"You pushed with what??"-- Shoving with junk question

cjatud2012

cjatud2012

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I've got an ICM related question, and I'd like to use this hand to help ask it:

poker stars $2.00+$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t150/t300 Blinds + t25 - 9 players - View hand 471506
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: t7830 M = 11.60
SB: t6050 M = 8.96
BB: t1054 M = 1.56
UTG: t7355 M = 10.90
UTG+1: t7290 M = 10.80
UTG+2: t2035 M = 3.01
MP1: t3901 M = 5.78
MP2: t5135 M = 7.61
Hero (CO): t1780 M = 2.64

Pre Flop: (t675) Hero is CO with 8 :diamond: 2 :heart:
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t300, 3 folds, Hero ???

Here, my hand is complete and utter trash, but I can increase my stack by 50% if I can take it down pre-flop. In general, is pushing here profitable, even with this type of hand? How often do opponents need to fold in order for this play to have a positive expectation? What if the pot is only 33% of my stack? If someone could help me derive an equation, too, that'd be hugely helpful.
 
dufferdevon

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There's one problem with your scenario, the Big Blind has less chips than you and has to call as 1/3 of his chips just went into the middle in the Big Blind. He's getting the right odds to call your shove with ATC.
 
No Brainer

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Even if the BB had a medium size stack you arre still pushing through two of the three biggest stacks on the table which could be a problem aswell.

If all three were medium size stacks, say around t2000-t3000 I think you would be more likely to shove...
 
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WiZZiM

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plus the original limper isnt going to fold a lot of hands here i wouldnt imagine, he only really needs 2 to 1 to call with any two, but he isnt limping in with any two so its an easy fold....
 
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

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I understand the situation I gave isn't perfect-- the relevant info was that I had a worthless hand, and the pot represented a large portion of my stack. So let me create two new scenarios that are more appropriate.

First, lets' pretend that I'm playing a nine-handed turbo tournament. I'm in the hijack with a junk hand, and my stack is t2100. The blinds are t200/t400 with t50 antes, so the initial pot is t1050. The rest of the stacks at the table are around t3500, and the action folds to me.

Then let's say that blinds are t400/800 with t75 antes, so that the initial pot is t1875. I have t6000 behind, and the rest of the players have t10000 behind. I am dealt XX in middle position and no one open limps.

In each of these spots, what percentage of the time do my opponents need to fold for my shove to be profitable? Hope this is more clear.
 
c9h13no3

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You're getting called by the BB, fold.
 
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TopDonk

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you should not really be shoving to light after an early limper imo, as you will often be called
 
Poker Orifice

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THis is actually a terrible spot in your example. Not only is BB pot committed by posting their blind but the limper is calling 99.9% of the time as well ( 0.01% folding as some crazy shite happens.... I've seen a guy fold while getting over 70to1).

I think what you're really asking here is something more along the lines of, "When is right to be pushing with any two cards in LP on high blinds"
There's a few things to consider with a scenario like this (ie. are we the only stack that's short, is there one random stack equal to or less than our's, etc.). I've got a few shoving charts that were given to me by some top SNG players, outlining different ranges that it's +EV to be shoving with in relation to our position & the size of our stack in relation to the size of the blinds (and taking into consideration something like.. all stacks = 2x our stack except for perhaps one random being ~equal and another being smaller).
I could give you an example of when to shove 82o. We're in SB w 2bb's, shove atc (any two cards, 100%). 3bb's is shove with top 93.4% (82o doesn't quite fall within the Top 93.4% of hands, it's actually in Top96.4%).
 
dd_decker

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If you are thinking of making a play in that spot, it would be better (still bad!) if you had 10,9 off or Q,9 off instead of 8,2. That way, if your move fails and you get a caller (very likely here)...at least you have a better chance (slim) of sucking out... Bottom line is -Don't make the play! :eek:
 
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

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I think what you're really asking here is something more along the lines of, "When is right to be pushing with any two cards in LP on high blinds"
There's a few things to consider with a scenario like this (ie. are we the only stack that's short, is there one random stack equal to or less than our's, etc.). I've got a few shoving charts that were given to me by some top SNG players, outlining different ranges that it's +EV to be shoving with in relation to our position & the size of our stack in relation to the size of the blinds (and taking into consideration something like.. all stacks = 2x our stack except for perhaps one random being ~equal and another being smaller).
I could give you an example of when to shove 82o. We're in SB w 2bb's, shove atc (any two cards, 100%). 3bb's is shove with top 93.4% (82o doesn't quite fall within the Top 93.4% of hands, it's actually in Top96.4%).

Yes, this is what I was most curious about. I think I made a big mistake in using the hand I did, and everyone seems to be really hung up on it. So that's my fault. I tried to post some better examples, I'd appreciate if I could get some feedback on what the bottom of my range should be, and how often I should be looking for my opponents to fold for such a shove to be profitable.
 
salim271

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If the BB was medium stacked I don't think its a good enough play with junk... semi junk maybe... at least one face card or suited connectors/one jumps.
 
Poker Orifice

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Yah.... I hear ya. It seems others are now missing the question you've actually intended.
I've got a few pushing charts, one in particular is from a guy who was #1 on Sng Leaderboard for 2009 (& is currently #1 for 2010). I'll see if I can pm it to ya (it's ranges of hands based on the size of your stack & the position sitting on the table... based on Nash ICM & Pokerstove).
 
cjatud2012

cjatud2012

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Yah.... I hear ya. It seems others are now missing the question you've actually intended.
I've got a few pushing charts, one in particular is from a guy who was #1 on Sng Leaderboard for 2009 (& is currently #1 for 2010). I'll see if I can pm it to ya (it's ranges of hands based on the size of your stack & the position sitting on the table... based on Nash ICM & Pokerstove).

That would be awesome, I would really appreciate that. Let me know if I need to do anything.
 
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