WSOP 2015 Report
Well I just got back from Vegas – over 2 weeks of pretty much constant poker. Though I didn’t win a bracelet, my buddy, and member of the Colorado Crew, Adrian Buckley, did - I think I was drunk for a solid 4 days celebrating his win, by the way – I can’t imagine what I’d do if I ever win one; it’s possible that I may not live.
I’m still rooting him on, as he bought into ME flight 1A with his winnings – maybe there’s a second final table in order.
As for me, I did manage to keep my head above water. In the end, I’m basically just down my travel costs – so not as successful as I would like, but I’ll take it. Plus, I feel that played very well (as always I had my mistakes), but if I would have faded a couple river aces, things would have turned out much better.
So, I took a few notes while playing. Frankly, I didn’t note as much as I would have liked, or do usually, but I was playing 16 hours a day on average – and just stopped writing stuff down after a while. Anyway, I like to write this stuff out and analyze it post-mortem – feel free to comment or provide insight and anything.
Event #28 - $1500 Monster Stack ($15k Starting Stack)
Level 2 - Blinds $50/$100
A middle position LAG (loose aggressive) player open raised to $250 and I called from the button with
– the big blind called as well. The middle position player was very active and had already 3-bet, both pre and post flop, multiple times, I called with 78 hoping to catch a good , yet safe looking flop, and let him barrel off.
Pot - $900
Umm, we’ll call that a good flop! The big blind checked and the middle position player bet $500. I elected to flat in that spot – if he could see my hand, he probably wouldn’t bet, so I want to take advantage of that mistake. Plus the pot is not all that big, I’d like it to get bigger. The big blind folded and we were heads up.
Pot - $1900
The middle position player checked to me – I was nearly positive that he did so with the intent of check raising; it was actually pretty obvious. So, I decided to give him the opportunity, even though I just made the nuts - which would typically warrant a check. I bet $1300 and my opponent check-raised to $3300 as expected.
Pot - $6500
Now, I was presented with a choice. There is already quite a large pot out there for the $50/$100 level, and I had the nuts with blockers and improvement opportunities, not to mention 1 out for the stone cold nuts – basically the best situation one could hope for. I didn’t think my opponent could have a set, if I thought that, I would have flat called - I felt he would not have check raised the flop with a flush draw either– but he’s been so aggressive, he may read a 4-bet as weakness and put his stack in. So, I 4-bet to $6.5K and he folded after tanking for a solid minute.
In hindsight, I’m not sure why I thought a 4-bet was a good idea - I wish I would have flat called the turn 3-bet and let him barrel the river. At the time, I raised to get more money in the pot with the nuts and to hopefully get this players entire stack; oh well, it was still a nice pot. Still my thinking, would have been much better against a tight player – with the LAG, I should have simply flatted and let him barrel the river.
Level 2 - Blinds $50/$100
From the big blind I defended against an early position raise and 3 callers with
. Obviously not a great hand against my opponents’ ranges, but a defendable hand from the big blind with a 200BB stack.
Flop- k 8 8
I check/called all the way down and made a min-3bet on the river – my early position opponent sniffed it out and folded; I’m pretty sure he folded AA, or maybe AK. My stack was then at about $24K.
Level 5 - $25/$100/$200 (My Stack - $22K)
My table broke and I got moved to a new table. I ended up at the table next to a guy that had just made two straight flushes in the previous 10 hands; apparently, it was all over Twitter. The chip counter came over and wanted to interview the player; he was a German player and a huge scene ensued when he refused to give his name and didn’t want to be interviewed. Finally, the WSOP staff just let it go, but not before a supervisor of some sort explained to this player that he was just being nice because he had signed a release when he bought in.
Anyway, it turned out to be pretty funny. I saw the second straight flush hit as I was sitting down and it was a 1-outer on the river against an obvious nut flush – so I immediately noted that this player was not shy about getting a good portion of chips in the pot in transparent situations with few outs. He had over $120K when I sat down with my $22K stack – the best part though is that after I was busted, I saw him at the rebuy cage the next morning. HAHA – two straight flushes and an 8x starting stack and he couldn’t make Day 2 – turns out, there is a God after all!
Level 5 - $25/$100/$200 (My Stack - $22K)
While I was on the button, a middle position player with a $2600 (13BB) total stack open raised to $500. Before I even looked at my hand I was thinking call-to-crack. I was pretty certain I was up against a solid range, but on the button with 10x his stack, I thought I’d call and take a flop – hoping to crack him. Found
and flat called as planned. The big blind then called as well with about $25K behind.
Pot - $1850
The big blind checked and the middle position player shipped his remaining $2100. Well shit, I was then certain I was beat despite getting a pretty good flop for my hand. Since I was certain I was beat, I should fold right? I agree, but talked myself into calling with the thought, “If I’m not playing this flop why did I call pre-flop?” I called the $2100 – then the big blind called as well – ok, it was near this time that I realized I was in even more trouble.
Pot – $8150
That’s not a good card for me, shit. My big blind opponent stared at the pot and continued to stare and stare some more, to the point where the dealer asked, “You know it’s on you; right?” in the standard Moneymaker moment. She completely ignored the dealer and we sat there some more. I finally said “You know it’s on you; right?” She looked right at me, then all of a sudden bet $1500.
Beyond a shadow of a doubt I knew she had a heart, and it was almost certainly the
. However, I immediately started doing the math. She bet $1500 into a pot of $8150, which, of course gives me some pretty good pot odds
, about 13%-14%. I only have 4 outs x 1, which isn’t good enough, but is surprisingly close. From an implied odds perspective, I know I need to get about 9x her turn bet ($13.5K) in the pot to make this profitable should one of my 4 outs hit – which is doable if she has almost any heart, but especially the
, as there is already ~$9600 in the pot – really she only has to give me another $4K on the river. But, with the situation, I decided to cut my losses and fold – I shouldn’t have even been in this pot and I got in way deeper that I wanted to anyway – so I made what I believed to be the correct play, after making a two mistakes, and folded.
Pot - $8150
Ok, not to be results-orientated, but, ouch! I don’t know, maybe I don’t get paid enough anyway – though I think runner, runner boat is going to get paid by the nut flush.
Level 10 - $100/$400/$800 (My Stack - $18K)
From the Hi-Jack seat it was folded to me and I open raised
to $1800. An older man on the button flat called me with about $40K behind and both blinds folded; we were heads up. The player on the button had been playing very aggressive, but was not giving much thought to anything but his own hand and position. It was clear that he was a level 1 thinker, at best, and was simply relying on aggression to close the gap.
Pot - $5800
I made a continuation bet of $2K, and the button 3-bet to $6K (another sign of a weak player as his bet sizing was always 3x).
I wanted to ship it but let logic take over. This player is just the type to have flat called with JJ or 10 10 and he certainly could have 88 or 99, but he could have 66 too. In the end, I figured at best, I was up against two overs or maybe even something like Ad Jd and reluctantly folded not wanting to risk my tournament against his pretty strong range. Analyzing this situation with Equilab at home, gives me 58%/42% against what I believe his range was (22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,A5o-A2o) – maybe I should have shipped it, at the table, this is about what I thought my edge was and thought it was too small to stake much on – or, was this a nitty fold?
I suppose I could have flat called out of position as well, but I really don’t like that line; in fact I hate that line, there is no good turn card that can come short of a 7, but, food for thought I guess.
Level 10 - $100/$400/$800 (My Stack - $14K)
From the Hi-Jack seat on the very next lap around the table it was folded to me again and I open raised to $1800 with
. This time, my familiar foe on the button 3-bet me pre-flop to $6K – and the only reason it wasn’t $5400 was because he couldn’t do the 3 x $1800 math – LOL.
Anyway, I took my time and 4-bet all-in after both blinds folded. He tanked for two solid minutes as I calmly stared at the table; but I was thinking “call, call, call, call…please call”. Anyway, he finally called and showed
Pot - $30,200
River - I don’t remember
That was it – my Monster Stack was over after losing nearly a 70/30. Oh well, I don’t think I could get it in much better than that.
$235 3pm Daily non-bracelet event at the Rio
I played in several of these, but experienced very standard situations. These are tough, with 1K+ field sizes, but with ~$40K up top, I was interested. I cashed in two (2/10 overall), one for $3600 and another for $850, so I had decent results (+$2100) in these events despite the enormous and pretty weak/soft fields.
I really only have 1 hand to discuss.
With a 15BB stack from the button, I open raised (2.25x) with
after it was folded to me. The small blind folded but the big blind called with 13BB’s and we went to flop heads up.
Pot – 5BB’s
I watched my opponent double check his cards, and it was clear he was not acting – then lead out for 1BB, actually about 25% pot.
I knew the double check meant one of two things:
1. He paired a King and couldn’t remember what the other card was (“Maybe I made Kings up!”)
2. Or he was looking to see the size of the one club in his hand
Anything else and he wouldn’t have needed to check. I figured at the table that I was way ahead of a club draw with a made hand and a blocker, (and I really thought that was the largest probability, especially with the blocking bet he made on the flop), and I had 11 outs (9 clubs and 2 sevens) against the rest of his range. The only hand that would really suck for me would be Kjc of something like that.
Anyway, I decided that I was profitable against his range, and when coupled with fold equity, felt I had to take this spot and 3-bet shipped my remaining 12BB’s. My opponent snap called and rolled K2o.
Pot - $27BB’s
It was pretty funny as he started cussing me for hitting a two-outer – to which I was thinking, “Well, I actually had 5 times that many outs”. Then he went over to his crew on the rail and started pointing me (the idiot) out to his buddies.
OK, so I thought this was really +EV, but maybe not, maybe I am an idiot. Plugging his range in Equilab:
(AKs,A6s,A2s,K6s,K2s,62s,AcQc,KcQc,AcJc,KcJc,QcJc, AcTc,KcTc,QcTc,JcTc,Ac9c,Kc9c,Qc9c,Jc9c,Ac8c,Kc8c, Qc8c,Jc8c,Ac7c,Kc7c,Qc7c,Jc7c,Qc6c,Jc6c,Ac5c,Kc5c, Qc5c,Jc5c,Ac4c,Kc4c,Qc4c,Jc4c,Ac3c,Kc3c,Qc3c,Jc3c, Qc2c,Jc2c,K6o,K2o,62o)
Yields only 32% equity for my hand. It’s hard to say how much fold equity I have in this spot, but I’d have to say I have quite a bit against the majority of his range, or at least half of it – can I call this +EV, say 52% equity? I thought I was much better than this with actual equity – but I guess not.