Good Play, Bad Play, Good Variance, Bad Variance

Good Play, Bad Play, Good Variance, Bad Variance

I’m playing mostly MTT’s and I’ve been trying to find out if I’m playing mostly good or bad and to what extent variance is influencing the results.

I have Holdem Manager 2 and I see that I make money (that's a good start). But I can’t figure out what report would give me the part variance is playing in the results.

From what I’m seeing in the hand replayer I mostly get the money in good but I get bad results. Just judging by the last hand of each tournament, if I were to experience good variance and my hands held just one more time when I'm ahead, my profit would skyrocket big time.

Anyway it would be nice to have a report say: "You are playing good but you are experiencing bad variance" or "You are playing bad but you are getting good variance" or "You are playing average and you are getting average variance".

Any ideas?

I don't play many MTTs, and don't generally spend much time reviewing how lucky/unlucky I am, but you will want to try using some of the various More Filters options. The most obvious one that comes to mind would be the More Filters > Advanced Filters > Other > Allin Win% is... > Greater than: 50% so you can see how you run when allin with 50% or greater equity. Once you have filtered you can use the various Reports like the More Reports > Overall and even use the popout Graph > Options > [x] Show All-In EV to see your EV line for the hands where you were ahead when all in.

Regards,

fozzy71

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Thanks

That's the kind of report I was looking for.

You are running above allin EV in those +50% situations so your hands are holding.

I ran the same report and as I suspected I'm running below EV in those same situations. So my hands are not holding. I thought I was dreaming but no... I'm really running bad.

Sometimes in key situations near the bubble, losing a hand when you're a big favourite can be so tilting.

Gorak said:

Sometimes in key situations near the bubble, losing a hand when you're a big favourite can be so tilting.

Click to expand...

For sure. Those are the spots that can make a big difference.
It's the nature of MTT play. Balances out in the longrun but the long run is reallyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy long.

And the "long-run" can seem like forever ... I had a long-run slide of -25K with an abi of $80/event before i turned it around. Even in hindsight (ie HH reviews and such), I DID find I was playing reasonably well but running like ass.

If you find you're making the right decisions and just suffering nasty beats, I urge you NOT to alter your game. The law of large numbers does imply that if you keep getting in with the best of it, in the long-run you will be a winner.

depends how long the long run is ,i always adjust my game,
if i'm getting bad beat change site...it can work,