$10 NL HE 6-max: Set of 6s facing multiple oversize bets

[blueskies]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Stakes

$.05/$.10

Table Format

6-max (6 seats)

Currency

$

I have had many situations similar to this lately and I am really beating myself up on this one.

I have 6d6c on btn, Villain on HJ opens to 30c. I call. Everyone else folds. I have had about 150 hands vs. villain and he seems to be a decent TAG.

QdKh4s on flop. He leads out 23c into 75c pot. I call. The reason I called here is that I have had success floating the flop against him in position. He normally cbets and slows down if he misses. Most times he would fold if I follow up with a turn bet.

Turn is 6s! And I am thinking yowza! Then he bets $1.72 into the $1.21 pot.

WTF? Before he bet I was thinking raise but now I just called cuz suddenly it is smelling like he flopped a monster. Feels like he cbet small to keep me in and then raise the sizing to build the pot.

River is 10c. He's probably not betting like crazy with AJ so I didn't worry about a straight but then he shoves $7.10 into the $4.65 pot.

I am not liking my set at this point. He's not the kind of player who would overplay his hand like this unless he has QQ or KK. I don't think he would overbet like this even with QK.

Despite this read, I called like a dummy. FML.

With a solid read, it's a river fold right?

He knows I wouldn't call the turn bet unless I have a strong hand. And I know he knows this. So he's gotta be shoving because he thinks I have a strong enough hand where I am gonna call him.

Spoiler

QQ

 

[puzzlefish]

Yup. I haven't found strong turn and river bets to be full of Bluffs at these levels. Out-setted from the start. I don't think AA would play foolishly like this either.

 

[fundiver199]

If we dont think, he take this turn sizing with draws, then we only lose to KK and QQ, which makes it pretty much the same as having KK preflop. And for 100BB we typically should not fold KK preflop to a single opponent. So for me this is just one of those annoying hands, where we get "pipped" and have to pay our opponent off.

Its almost like, he could see your cards and picked the sizing, which was perfect against your exact hand rather than your range. Not saying, this was the case (I find a superuser at 10NL extremely unlikely), but this is why, it feels so bad. But here we need to remember, that poker is a long term game, and if for instance you had a hand like KJ or AT, he did you a favour by allowing you to get away very cheap (barring of course a superuser scam).

 

[mktpppr]

P: fine.

F: fine to make an exploitative call with your reads, even though flop hits villain hard.

Even readless solver says we mix a call 45% of the time.

T: fine, but your reads make villain's play worrying.

Readless this is a much easier call: solver says villain should barrel top pair and better, A-high and some other bluffs like this, even for this sizing.

R: this sucks hard, but even if villain is jamming only [KK QQ 60% of time + KQ 20% of time], while mixing the rest, it's still a call 50% of the time.

Problem is, we don't get to this spot with a better hand: we fold AJ on the turn.

Sample of 150 hands isn't great for turn and river tendencies, and I hear you with your reads, but we need more reliable turn and river stats before we fold vs river jam.

 

[puzzlefish]

it's still a call 50% of the time.

How do you pick whether to call or not? Flip a coin ?

 

[mktpppr]

How do you pick whether to call or not? Flip a coin ?

Solver output is to get an idea whether the decision is reasonable or not.

In this case, the decision to call is reasonable.

Randomizing decisions at the table is only relevant in rare situations: I think it's irrelevant at the table for any level below legit pro.

---------------

To answer your question more directly, an online random number generator when playing online is best.

When playing live, there are several ways to randomize, eg chip rotation, an analogue wrist-watch, suits of cards, etc.

 

[liuouhgkres]

if you want to play like a solver, it's a quick call I'm sure. But, the problem is micro stakes players always underbluff these spots, especially when they go overbet-overbet. Exploitatively you should fold this hand, because villain will show better set 90%+ of the time.

 

[mktpppr]

Of course I mean solver output from exploitatively adjusted inputs for OP's reads.

Nice try, but you didn't understand my comments.

 

[Station_Master]

Tough spot. I think I call down when at top of range, though you will get shown QQ or KK so often. Potentially then KQ is a better call as you are only losing to 2 likely combos instead of 6, but it's hard to fold sets!

As others have said this is an underbluffed line at the microstakes so you could consider folding river. I would probably sigh call, once in a while it will be a busted draw, 44 or KQ -probably often enough to make it a profitable call.

 

[fundiver199]

if you want to play like a solver, it's a quick call I'm sure. But, the problem is micro stakes players always underbluff these spots, especially when they go overbet-overbet. Exploitatively you should fold this hand, because villain will show better set 90%+ of the time.

The issue here is, he could have a worse hand for value. Mainly 44 or KQ. I dont think, there is any realistic way to say for sure, that this is ONLY a better set and NEVER a worse set or two pair. But I agree, its almost never a bluff. Another way to look at the situation is, that if he had picked a more normal sizing, would we really just have called down? I think, almost everyone would raise at some point, and in that case we still get stacked.

 

[fundiver199]

With a solid read, it's a river fold right?

The short answer is no. The fundamental problem here is, that 66 is literally the best hand, you can have, that arrive at the river like this. KK/QQ 3-bet preflop, and AJ/J9 fold on the turn, when he size this big. So if you dont call down with 66, you are folding 100% of your range to this line. This is obviously extremely exploitable. And how can you have a "solid read", if you never call? The only way to get a read is to sometimes call and see, what kind of hand the population takes this line with.

 

[Aballinamion]

I have had many situations similar to this lately and I am really beating myself up on this one.

I have 6d6c on btn, Villain on HJ opens to 30c. I call. Everyone else folds. I have had about 150 hands vs. villain and he seems to be a decent TAG.

QdKh4s on flop. He leads out 23c into 75c pot. I call. The reason I called here is that I have had success floating the flop against him in position. He normally cbets and slows down if he misses. Most times he would fold if I follow up with a turn bet.

Turn is 6s! And I am thinking yowza! Then he bets $1.72 into the $1.21 pot.

WTF? Before he bet I was thinking raise but now I just called cuz suddenly it is smelling like he flopped a monster. Feels like he cbet small to keep me in and then raise the sizing to build the pot.

River is 10c. He's probably not betting like crazy with AJ so I didn't worry about a straight but then he shoves $7.10 into the $4.65 pot.

I am not liking my set at this point. He's not the kind of player who would overplay his hand like this unless he has QQ or KK. I don't think he would overbet like this even with QK.

Despite this read, I called like a dummy. FML.

With a solid read, it's a river fold right?

He knows I wouldn't call the turn bet unless I have a strong hand. And I know he knows this. So he's gotta be shoving because he thinks I have a strong enough hand where I am gonna call him.

Spoiler

QQ

I don’t like the idea of floating the flop or the turn with any pocket pairs that have called IP. When we call in spots like this our range is capped to pocket pairs such as 22-99, because sometimes we are going to 3-bet TT+, even 77+ depending on villain.
Another possible hands on our range here are broadways and suited conectors.
Is a good read you made but you are not blocking villain’s range with your pocket pairs, if you had J9, JT, and calling hands like these that would block his/her range it would be fine.
On the river I would have folded because villain had completed many of his hands according to your description of 150 hands played and decent TAG.
OTT is is very hard to fold, so you would do well if you just call and even better if you raise.

 

[Tony_McTony]

if you want to play like a solver, it's a quick call I'm sure. But, the problem is micro stakes players always underbluff these spots, especially when they go overbet-overbet. Exploitatively you should fold this hand, because villain will show better set 90%+ of the time.

This is what I think to. Players at these stakes are honest.

 

[fundiver199]

Players at these stakes are honest.

Maybe they are "honest" AKA not bluffing. But why cant this be bottom set or top two pair going for value?