I believe this is the problem. If it's possible mathematically, then it might happen, then it will happen like one of the Murphys law says. "The long run" is designed to fix this problem, however it does not. Go to iPoker network and try to win a preflop coinflip with pocket Aces... please don't bet too much and don't blame me for telling you to do that. Just try to win a flip there with AA, play some thousands of hands, get stats for 100 preflop aces and see how much it costs to wait for the best preflop hand
Answering your question NBB,
If you don't have the software that
tells you the exact numbers then you're most likely mistaken.
Our psychology is designed in such way, that when we win flips with KK and AA - we're taking it as normal occasion. It's ok! I was best preflop and i won on showdown. You're forgetting about it in few minutes\hours or days, depending on the value of the pot.
From the other side, when your AA is beat - you'll keep it in mind for a long time. You've expected alot from this hand before the cards start to cover the deck, and when your expectations are ruined - you'll keep it in mind for a long long time.
You've mantioned in my post that
online poker is a parody of real life poker, i can not disagree with that. Most of "the reads", "bluffs" and so on are just in our head when we play online. Those TV shows where so called "stars" are playing, simply designed to attract people to poker and teach them how to play. In place of those "stars" it would be a real mistake and stupidity to show their gamestyle to the world. Actually they're paid to play on TV and it's just a TVshow, they're playing it like a freeroll.
I can not be ungrateful to online poker, cause i've had a nice experience and won enough during online
gambling, but what i know for sure, cause my software says so - in the long run, the best preflop hand is not the best hand at all. The best thing to do in online poker is to not fall for speculations like calling a allin when you have AA. Let's say you don't know your
odds, you don't even know your cards, like you don't know your opponents cards, this is where the math actually starts, so with one opponent you have 49.5% chances towin the pot and 1% chance for split. Next step in math includes your cards, ok you know that you have AA... But dominating mathematical system tells you that your chance is 49% for a coin flip... it's close to betting black or red on a
roulette. So winning a tourney by just going all in preflop all the time when you have a strong hand is actually not different than winning X times in a row on a roulette.
Study opponents at the table, learn and feel them. See the flop, turn, river for value and with confedence. Check your chances to beat the best possible hand. What's the value? Who is your opponent? Is he tight, loose? If he's tight, where his tighness is coming from? Preflop? Postflop? He might be playing 38os preflop, but always showes a full house 33388 at the end, or folds before the turn. That's where the profit comes from in poker.
But when i see someone who constantly wins all of the flips for 3-4 hours with trash hands against monsters, and earns impressive bounties for that - i feel like something wrong and roulette might have magnets wiithin the field and in the ball. Plus strange behavior of poker site staff - that's why i've started my post with questions i'm asking there.
