Is 20K hands a good sample/How to look for leaks

party poker Cash Game NL10, 6max. Multitabling 6-8 tables. Using HEM3.

Playing about month and a half. Done 20k hands. Started of bad, then I was up several buyins and now I am down around 3-4 buyins. Thank god for rakeback and missions, so it feels like I am breaking even.

I need to find out what the problem is. I know know my flushes weren't coming around well past 2 weeks. I use implied odds formula when chasing straights or flushes when calling. Other times, I raise when chasing to take the pot there and then, and if they call they often give a free card on the Turn. And if they don't I use my implied odds formula again, as I can really smell the implied odds then, when they double barrel.

Pretty much all, aside very few, my flush draws where I invested heavy expecting implied odds just never bloody came. Situations like you 3bet UTG with 89s on the button, and BB and he calls. (I like to 3bet early positions sometimes, although its dangerous in the way that they are ahead of you and you get less folds, their range is a lot more predictable, and when the flop is mid low, they just lay down their AK, AQ, AJ, KQ).

Anyway, so pot is juicy 30bbs. I have position. Flop comes two tone A8J. I flopped a flush draw with a pair, and two pair and set draw. I know UTG like has the Ace and BB possibly too. Or high pocket pairs are around, straight draws too. My implied odds are huge, because chances will play for stacks by the river are huge. BB checks, UTG leads for 1.90. I calculate 11 outs for this hand (9 suits, plus 2 eights, exlude get 2 pair in case there is AJ.
My implied odds tell me I can call if I can extract 1 dollar on next street (if I hit of course). If villain from BB calls, I already have expressed odds. Villain B calls. Pot is 8.70. Effective stack 7.10. Turn card blank. UTG bets $4. I still have around 24% equity. I need to get $9.64 (inc. the $1 from previous street) to break even. Pot is 8.70. I need 90c and I know he still has 3.10 behind him. Plus villain in BB could call too, but he folds. And of course I miss, villain shoves and I fold.

This has happened so many times where I was investing into implied odds and the draws just wouldnt come. Just awful. Of course then again I was flopping and getting other flushes where no one had nothing, taking down small pots like 25 bbs.

My 2 pair were getting wrecked the past 3 weeks by runner runners (aside from one when villain flopped straight) and I lost multiple buyins after double barrels, when they got through on the River.


Is it possible to run bad for 20k hands? If not I got find my leaks, and how to find them in HEM? What do we look at Cbet success, 3 bet, etc.

120k hands

The generally accepted number often thrown around is 100k hands: however I think after 10k-20k hands you can start to get a basic sense of where you’re at but not yet enough to draw anything conclusive about winrates.

It sounds like you are relying a bit too heavily on “implied odds” which unlike pot odds are not based on strictly math. Sounds like you’re double barreling too often and also not being as mindful as we should be of pot odds when considering implied odds and effective stacks sizes . In other words, we might have implied odds to call if we know villain is going to pay us off if we hit our flush against their TPGK and effective stacks are big enough to make this profitable enough for all the times villain doesn’t pay us off or we don’t hit.

Implied odds IMO get over used and/or misused as excuses to call or bet rather than consider pot odds first then implied odds second.

Barrel a bit less (and I know this is 6 max so aggression is good) on implied odds , get to those draws a little cheaper than make them pay when you hit and they don’t. Yeah building pots on strong draw draws is great BUT if we bloat pots too much we’re blocking our own profitable odds to draw .