This is a discussion on Can you use BBwon over Hands Played to reduce the need for a huge sample size? within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Poker section; okay, so we all know tournament players have a tough time figuring out if they're actually profitable long term because over 1000 tournaments, we are
Can you use BBwon over Hands Played to reduce the need for a huge sample size?
okay, so we all know tournament players have a tough time figuring out if they're actually profitable long term because over 1000 tournaments, we are unlikely to be playing the same games or even be the same player. cash game grinders dont have this problem because they measure profitability by BB/100hands. can we use a sample of 10,000 hands in tournament play to determine profitability over a smaller sample?
for example, I have a sample of 10,000 hands in tournaments, and have an all-in adj BB/100 of 8.5.... obviously it would probably be very dificult to figure out exactly how profitable this is, but is this a good indicator of atleast playing a long term winning game?
20th February 2017, 5:56 AM
Online Poker at: Pokerstars
Its interesting what you are bringing to the table. I personally think it wouldn't be good because in tournaments stacks vary a lot. Lets say you are very nitty and in many tournaments you become short, its very likely you will win more all ins than the ones you loose because you are a nit, but your stack will come short again because you don't play many hands. It only takes to lose 1 all in to get knocked out. In this example, being way too nit is a serious leak, but this statisic would reflect you are doing good when you probably aren't.
This statistic would mix hands playied bigstack and shortstack, I'm no expert but I think this shouldn't be made
20th February 2017, 6:20 AM
re: Poker & Can you use BBwon over Hands Played to reduce the need for a huge sample size?
I don't think BB/hands played is a very good measure in a tournament. Why?
1) Tournament blinds change, so unless you are constantly retro actively adjusting for chip values(which doesn't make sense), 2 hours later into a tournament 1bb can be worth what 10bb used to be.
2) Value only comes when you cash out. It would be probably better to use cashout/buyin
3) If you are adjusting for all ins (is that what you mean by "I have an all-in adj BB/100 of 8.5") you will have an extremely high BB/100 compared to cash games, but it wont reflect the short stack situation that require you to all in frequently in tournaments. And if you are somehow discounting those all in loses that would also increase your BB/100
20th February 2017, 9:02 AM
Online Poker at: пl
I do not hammer his head statistics, and act on the situation)))