN. Everyone folds. I limp in.

The reason I limped is both blinds are sticky station types so I don't want to raise the pot and go into a 3way flop. Looking to flop a set and value bet against calling stations.

I like to limp in position in this spot because I am trying to see the flop as cheaply as possible. I am not looking to play a 3bet pot or make fancy moves with only 44.

Flop is 4cTc7d.

Checked around. I bet 29c into 29c pot. (Pot is adjusted for rake) I expect they will call if they even have an ace or two overcards. To my surprise, SB raises to 74c. This is the first time in about 50 hands that I've seen him raise.

I have been on a very bad run. I'm off my bottom but lately it's been bad again. Just a few rounds ago I flopped a set of 5s vs. JJ but lost to a runner runner flush. So I've gotten timid and loser minded.

So against this check raise I'm thinking 77? I don't see a player like this playing a draw like this, so does he really have a set? But I can't fold. So I call.

Qs on turn. He bets $1.71 into $1.78. Hesitant call.

River is 9h. And he bets only $2.90 into $5.20 pot. I have about $5 left here. I just called instead of shove... What makes me suspicious here is that if he really had a set of 7s, he probably bets more than that. He can't really put me on J8. And if I had TT I probably woulda raised him on the turn. Or is he betting less to induce a call thinking I missed a flush draw? But he doesn't seem like that kind of player.

Spoiler

9c3c. Shocked me.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Even if both blinds call, the SPR is still deep enough for plenty of implied odds, when you flop a set, and "sticky station types" probably dont 3-bet all that much. So I would just make a standard raise. I feel, this limping strategy is overthinking the situation quite a bit.

Flop
Since its a limped pot, its really difficult to get the chips in, so as played I am ok with this pot sized bet. Its still only 29c, and they are going to give it action decently wide. When SB check-raise, we need a very specific and strong read to assume, this can never be a draw. You were the one playing with him, so I can not comment on that. But in general the majority of poker players know, that they can raise draws, and there are lots of draws available on this flop. So my default assumption would be, that this is most likely a draw.

But it could also be two pair mainly with T7, or maybe he is overplaying top pair with his AT or whatever. Finally it can also be a better set, but TT probably raise preflop, so that would mostly be 77. Given that we are most likely against a draw (in my opinion) I prefer to fastplay and put in a 3-bet with intention to get it in, if he comes back over the top. But just calling and looking to play the later streets is also ok.

Turn
As played I would also just call again when he bet almost full pot. You decided to slowplay on the flop, and he seem to be doing a good job at hanging himself, so lets give him a chance to continue with that on the river.

River
J8 and 86 got there, but for him to have that, it would need to be of clubs specifically. So I think, this was a very good runout for you. He now bet half pot leaving you around the same behind. I think, you have the best hand more than 50% of the time, and then a concept comes into play, which Bart Hansson from Crushlivepoker call "reverse pot odds". If you jam now, it does look very strong, but he will be getting 5:1, so he is not folding any hand, that is doing this for value. So as played I would jam. Folding is definitely not on the table. If he coolered you with a set over set or backed into a straight, it is, what it is.

Results
So he had a busted draw, which backed into a pair, and still continued bluffing. Or he blockbet the river, because he did not know what to do. Clearly this mean, that your idea, he would not raise a draw on the flop, was off.

 

[Aballinamion]

I have 4s4d on BTN. Everyone folds. I limp in.

The reason I limped is both blinds are sticky station types so I don't want to raise the pot and go into a 3way flop. Looking to flop a set and value bet against calling stations.

I like to limp in position in this spot because I am trying to see the flop as cheaply as possible. I am not looking to play a 3bet pot or make fancy moves with only 44.

Flop is 4cTc7d.

Checked around. I bet 29c into 29c pot. (Pot is adjusted for rake) I expect they will call if they even have an ace or two overcards. To my surprise, SB raises to 74c. This is the first time in about 50 hands that I've seen him raise.

I have been on a very bad run. I'm off my bottom but lately it's been bad again. Just a few rounds ago I flopped a set of 5s vs. JJ but lost to a runner runner flush. So I've gotten timid and loser minded.

So against this check raise I'm thinking 77? I don't see a player like this playing a draw like this, so does he really have a set? But I can't fold. So I call.

Qs on turn. He bets $1.71 into $1.78. Hesitant call.

River is 9h. And he bets only $2.90 into $5.20 pot. I have about $5 left here. I just called instead of shove... What makes me suspicious here is that if he really had a set of 7s, he probably bets more than that. He can't really put me on J8. And if I had TT I probably woulda raised him on the turn. Or is he betting less to induce a call thinking I missed a flush draw? But he doesn't seem like that kind of player.

Spoiler

9c3c. Shocked me.

It would be much better to you if you could stop limping into the pot, specially IP. What happens is what you have just wrote, you have no idea of villain range, because they checked in the blinds.
And you say they are calling station, so if they 3-bet preflop, giving size bet, you can easily call when the odds are on your side and easily fold when they polarize.
Use a raise size that would fit all of your values and bluffs: if you play close to 50% range from the BTN use a smaller sizing as 2.15, 2.2, 2.3 BB preflop.
If you play less than 30% range from the BTN use a bigger sizing as 2.4, 2.5, 2.7 BB preflop.
You should use the same sizing for your values and for your bluffs.
Calling station players don’t use to raise frequently, so ask yourself what V is trying to represent.
I see you assume that weak players are thinking the same as you are, but this is not real. Most of whales are only considering the brute value of their hands and nothing more; so as fundiver199 said, watch out for overthinking.
When you recognize you had lost your mind playing because of a cooler or whatever, quit the game and leave the table and go back to work upon your mindset and mental discipline.
It is the hardest part we have to work on it, our ego, so when you feel you are not giving your maximum, lose the tables and find your way out.
You don’t have the 4 or clubs so you shouldn’t bet pot, because you had limped preflop, you don’t know your V range, you didn’t expect a check-raise OTF, and your mind was a little disturbed because of your run out of set of 5’s versus JJ.
Like yourself I have no ideia what V is raising to, because I had LIMPED PREFLOP.
I don’t care about results, V could have shown 77 or AcXc, it doesn’t matter.
As played, I’m afraid I would put all the blinds OTF and go all in, to protect my entire range from the flush draw of clubs.
However, I’m not really sure, because I would do this in a raised pot, not a limped one.

 

[liuouhgkres]

As a general rule never fold sets, except maybe few situations where 4 suited cards are on the board or board is double paired. Also, don't slowplay mid-low sets, play them aggressively.