re: Poker & Your thoughts?.. (P,KK)
Originally Posted by WiZZiM
2400 out of a stack of 25k. Long term do you really think calling that blind is a good idea? Lets just do some guesstimates here. Lets say the flop comes with cards higher than our 66 some 60% of the time. So automatically, we're screwed. Out of the other 40%, lets say 30-35% of flops we're kinda ok about, but we really have no idea. Then that leaves the 5% of flops we're over the moon about. So it's really not as simple as saying we're getting 2.6 to 1 on a call here now is it? We're too short to be dicking around postflop, we have only a few moves, and most of those moves on the flop involve folding and looking stupid.
OP played the hand fine, getting it in here with KK all day long, there really isn't anything else to think about.
So 40% of the time we are fine. Or 2.5 to 1. We're getting 2.6 to one. So its slightly +EV, even before you factor in stacking him off if you make your set.
60% for 3 overcards feels to high as well, can someone work it out? 2 overcards, yes, but 3, no.....
It's one of those close call decisions, and for me, I like to protect my BB so it doesn't get stolen, so investing 2400 on a very slightly +EV isn't a bad play, but probably not a good one either.....