WSOP ME Question from a Legitimate Poker Pro

CAMurray

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We have tons of legitimate poker pros living here in Nevada.

Jason Stern is a local pro and a friend. You may have seen him on one of the WPT final table programs.

A couple of years back he posted a blog question and was amazed at the answers.

I would like to share his question here to see how CCers might play the following hand.

Its the first hand of the wsop main event. You are in the BB with blinds at 50-100 and all the players having 30K starting stacks. The action is folded around to the SB. As he is lifting his cards up you see that he is holding AQ. He shockingly announces that he's all in. You peek at your cards and you have AK.

All ethic issues aside, what do you do?
 
Poker Orifice

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We have tons of legitimate poker pros living here in Nevada.

Jason Stern is a local pro and a friend. You may have seen him on one of the WPT final table programs.

A couple of years back he posted a blog question and was amazed at the answers.

I would like to share his question here to see how CCers might play the following hand.

Its the first hand of the WSOP main event. You are in the BB with blinds at 50-100 and all the players having 30K starting stacks. The action is folded around to the SB. As he is lifting his cards up you see that he is holding AQ. He shockingly announces that he's all in. You peek at your cards and you have AK.

All ethic issues aside, what do you do?


I call.
And the only way I would ever fold is if I look around my table & see that is filled with complete droolers, knowing I'll have TONS of oppurtunities to pick up chips where I might not have to put 200bb's in as a 2to1 fav. on the very first hand... but honestly even then I cannot see myself folding (maybe I am one of those droolers).
 
TheGenera1

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Interesting question. I have two answers
Am I properly rolled for this event?
I call

I somehow got in for a cheaper price, or for some reason saved up and spent it all on the WSOP. I still call but close my eyes.
 
lovemiscou

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I would fold it, It's to early in the tournament to flip, plus he could have AA or KK, so wy risk it so early, still lots of time to get chips, the only hands i am calling an all in with is AA and KK.
 
CAMurray

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I would fold it, It's to early in the tournament to flip, plus he could have AA or KK, so wy risk it so early, still lots of time to get chips, the only hands i am calling an all in with is AA and KK.

While he lifted his cards you inadvertently see he has AQ and you have AK.
 
lovemiscou

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While he lifted his cards you inadvertently see he has AQ and you have AK.

Didn't read question right lol. I am all in before he starts putting his chips in.
And praying for no Q to come.
 
pocketelf0

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CALL

call and cry as a queen hits the flop
 
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No question I call and live with it should I lose.
 
Kenzie 96

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Call, likely double up as well as table image of a loose cannon.
 
WVHillbilly

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I call. If you fold here that means the only hand you could ever call with in this scenario is AA. AK has more equity against AQ than everything but AA.

In fact I call if I only see 1 card and it's a Queen which would of course allow for QQ as well as AQ.
 
detroitjunkie

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auto call - no doubt. hard to think this actually happened or was Jason just putting something out there for people to talk about?

All ethics aside its a no-brainer call every time, and for anyone to say any different they are scared players and do not understand poker very well. If you are afraid of being outdrawn then you have no business playing in the first place PERIOD!

Now, I can see a point to where yuo muck your cards and tell the guy you saw what he had, thats the ethical thing to do, but this is gambling, ethics have no place here (as long as you are not breaking the rules or angle shooting, which I do not believe this would be because his action was already over before you did anything)
 
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I'm trying to view this as what I would need to do in order to get to the WSOP ME in the first place based on my financial status now. I would have to:

-set a reasonable goal date
-save lots of money [not just for WSOP but airfare, hotel, food, etc]
-plan the trip
-possibly sacrifice a lot of time with others [skip out on holiday trips, events, etc]

Let say it takes me 3 years of saving, planning, drawbacks due to emergencies , etc for me to finally play in the WSOP ME. So, to be in this situation on the first hand, I feel like I'm risking a lot more than just getting KO'd. Losing the 10K buy-in isn't the issue, but all the time spent preparing and saving to get this point. Is 3 years waiting worth risking as a 75% favorite?

Maybe I'm over thinking it, but that's what I do sometimes. But, if I'm in this situation, I feel like I would fold. Mathematically, it's not the right fold and I agree, but for as a player who waited 3 years to get here and may only play 1 WSOP ME in a lifetime, wanting my experience to be a bit longer in the WSOP ME would play a huge factor in my decision to fold.
 
STL FAN

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Hope all is going well and hope everyone had a happy New Year. I would fold because of not wanting to reduce my skill against someone who has made fundamental error of not protecting their hole cards. Whether I did not see their cards or have put them on exact hand and then fall prey to all five cards without no way of folding is near the bottom of how I prefer getting double ups. The only way I change my decision would be if they still bet their hand, and I saw their hole cards then I would always be empirical with my decisions in this scenario, so, going all in the first hand and making this call, the outcome has already been decided from the cards that come out and nothing is going to stop what is going to happen.

The other side of the coin not putting in your chips to risk X amount of blinds because of the risk reward scenario is a great gamble especially knowing their hand before the chips go in and not taking advantage of this situation could be a mistake. Trusting my reads before all the chips go in is also what I look for in certain situations that usually have some empirical information about the opponent and the situation even though, I cannot see their hole cards as of yet.

However, the length of time it will take to run deep, the tournament being the first hand of the first hour, I believe I could find better spots; they will present themselves that I can use my skill for better situations to win pots without showdown, because the opportunity to get all my chips in pre-flop will present themselves from time to time, this tournament is the World Series of Flips. I would still look for better spots to use my skill and know people will be willing to put all of their chips in when they are comfortable anyway.

MTT’s when I play them are played against the structure of the tournament, opponent reads are secondary until I build a better model of information to exploit, keeping my options open because of how long the length of tournaments are especially this tournament. If this guy is this weak to show hole cards, I would bet they will make other mistakes that would not require my whole stack being at risk pre-flop or near the majority of my stack.
 
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I'm trying to view this as what I would need to do in order to get to the WSOP ME in the first place based on my financial status now. I would have to:

-set a reasonable goal date
-save lots of money [not just for WSOP but airfare, hotel, food, etc]
-plan the trip
-possibly sacrifice a lot of time with others [skip out on holiday trips, events, etc]

Let say it takes me 3 years of saving, planning, drawbacks due to emergencies , etc for me to finally play in the WSOP ME. So, to be in this situation on the first hand, I feel like I'm risking a lot more than just getting KO'd. Losing the 10K buy-in isn't the issue, but all the time spent preparing and saving to get this point. Is 3 years waiting worth risking as a 75% favorite?

Maybe I'm over thinking it, but that's what I do sometimes. But, if I'm in this situation, I feel like I would fold. Mathematically, it's not the right fold and I agree, but for as a player who waited 3 years to get here and may only play 1 WSOP ME in a lifetime, wanting my experience to be a bit longer in the WSOP ME would play a huge factor in my decision to fold.

Then you're playing out of your roll. If it was a game you were properly rolled for would you make the same decision? Probably not. That's why you don't play games you're not comfortable playing.
 
PokerFunKid

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Ofcourse we (snap) call, if you fold here you shouldn't play the wsop main event. Even if you have a huge edge in the field. This is a huge spot to double up while dominating your opponent.
 
Carl Trooper

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In theory I call,

but since I've lost to AQ in 75-80% of tourneys for the last 4.5 years (serious) i'd probably fold.
 
PokerFunKid

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In theory I call,

but since I've lost to AQ in 75-80% of tourneys for the last 4.5 years (serious) i'd probably fold.

All you can do in these situations is make the right move. If you lose to AQ, atleast you made the correct decision. I think it is wrong to say you call in theory and it is the best move, but would fold because you lost to AQ for the last 4,5 year for 80% of the time.

Yes it sucks if you lose to AQ (again). But i would be more mad at myself for folding in that spot then losing to AQ.
 
Carl Trooper

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All you can do in these situations is make the right move. If you lose to AQ, atleast you made the correct decision. I think it is wrong to say you call in theory and it is the best move, but would fold because you lost to AQ for the last 4,5 year for 80% of the time.

Yes it sucks if you lose to AQ (again). But i would be more mad at myself for folding in that spot then losing to AQ.

The pain that AQ has had on me may change your mind.

Never has one thing in life had me talking to myself for so long... lol


Trust me... I know rationally what is right, and I still make the right moves.. but when you keep losing to one hand, starts to make yourself question your sanity:confused: :confused: :confused: :confused:
 
PokerFunKid

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The pain that AQ has had on me may change your mind.

Never has one thing in life had me talking to myself for so long... lol


Trust me... I know rationally what is right, and I still make the right moves.. but when you keep losing to one hand, starts to make yourself question your sanity:confused: :confused: :confused: :confused:

I understand it, but all you can do is make the right move in poker. Your goal is to play the best you can in a tournament, right? Then all you can do is hope the cards will fall right. I know you you know it is right to call with AK. But you should make the right decision then, even against the evil AQ. Its all about statistics. Gotta call here lol. Even with your history with AQ. :D

Its like doing a coinflip with a mate for $100 and he offers you $350 if you win. You wouldn't say no because you are bad in flipping and lost 80% of your flips the last 4,5 years.
 
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Then you're playing out of your roll. If it was a game you were properly rolled for would you make the same decision? Probably not. That's why you don't play games you're not comfortable playing.
Well, obviously I don't have the BR for playing the WSOP ME if [in my example] it takes me 3 years, but this isn't about BRM. I don't think a lot of the players that play the WSOP ME are properly rolled to play the game. I mentioned in my first post, losing 10K is no the issue, so the money has no affect on my decision to fold.

Like I said, mathematically the call is correct and I agree with the math. However, given the question, I'm looking at it from my POV as who I am now. I'm not rich and deciding to play the WSOP is a huge and probably a once in a lifetime deal. My edge at the game would be so small, that I'm very likely playing for the experience with the hope of running deep more than anything else. So, I would feel that risking all the time spent saving, sacrificing, planning, set-backs, etc to get to the WSOP ME would not be worth me risking for a double on the first hand. Especially if I feel like that a double doesn't necessary increase my edge over the field. So, I'm not really gaining much but risking a lot more. Given that we're very deep stacked and blinds last 2 hours (i think), there will be plenty of opportunities as the game progresses. The only hand I call an all-in here in this situation is AA.

If I was properly rolled, would I make the same decision? Of course not, because there would be a lot less planning and saving needed to play the WSOP ME, so that factor would have less of a impact on my decision. I can just take another shot next year and the year after, etc. That's not something I can do now. If I was properly rolled, the WSOP ME would be just one of many big MTTs I would be playing.
 
Carl Trooper

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Well, obviously I don't have the BR for playing the WSOP ME if [in my example] it takes me 3 years, but this isn't about BRM. I don't think a lot of the players that play the WSOP ME are properly rolled to play the game. I mentioned in my first post, losing 10K is no the issue, so the money has no affect on my decision to fold.

Like I said, mathematically the call is correct and I agree with the math. However, given the question, I'm looking at it from my POV as who I am now. I'm not rich and deciding to play the WSOP is a huge and probably a once in a lifetime deal. My edge at the game would be so small, that I'm very likely playing for the experience with the hope of running deep more than anything else. So, I would feel that risking all the time spent saving, sacrificing, planning, set-backs, etc to get to the WSOP ME would not be worth me risking for a double on the first hand. Especially if I feel like that a double doesn't necessary increase my edge over the field. So, I'm not really gaining much but risking a lot more. Given that we're very deep stacked and blinds last 2 hours (i think), there will be plenty of opportunities as the game progresses. The only hand I call an all-in here in this situation is AA.

If I was properly rolled, would I make the same decision? Of course not, because there would be a lot less planning and saving needed to play the WSOP ME, so that factor would have less of a impact on my decision. I can just take another shot next year and the year after, etc. That's not something I can do now. If I was properly rolled, the WSOP ME would be just one of many big MTTs I would be playing.



I agree to this.

The planning alone + time (flights 7+ hours and more for others ) + time off from work + everything else to lose that 25% pot makes it a lot harder to call.

Regular tourney or even a higher buyin tourney thats local to me? Yeh im calling.

But the headache of the travel to just bust right away ,:(


Not saying I 100% fold, but I may talk myself out of it.
 
TheGenera1

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Yeah losing the pot would suck, but getting in as a 75% favourite in a tournament is a god send. You all speak of better spots? What better spots, this is HUGE. Most of the time you're getting it in as a slight favourite or underdog and being pretty happy with the move.

I know it would suck, but honestly what better spots are there? Can't sit around waiting for AA, and even then you're 82% favourite which is only 7% more than as a 75% fav with AK v AQ
 
teepack

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I would fold it and tell the dude to protect his cards next time. I am not going to risk my ME life on the first hand of the tourney, even if I am a 75% favorite. The risk (getting knocked out of the tourney) is not worth the reward (a double-up). The ME is a marathon and not a sprint and you're not going to win it on the first hand.
 
detroitjunkie

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For all of you who say you would fold because of ANY reason you are fools and should not play poker. You are a huge favorite.

If you are folding because you would hate to see 3 years of saving go away in the first hand then you should not be buying in. SCARED MONEY IS THE WORST TO PLAY - fear is the most common tell picked up by any good players and you will be eaten alive anyways! So why even buy in.

CALL CALL CALL - there is no other answer, if you think there is you are fooling yourself with falsities and are a scared player who should not be in the game.

Dont fear the MUB - if you dont know what this means look it up.
 
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