Vanessa Selbst's Bet With Jason Mercier - What do you think?

deaddep

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Yesterday, in the social networks one of the most discussed topics was the "drunken bet" Vanessa Selbst made with Jason Mercier. He has to pay her $10k if he does not win 3 wsop bracelets this year - and she has to pay him $1.8 million if he does. She tried to buy him our for $1000 the next morning - and for $100k after he won his first bracelet.

What do you think?

 16 06 2016 201826

 16 06 2016 201819
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deaddep

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Will pay if Vanessa if lose, what do you think?
 
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lulu pk

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Its 180:1 odds $10k vs $1.8mill to pay and not $108mill if she loose the bet.I think that she will pay if she loose.Otherwise she will lose credibility on the Poker community.
 
Debi

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Its 180:1 odds $10k vs $1.8mill to pay and not $108mill if she loose the bet.I think that she will pay if she loose.Otherwise she will lose credibility on the Poker community.

That 0 was supposed to be a dot lol.
 
dealio96

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haha this is insane! I honestly don't think he'll win 3 but I know she had to be shaking once he won his 1st hehe.
 
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She's stupid for even agreeing to it. More money than common sense.
 
deaddep

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Mercier is seventeenth in H.O.R.S.E a chance for the bracelet
!
 
lionking_kg

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Yep, I read a lot of crazy thing that Vanessa was done and ..... Actually she made same bet before with D.Urbanovich and she also been drunk. After Jason Mercier won 1st bracelet Vanessa realize that she was made dumb bet and try to buyout or cancel bet for 100k but Jason refused and, as he just said, he is ''Still #BraceletHunting''
Lol it would be nice if he won 3 bracelets :D:D:D
Keep on watchin'
 
PershingSt

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Typical Vanessa . . . Drunk women don't have any responsibility according to her social justice warrior self lol . . .
 
Debi

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Typical Vanessa . . . Drunk women don't have any responsibility according to her social justice warrior self lol . . .

Don't make this into a sexist issue - has nothing to do with women vs men.
 
deaddep

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I agree with Dakota, blame the alcohol and the extra overconfidence.
 
dealio96

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If you were Vanessa and you ended up winning the bet, would you accept the payment after all of this happened???
 
deaddep

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Today, Mercier, plays HORSE, Russian poker community predicts second bracelet.
 
pescaofish

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I like the"drunken bet"

I will like to by 10% of Vanessa´s “drunken bet” with Mercier, the probabilities of Mercier winning 2 more World level Poker Bracelets in the remainder of the year for me are very slim.
If he goes as predicted he will end the year with 2 Bracelets and will pay the “drunken” Vanessa only $10,000 . :deal:
 
smallfrie

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She needs to be accountable. She is one of the best most ruthless poker players there are and that is awesome however I can't remember who was in a video I watched a while back of her playing and she jammed on someone and they tanked for a long time and then called with A8 and Vanessa went over to the rail and just whined to Liv Boeree that the player had it in for her why does he keep calling blah blah (I think it might have been Boeree's boyfriend at the time) but anyway it struck me as pathetic, like he was supposed to soft play because it was her. She needs to realize that she is a Poker player/gambler and her opponents are not in it for her. How many drunks lose money at the poker table vs her? If she has a problem then she should get some help for it but she made the bet she can pay it if she loses just like everyone else .
 
jaymfc

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well as a gambler, you pay when you lose no matter how much it hurts.
but I don't think she has anything to worry about. I think 100k was more than fair buyout and he's an ass for not taking it after seeing how bad she wants out of it. also an ass for not taking $1000 the next day, I would have given him the $1000 and said the bets off, period. sorry, I was talking out my butt last night, I hope you do get 3.
I like them both as poker players but have no clue about their personalities. just giving my opinion :)
 
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She needs to be accountable. She is one of the best most ruthless poker players there are and that is awesome however I can't remember who was in a video I watched a while back of her playing and she jammed on someone and they tanked for a long time and then called with A8 and Vanessa went over to the rail and just whined to Liv Boeree that the player had it in for her why does he keep calling blah blah (I think it might have been Boeree's boyfriend at the time) but anyway it struck me as pathetic, like he was supposed to soft play because it was her. She needs to realize that she is a Poker player/gambler and her opponents are not in it for her. How many drunks lose money at the poker table vs her? If she has a problem then she should get some help for it but she made the bet she can pay it if she loses just like everyone else .
I don't remember an A8 hand, but I do recall an A9 vs 44 hand.

A9 wasn't soft playing her. Selbst 6bet jammed and A9 made a very risky call with A9o for their tournament life. It was a very risky play with A9o because, even though Selbst is super aggro, she is making the same play with a ton of hands that has the player crushed preflop. Yes, 6bet 44 is a bit spewy, but so is calling off with A9o. Selbst could easily be 6bet jamming QQ here, does that make A9o a good call?

In fact, if my math is correct, A9o only had ~30% of the stack invested before calling the shove for the rest of it. So, it wasn't like they were committed to the pot. I think they were getting just a little over 2:1 odds to call preflop, but are they beating Selbst's 6bet shoving range here? I think this is still a -EV play by A9o.

Also, keep in mind that after 10 minutes of tanking before calling, Selbst asked if her opponent had AJ as that's probably one of the only hands they would tank with for the rest of their stack, so Selbst probably felt she was in a race situation, but never against a hand like A9o.

Selbst knows you makes risky plays with your aggression, but 6bet jamming 44-as crazy as it may be-is definitely a much better play than calling a 6bet jam with A9o.

I don't think this has anything do with her prop bet and is completely unrelated. And while I think Selbst should be responsible, that pay out is pretty huge and we have to consider a person being drunk can't make the most rational decisions.

And do we even know if Selbst is the one that said she'll pay $1.8M? It's possible Mercier could've taken advantage of a drunken Selbst and said something like "If I don't win 3 bracelets, I pay you $10K and if I do, you pay me $1.8M." and Selbst agreed to something she didn't fully understand? [I don't know who suggested the bet first, so please correct me if I'm wrong.]

Why would anyone, who is thinking clearly, take such a small payout when you're risking a ton more? Granted winning 3 bracelets is hard to do, I still think risking $1.8M to win $10K is ridiculous.

But a bet is a bet, and drunk or not, you should still be responsible if you were aware of your actions. It's different if someone is taking advantage of someone who is near blackout drunk, but since I don't know the level of intoxication Selbst was in, it's hard to comment on that.

I think Selbst should stick by the bet with Mercier, but Mercier should consider that Selbst was intoxicated and not thinking properly and show a little mercy, but not drop the prop bet entirely. I think dropping it down to Mercier risking $10K to win $800K-$1M would be fair. Still high, but a lot more fair.
 
smallfrie

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I don't remember an A8 hand, but I do recall an A9 vs 44 hand.

A9 wasn't soft playing her. Selbst 6bet jammed and A9 made a very risky call with A9o for their tournament life. It was a very risky play with A9o because, even though Selbst is super aggro, she is making the same play with a ton of hands that has the player crushed preflop. Yes, 6bet 44 is a bit spewy, but so is calling off with A9o. Selbst could easily be 6bet jamming QQ here, does that make A9o a good call?

In fact, if my math is correct, A9o only had ~30% of the stack invested before calling the shove for the rest of it. So, it wasn't like they were committed to the pot. I think they were getting just a little over 2:1 odds to call preflop, but are they beating Selbst's 6bet shoving range here? I think this is still a -EV play by A9o.

Also, keep in mind that after 10 minutes of tanking before calling, Selbst asked if her opponent had AJ as that's probably one of the only hands they would tank with for the rest of their stack, so Selbst probably felt she was in a race situation, but never against a hand like A9o.

Selbst knows you makes risky plays with your aggression, but 6bet jamming 44-as crazy as it may be-is definitely a much better play than calling a 6bet jam with A9o.

I don't think this has anything do with her prop bet and is completely unrelated. And while I think Selbst should be responsible, that pay out is pretty huge and we have to consider a person being drunk can't make the most rational decisions.

And do we even know if Selbst is the one that said she'll pay $1.8M? It's possible Mercier could've taken advantage of a drunken Selbst and said something like "If I don't win 3 bracelets, I pay you $10K and if I do, you pay me $1.8M." and Selbst agreed to something she didn't fully understand? [I don't know who suggested the bet first, so please correct me if I'm wrong.]

Why would anyone, who is thinking clearly, take such a small payout when you're risking a ton more? Granted winning 3 bracelets is hard to do, I still think risking $1.8M to win $10K is ridiculous.

But a bet is a bet, and drunk or not, you should still be responsible if you were aware of your actions. It's different if someone is taking advantage of someone who is near blackout drunk, but since I don't know the level of intoxication Selbst was in, it's hard to comment on that.

I think Selbst should stick by the bet with Mercier, but Mercier should consider that Selbst was intoxicated and not thinking properly and show a little mercy, but not drop the prop bet entirely. I think dropping it down to Mercier risking $10K to win $800K-$1M would be fair. Still high, but a lot more fair.
I looked it up you are right it was A9, that really does not matter. She said at the rail at one point "i don't know why a friends going after me, he does it every tournament" The point I was making is that this attitude that somehow her friends should treat her differently at the table is the same attitude she seems to take with this Mercier bet. She seems to think hey since we are friends let me out of the bet. Mercier is not going to let someone who is not a friend out of a bet like this and she needs to figure out that people fiends or not that are gambling with you are not in it for you, they are in it for themselves.
 
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I looked it up you are right it was A9, that really does not matter. She said at the rail at one point "i don't know why a friends going after me, he does it every tournament" The point I was making is that this attitude that somehow her friends should treat her differently at the table is the same attitude she seems to take with this Mercier bet. She seems to think hey since we are friends let me out of the bet. Mercier is not going to let someone who is not a friend out of a bet like this and she needs to figure out that people fiends or not that are gambling with you are not in it for you, they are in it for themselves.
Oh, I didn't see any rail parts. Just the hand.

That does clarify some things.
 
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