Live Tournament Winrate Calculator -- 100% Free

dgiharris

dgiharris

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Hi guys. To my knowledge there does not exist a Poker Calculator that can tell you your theoretical winrate in LIVE tournaments. Basically, how do you know if a tournament is worth your time vs your Live Cash game winrate?

So I developed a Live Tournament Winrate Calculator that I hope the poker community finds useful. Here is what the front face looks like

CalculatorFrontFace_zpsa0c1dee2.jpg


You input tournament details and your stats (or best guesstimates) and the calculator will spit out tournament duration, when the bubble is reached, avg user duration, prize pool, payout averages, and then ultimately your winrate. It's fairly user friendly, all cells have comments explaining what to do... You simply plug in everything into the non-write protected cells.

The calculator is an Excel 2007 file so you need Excel or Excel compatible program to run it. I have it saved on google docs so you can download it by clicking the below link.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Byuo9ZAgMGHjdmhDMjY3dEY4SDA/edit?pli=1

A little red box pops up, DO NOT click "download" in that red box. for some reason that does not work. You have to go to the "FILE" tab in the upper left corner, click "FILE" then scroll down to "Download" and click that. Then file will download on your computer and then you are all set. You can also use shortcut keys "CTRL+S" and it will download :)

Its 100% free (no bs, no CC, no sign up, just click and download) and feel free to distribute and disseminate. My goal is simply to give back to the poker community and serious players will/should find it useful. At the very least you can play around with different stats to see just how sensitive your longterm winrate is. You will be surprised.

Lastly, feel free to post any comments about the spreadsheet (room for improvement, things you like, etc) in this thread

hope you like it

dgiharris
 
Aleksei

Aleksei

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AWESOME. I don't have Excel but I just exported it to Google Sheets. Thanks. :)
 
E

emirlidan

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so this takes online stats and converts them into what your live results should be?

I would never take online and compare it to live to me it's a completely different atmosphere
 
dgiharris

dgiharris

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so this takes online stats and converts them into what your live results should be?

Kinda yes and kinda no.

What this does is it just takes your stats (whether you have live stats or online stats) and just tells you what your winrate would be for a given live tourney based on those stats. So it provides a projection.

This has a lot of value as many live tourney grinders have no clue what their actual winrates are longterm. In reality, some live tourney grinders are wasting their time in smaller field smaller buy-in tourneys focusing on the $1k or $2k first place when in reality their longterm winrate in those tourneys are like $5/hr.

So the value here is that you can input various stats and see the corresponding winrates

...
I would never take online and compare it to live to me it's a completely different atmosphere

As someone who plays both live and online tourneys (especially before black friday) I have to kinda disagree.

Yes, live and online are apples and oranges BUT if you are a good online tourney player that has ALSO acclimated to live tourney play then if anything you will be a BETTER Live tourney player and your online stats will be underrepped when you translate them into live player stats.

So in that regards, the calculator still has a lot of value. As you accumulate more live tourneys and you gain more confidence in your live tourney stats, you can then update them in the calculator...

In any event, the calculator is just a projection showing you what is possible. If you have solid online stats then you should still feel comfortable more or less putting them into the calculator to project what your winrate would/could be in various live tournaments. And this goes doubly so if you are also acclimated to Live tourney play...
 
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