Was this WSOP hand played badly ?

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RickAversion

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HQCUEGiNYI

Hand 1 (at 11:00)
Vogelsang vs. Solomon
After the flop, V checks. Solomon checks.
Should Solomon have bet 50% of pot?
Turn, V checks, and Solomon bets 20% of pot.
V calls b/c of flush draw, right?
Solomon does the "C-bet" on the river and takes the pot.
 
suby_rafael

suby_rafael

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Solomon did play that well didn't he, made full use of his position and fired two streets after he saw weakness from vogelsang. Put vogelsang in a tough spot - there was no way he was calling on the river.

Vogelsang had two chances to take the pot down if he had :-

1. C-bet the flop.
2. Put out a delayed C-bet on the turn.

He was gun shy since he was out of position but full credit to solomon for taking the initiative from the turn.
 
dealio96

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I think this would've been a perfect spot for a check-raise OTT by vogelsang. It would've looked like a line that QQQ would take. Of course he should've Cbet the flop, but since he didn't, I think he definitely should've tried something here ott(besides check calling). Horribly played if you ask me.
 
n3rv

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The thing you gotta remember about Vogelsang is that he has a degree in risk management and finance, whereas Solomon is very much more of a gambler playing with heart and intuition - which is great entertainment at such high stakes.

I don't think Vogelsang puts much fold equity on Solomon at all. In Vogelsang's mind only better hands are calling any c-bet he makes post-flop (e.g. Soloman could easily have a Q or a high pocket pair in his range, especially since Vogelsang holds the AK) and so only worse and dominated hands are actually folding here if Vogelsang c-bets (like this KT for instance, there isn't much point in Vogelsang trying to push Solomon off that kind of hand in theory while he is still ahead).

The other thing about it is, Solomon is trying to win with KT from the cut-off against a tight pro in the small blind, after he was 3-bet pre-flop, which is honestly quite a questionable play and probably not something Vogelsang would attempt if the roles were reversed. Vogelsang may not have even put KT or a ballsy bluff in Solomon's range of plays at the moment. The fact Solomon doesn't c-bet the flop after he is checked to indicates how non-profitable this play would be long-term for him here. Solomon basically doesn't have much of a plan on the earlier streets unless he gets lucky.

So yes, I agree Vogelsang's indecision post-flop let Soloman win the hand in the end - Vogelsang probably even knew Soloman was likely bluffing on the river and would've called a smaller bet - but the risk of Soloman actually having a Queen or even hitting something stupid like a smaller pair or holding a pocket pair - even potentially hitting a set - it just wasn't worth him finding out at this stage of the tourney.

Honestly I don't think either player covered themselves in glory here - but I understand both of their decisions even if neither of them were optimal in the end (it's a lot easier with the cards showing, isn't it?). If I had to pick, overall I think Vogelsang may have played it more optimally until the river. But I enjoyed watching Solomon through-out this whole tournament - he had a lot of heart, and the heart on the river won him this hand.
 
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RickAversion

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What about Solomon's smaller turn bet of 44% ?
Ok sizing?

Why was this a no brainer call by V? Announcer said 0% chance of fold.
15 outs, with A draw, Q draw, and flush draw? One more card = 30% pot equity.

Pot odds? Call 1.5m to win 5m = 30%
Ok, so break even, and then add in implied odds for stacking all in, if he hits?
 
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RickAversion

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Bad pre-flop 3-bet call by Solomon with only KT, right?
 
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When Solomon also checked the flop, I'd read that as Solomon not having Q.
V should have then C-bet on the turn, right?
 
n3rv

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What about Solomon's smaller turn bet of 44% ?
Ok sizing?

Why was this a no brainer call by V? Announcer said 0% chance of fold.
15 outs, with A draw, Q draw, and flush draw? One more card = 30% pot equity.

Pot odds? Call 1.5m to win 5m = 30%
Ok, so break even, and then add in implied odds for stacking all in, if he hits?

You have to take into account the levels of money they are playing for here, but generally speaking betting below half the the pot indicates some kind of weakness, although Solomon probably thinks it is smart to bet small to make it look like he is inducing a call as if he has something, which could also be part of the reason why Vogelsang doesn't want to come over the top out of position.

That said, a turn bet is far more likely to be a semi-bluff by Solomon after he is checked to, and so it was a no brainer call because V knows he could easily still be ahead and dominating, not to mention his overcards and flush draw and implied odds etc. - he also may have called a small c-bet on the flop if Solomon had made one because of the pre-flop play indicating V was still ahead at this point most of the time.

Bad pre-flop 3-bet call by Solomon with only KT, right?

I'm hesitant to just automatically label it bad as it did win in end... also I have never played these stakes, I don't know the exact dynamic of the table and I've definitely made worse plays, but yeah - in my opinion he is losing that pot against most other pros and most other boards or positions against Vogelsang. It isn't a profitable thing to do long term - he showed the bluff afterwards as well which, for a player like Vogelsang will just make him more aware of Solomon's range as opposed to making him be tilted by making a 50/50 fold on the river. I think you can see by Vogelsang's reaction that he is about to be disappointed but then kind of wonders more about why on earth Solomon would think making that play would be profitable most of the time.

However, Solomon did go on to river bluff a few more other players before he went out in a decent place so obviously he may have been intentionally playing more of a LAG style to take advantage of the nittiness at the table, which would highlight better observation and intuition about the situation than V may have given him credit for at this stage.

When Solomon also checked the flop, I'd read that as Solomon not having Q.
V should have then C-bet on the turn, right?

Probably, but like I said before I don't think V places any fold equity on Solomon at all and V's nittier style was working good so far - V probably doesn't put Solomon on complete random river bluffs yet so he doesn't anticipate the hand getting away from him if he is still in the lead. He probably thinks Solomon is only going to fold a weaker and dominated hand here, and that Solomon is still only calling any value bet with a better hand so there is not as much value in V c-betting.

Honestly, when you really think about it, Vogelsang's main mistake in this hand was just not anticipating Solomon bluffing so big on the river. If he had called the bluff on the river he would have gotten maximum value out of Solomon here, because honestly Solomon is probably folding any c-bets Vogelsang makes and there is no value in Vogelsang making them other than to prevent Solomon catching-up or ridiculously bluffing. In Vogelsang's mind he had showdown value with AKs so to semi-bluff Solomon out of that showdown value just to prevent Solomon from bluffing him or unlikely catching up wasn't strictly speaking the most valuable play in theory at the time.

Nevertheless, it is easy for us to see now what the better plays should have been for both players.
 
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