$10 NL HE 6-max: J9s in BB vs MP

[AcesUTGFold]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Stakes

$.05/$.10

Table Format

6-max (6 seats)

Currency

$

$0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

BTN: $12.94 (129.4 bb)
SB: $10.47 (104.7 bb)
Hero (BB): $10.37 (103.7 bb)
UTG: $16.57 (165.7 bb)
MP: $24.15 (241.5 bb)
CO: $10.00 (100 bb)

SB posts $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has J

9

fold, MP raises to $0.35, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.25

Flop: ($0.75, 2 players) Q

K

6

Hero checks, MP checks

Turn: ($0.75, 2 players) 9

Hero bets $0.44, MP raises to $2.07, Hero calls $1.63

River: ($4.89, 2 players) K

Hero checks, MP bets $4.89, Hero folds

No information about the opponent.

Turn: Unfortunately, I do not know what exactly he raises against my C-bet, so I took approximately this hand range.
I think if he checks such a flop IP, then he will have only about this hand range mostly on the turn, which also raises so big on my C-bet.



equity Win Tie

MP2 50.00% 49.55% 0.45% { Js9s }

MP3 50.00% 49.55% 0.45% { 99, Q9s, AhJh, QhJh, AhTh, QhTh, Jh8h, Th8h, 8h7h }

 

[gustav197poker]

Here on the turn if you think about calling that villain raise, it's because you're not going to fold on the river if the third OTR spade shows up. In that case you could turn your hand into a 3-bet, since you are drawing the best possible hand and you have no fold equity when you hit the river.
Calling that raise puts you in the worst spot, because you're representing a more polarized range and your opponent has an advantage.
He thinks that V shouldn't have many Kxs in his range, because he would look for more protection on the flop and that action was not observed at all. And it's something you should expect a lot from someone who opens at 3.5x when you don't have specific readings.
Your assessment of range is correct but you have lacked the initiative, since perhaps this villain has more bluffs than you think.
With Axss this V could have done the same, if you donk-bet on the flop. Indeed it makes sense to protect yourself more by making bigger openings when it comes to speculative hands, for instance with ATss and A8ss.
This could be a hand with more aggression from you from the turn and later jam the river. But how you played the fold OTR is fine.
Greetings.