EV in PT3/HEM.

Lately i have really not taken this stat very seriously, but am i wrong to do so? I know it can be a good measure of how youre running, but so many hands get beat on the river, and all previous action is discounted...or is that not correct?

Say you open ak, flop comes A78r, turn 5, river 7, and lets say 70% of the money went in on or before the turn, then the rest came on the river and you call and opponent shows 72o, doesnt that make it -ev in HEM since you were beat on river but still called/bet?

Also it doesnt account for FE and etc on maybe open ended str flush draws which get shoved...

It is a very bad indicator of how you're running cause it doesn't account for coolers and situations where you might get in on the river after being sucked out on. Basically ignore it, I know i don't sometimes but you should. Also it does take into account draws you shoved, if you 50% equity the line will continue straight but obviously the money line will go up or down.

Yeah, it's not the greatest indicator of how you're running, as there are plenty of other ways to run bad playing poker. But it can be a truer indication of your actual win rate than your actual winnings are.

EV stands for expected value... It does nothing to show how well you are running or how poorly for that matter. It's the expected value for your hand vs. the FT&R. And 2 Random Cards for your opponent.

Sean Pilgrim said:

It does nothing to show how well you are running

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No.

Sean Pilgrim said:

And 2 Random Cards for your opponent.

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And no.

Well, I'm confused then...

Sean Pilgrim said:

Well, I'm confused then...

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It only calculates an all in EV if you are all in before showdown. Otherwise, it just figures your EV is the same as your actual winnings.

So if we're playing $50NL, and we both have 100bb stacks, and I jam QQ and you jam AKs preflop, then your EV is about -$5, and mine is $5 (because QQ has roughly a 55% chance to win against AKs).

Thus, if you do that 4 times, the QQ hand would be up $20 on average (and thus would have an EV of $20). However, if you lose all four times with QQ, your actual winnings would be -$200. It shows you that you're running bad.

However, there's a ton of other ways to run bad playing NLHE that EV doesn't take into account. So you could actually be running awesome, but be below all-in EV, or vice versa.

Okay... I see now. TY