Why do people fear bubble play?

PoKeRFoRNiA

PoKeRFoRNiA

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Scared money = dead money, or not necessarily?

Because one of my friends who was playing live mtt, had A6o from the big blind with 10bb left at the final table, down to 6 players in 30-man mtt and 5 players get paid. Small blind with 16bb decided to shove against him. My friend instant called and rolls over A6o and says "i know u don't have anything". The guy rolls over 59o. Btw, there were 2 short-stacks at cutoff and button who only had 4bb and 6bb. The guy with 59o is amazed at my friend's call and asks "how can u call with A6o?" My friend then responds "haha, how can you shove with 59o?" The guy obviously says "well, I was hoping you fold." then my friend responds "and you expect me to fold when I have a better hand? A6o > 59o. I knew u didn't have anything and I was correct. I made the right call."

My friend won the hand bcz no 5 and 9 came up. The guy who lost his stack was frustrated and angry at my friend's call. My friend then says "it's a $13($10 + $3) tourney with one rebuy................. But even if this was wsop main event, my decision doesn't change against you. If I was scared of bubbling, I wouldn't play in the first place. And I heard bubble gets their buyin back"(this is another question. is this true? He tells me bubble of main event gets 10k back and ppl who itm gets 20k, hence more reason to not fear bubble bcz worst that happens is getting ur buyin back)

Funny thing is, next rotation, where my friend is the big blind, everyone folded and action was to small blind again. My friend simply matched his stack of 4.5bb or so and put it in his hand and asks him "u gonna shove?" while holding 2To, implying that he's gonna call. The small blind pussies out and decides to fold. My friend rolls over and shows it but then tells him "either way, I was gonna call because it's a DOYLE BRUNSON'S HAND!!!!!" few hands later, the guy who shoved with 59o bubbled out bcz he had 44 and other player had QQ.

My friend got 2nd place. As we walked out of the home game tourney, he was laughing and telling me how it's pathetic people fear bubble play. He tells me as long as you're keeping within your bankroll management and you can be in that position hundreds of times since this social $13 mtt is held once a week, and roughly 50 times a year, there's nothing wrong with the call. He tells me scared money = dead money. Tells me bubble play puts people to the test and people who play scared are dead money. He then told me to ask online what you guys think of this since you can fire up hundreds of sngs at once. Although I disagree and would've folded because with A6o, you would still bust out 30-50% of the time and your M zone is more than double of small stacks, it's an interesting situation. I mostly played and dominated 9-player sngs from 30 cent dailydollar satellites to $5 double deuce satellite games. I played microstake satellite sngs on full tilt, 16-tabling but even I would've folded in that spot. But this is due to my different payout structure where top 3 gets paid the same whereas he was playing typical sng where payout is inflated towards 1st place. I used to play before Black Friday occurred.

It reminded me of a thread long time ago. I even called with pocket Jacks and cc thought even this call was horrible.
https://www.cardschat.com/forum/tournament-poker-59/keeping-short-stack-alive-bully-middle-175147/

What do you guys think of this hand? Was it a good call or bad call?
 
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Jacki Burkhart

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Scared money = dead money, or not necessarily? yes, scared money equals dead money. on the bubble you need to be cautious yet fearless...seem like a contradiction? for example, limping might seem cautious but it is NOT fearless.

Because one of my friends who was playing live mtt, had A6o from the big blind with 10bb left at the final table, down to 6 players in 30-man mtt and 5 players get paid. Small blind with 16bb decided to shove against him. My friend instant called and rolls over A6o and says "i know u don't have anything". The guy rolls over 59o. Btw, there were 2 short-stacks at cutoff and button who only had 4bb and 6bb. The guy with 59o is amazed at my friend's call and asks "how can u call with A6o?" My friend then responds "haha, how can you shove with 59o?" The guy obviously says "well, I was hoping you fold." then my friend responds "and you expect me to fold when I have a better hand? A6o > 59o. I knew u didn't have anything and I was correct. I made the right call." The small blind who shoved with 59 off made a correct shove, he was just unfortunate that the BB had a hand. Now....that said A6 off is not much of a hand. your friend, the BB may have been a little hasty and overconfident in his call but it is probably a marginally correct call. It would depend on the player read and table dynamics. If that SB player had been shoving a lot I would snap call, if that SB player had been tight I would probably fold it.

My friend won the hand bcz no 5 and 9 came up. The guy who lost his stack was frustrated and angry at my friend's call. My friend then says "it's a $13($10 + $3) tourney with one rebuy................. But even if this was WSOP main event, my decision doesn't change against you. in a vacuum, a correct decision remains correct regardless of the stakes. now if 20k is lifechanging money for you it might change your decision, but then you are probably playing scared and outside of your comfort zone to begin withIf I was scared of bubbling, I wouldn't play in the first place. good philosophy And I heard bubble gets their buyin back"(this is another question. is this true? He tells me bubble of main event gets 10k back and ppl who itm gets 20k, hence more reason to not fear bubble bcz worst that happens is getting ur buyin back) In the main event it is true that the actual bubble person gets a free entry into next year's main event, but no they do not actually get their money back. everybody else who survives past the bubble boy gets at least $20,000

Funny thing is, next rotation, where my friend is the big blind, everyone folded and action was to small blind again. My friend simply matched his stack of 4.5bb or so and put it in his hand and asks him "u gonna shove?" while holding 2To, implying that he's gonna call. The small blind pussies out and decides to fold. My friend rolls over and shows it but then tells him "either way, I was gonna call because it's a DOYLE BRUNSON'S HAND!!!!!" this would be a big mistake. T2 is a bad hand regardless of who likes it. calling and shoving are VERY different, but especially in bubble play few hands later, the guy who shoved with 59o bubbled out bcz he had 44 and other player had QQ.

My friend got 2nd place. As we walked out of the home game tourney, he was laughing and telling me how it's pathetic people fear bubble play. He tells me as long as you're keeping within your bankroll management and you can be in that position hundreds of times since this social $13 mtt is held once a week, and roughly 50 times a year, there's nothing wrong with the call. He tells me scared money = dead money. Tells me bubble play puts people to the test and people who play scared are dead money. He then told me to ask online what you guys think of this since you can fire up hundreds of sngs at once. Although I disagree and would've folded because with A6o, you would still bust out 30-50% of the time and your M zone is more than double of small stacks, it's an interesting situation. you have a good point here, that is why shoving on the bubble is so profitable, because it is hard for people to call. usually with a hand like A6 you are only gonna be 60-40 to win, quite a gamble. hence, the power of the shove. That is why the SB was correct to shove the 95, he is banking on the fact that your friend is good enough to fold a lot of marginal hands. I mostly played and dominated 9-player sngs from 30 cent dailydollar satellites to $5 double deuce satellite games. I played microstake satellite sngs on full tilt, 16-tabling but even I would've folded in that spot. But this is due to my different payout structure where top 3 gets paid the same whereas he was playing typical sng where payout is inflated towards 1st place. I used to play before Black Friday occurred.

It reminded me of a thread long time ago. I even called with pocket Jacks and cc thought even this call was horrible.
https://www.cardschat.com/forum/tournament-poker-59/keeping-short-stack-alive-bully-middle-175147/

What do you guys think of this hand? Was it a good call or bad call?

my comments above in read. at best, it is a marginal call.
your friend has the "fearless" part down.
he needs a little help understanding the power of shoving a wide range and the error in calling a wide range.
 
ChipEaterMan

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The one who shoved with 95o is an asshole, i think Ace rag was an easy instant call decision considering the tourney was 6 handed and at that bubble stage
 
Jacki Burkhart

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because the player with 95 off is a big stack he is leveraging the power of the big stack with the threat of the small stacks busting soon very nicely in a bubble play situation.

Had one of the shorter stacks been in the BB then shoving 95 would be more risky to him since the shorter stacks are more desperate and the BB represents a large portion of their stack.

The Big stack is correct in picking on medium stacks while the short stacks are still in, it is how you accumulate chips on the bubble to go on and win 1st place.

bubble play is all about shove ranges and first in vigorish. shove wide, call narrow.

let's assume the SB is shoving the top 80% of hands (he was probably shoving a little wider as it turned out). How does A6 off match up against a top 80% range? well, you might think it does pretty well but actually it is only 53% to win. How would you feel if you have the 2nd biggest stack and there are 2 short stacks who can bust any time, how do you feel about taking a coing flip and CALLING off your stack for your tourney life? To ship it is totally different, he can SHIP that A6 all day. But if you're familiar with the "gap concept" it takes a stronger hand to call a raise than to make a raise and it takes an even stronger hand to call a push for your tourney life than to push on a stack that you cover.

now lets say the SB is shoving 100% of hands. how does A6off match up? still only 55% to win. Your friend was pushing a very thin edge and putting everything at stake to do it. Without a read or good reason to be sure he has a bottom 30% hand, I'm probably folding my A6 here.
 
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rifflemao

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Even if it's a fold according to game theory, I respect him for going with a read. I'll bet winning that hand did a lot for his image too.

I agree with scared money = dead money, and I abuse the bubble and punish limpers whenever possible in the live league I play in, and online. You don't win friends that way, but you get results and respect.

I used to think players who were ultra-aggressive near the bubble were bullies and jerks, but now it just seems like standard winning play and nothing personal.
 
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Let me tell you that your friend is correct. Even if you call to a better hand, you will get much bigger prices if you do better, than if you just het itm every time. It is much much better to make a good cash every once in a while rather than getting lots of time itm.
 
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people nt want to bust so close to cashing...me personally try to make correct decision even if that's playing pots during bubble
 
PoKeRFoRNiA

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Even if it's a fold according to game theory, I respect him for going with a read. I'll bet winning that hand did a lot for his image too.

I agree with scared money = dead money, and I abuse the bubble and punish limpers whenever possible in the live league I play in, and online. You don't win friends that way, but you get results and respect.

I used to think players who were ultra-aggressive near the bubble were bullies and jerks, but now it just seems like standard winning play and nothing personal.

I believe it did because after that hand and having lots of chips, people were starting to fold to his blinds because they see him as aggressive calling station who calls down with anything. The hand where he rolled over T2o and said "i would've called either way because it's a doyle brunson's hand!!!!!!!" I asked him about that hand today and he told me "I only did that because I got emotional and angry that he tried to bully me with 59o, so I was willing to knock him out with T2o and just say I called because it was doyle brunson's hand. I pretended I was ready to call so that he gets an idea that there will be no fold equity against me anymore from him, which then is only a matter of showdown. I wanted to knock him out so bad. But he folded."
 
PoKeRFoRNiA

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my comments above in read. at best, it is a marginal call.
your friend has the "fearless" part down.
he needs a little help understanding the power of shoving a wide range and the error in calling a wide range.

The hand with T2o, I do agree with you. It's a bad hand. My friend also admits that it was a bad hand. He was playing mind games with his opponent. My friend felt that he was very offended with that 59o shove that he wanted to give the guy a horrible beat with T2o and at the same time, he's only risking 1/5 of his stack. But of course, best thing to do is hope his opponent folds. So he told me that he was playing mind tricks of his own by putting 4 blinds into his hand and pretending he's ready to call the all-in because he wanted to act strong and give false tells that his opponent is hopeless if he's considering fold equity. He told me he was tell-bluffing to act like there's no fold equity against him. But as he rolled it over, he just said he would've called because it's a doyle brunson's hand only to act like a calling station and that T2 is better than 59. This way, people will think he's capable of calling all-ins with T2o, so no point of bluffing and they better have a hand if they bet into him. I've learned about giving false tells yesterday. Some dynamics of the game I learned while observing the table. Funny game.
 
joshuawacaster

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These responses and posts are like books. Wish people kept it shorter.
 
newbie in training

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But they comments are knoledge filled why woulf u want less knoledge in a game that reqhires a lot of knoledgw?! ...,

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Arjonius

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Quite a few players have some fear of the bubble, even some who believe they don't. As a result, they tighten up to some degree, which means they play somewhat sub-optimally.

As the OP's friend said, whether you're going to be in similar positions repeatedly is a factor. Am I more likely to tighten up in at the bubble in a $2 game or in the WSOP ME? Considering how unlikely it is that I'll be in the latter situation multiple times, I'm far more likely to tighten up, and to tighten up more.

I remember reading about a player who said he folded AA twice at the bubble in a WPT, and only played it when it was dealt to him a third time. Not good poker, obviously, but can I actually blame him for playing even that nitty?
 
U

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People fear the bubble because NOBODY want's to get out on the bubble. Nobody wants to be that guy that doesn't make the money by just a few places. Better to get out earlier or not get out at all.
 
newbie in training

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Lol what about the big cashes XD

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Vhyre

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I'm over bubble-noia. I look forward to it because it means I can exploit those who do fear it. Usually by the time it rolls around the blinds and antes are substantial, and steals become a major source of chips towards the final table. I no longer plat simply to cash, I want at least one of the top 3 positions. If I bust out at any stage, thats just poker. As long as I know Im playing as well as I can, I can accept the element of chance.
 
Poker Orifice

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The one who shoved with 95o is an asshole, i think Ace rag was an easy instant call decision considering the tourney was 6 handed and at that bubble stage
what?
With two other players on extremely shortstacks, SB should be shoving atc especially if BB has any clue re: ICM
 
Jacki Burkhart

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what?
With two other players on extremely shortstacks, SB should be shoving atc especially if BB has any clue re: ICM

100% agree....I'd say 110% agree except...well....ya know...
 
Dee Dee

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Six handed with very short stacks A6o is a ****ing gem in blind vs blind play, also you're mate will have reads which tell him this is an easy call in this particular situation. 10 2, does not really matter what the cards are if it is a game of chicken but I see many donks playing this hand as if it has mystical properties because Doyle likes it but that is beside the point, which is, if you can beat up on an opponent with any hand then that is fine as long as you are confident you are making the right play.
 
PoKeRFoRNiA

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Six handed with very short stacks A6o is a ****ing gem in blind vs blind play, also you're mate will have reads which tell him this is an easy call in this particular situation. 10 2, does not really matter what the cards are if it is a game of chicken but I see many donks playing this hand as if it has mystical properties because Doyle likes it but that is beside the point, which is, if you can beat up on an opponent with any hand then that is fine as long as you are confident you are making the right play.

My friend told me yesterday that he knows it's a bad hand. He just said to the table that he would've called with T2 and reasoning it with Doyle Brunson only to make the table view him as a calling station donkey who they won't have any fold equity against. He told me that he wanted people to think "wow, this guy would've called with T2o just because it's doyle's hand? omg. what a fish" but at the same time, they will be scared to shove against him without a hand since they will assume they have no fold equity against him anymore. This is what he told me. He pretended like he was going to call sb's all-in just to make himself appear strong by putting equal amount of his chips into his hand and acting like he's ready to call and is willing to bubble sb out. Sb decided to fold bcz sb thought my friend would instant call again. Sb had no guts to pull that shove anymore.

Live play is funny. I just learned this kind of play. He taught me and told me it's called false tell or tell-bluff. By hinting or implying that he's gonna call, it reduces their fold equity against him and they will think twice before shoving or bluffing into my friend. You don't do any of this online because there's no physical tell but in live games, you can pull this off. And as always, I learned from cc, "you can't bluff calling station. you can't bluff if they don't fold." I was learning metagame from him that night. Live play is fun.
 
Jacki Burkhart

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A6o is a snap here: http://www.holdemresources.net/h/poker-theory/hune.html

This ignores icm so prob should be a bit tighter but if antes that widens it as well. J8s and K5o are both calls at 10bb. A6o is a ****ing premium 10bb deep bvb.

this ignores the bubble too. so when you consider the bubble and ICM, I'd go back to my original statement of "A6 is probably marginally correct if you have a read"

I mean, he's only 55% to win vs a range of any 2 cards....and he is CALLING....let's not forget he is the caller.... He can push with it no worries. CALLING a bet all in for your tourney life takes a lot of balls. I do respect his ability to pull the trigger on this. I don't know if I could have....

I recently had what I thought was a gut wrenching call in a very very similar situation and I finally called with ATo and my opponent had A7o. If I would have held A6o I would have been very very very sorry.... Even so I was only 70% to win and that was pretty much my best case scenario...
 
newbie in training

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Just go play a don lol

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hackmeplz

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this ignores the bubble too. so when you consider the bubble and ICM, I'd go back to my original statement of "A6 is probably marginally correct if you have a read"
icm is the fact that it is not winner take all, so icm takes into account the bubble. Plus I'm assuming there were antes by then so it's effectively closer to 7bb.

I mean, he's only 55% to win vs a range of any 2 cards....and he is CALLING....let's not forget he is the caller.... He can push with it no worries. CALLING a bet all in for your tourney life takes a lot of balls. I do respect his ability to pull the trigger on this. I don't know if I could have....

It's actually 60% not 55, and it doesn't take balls at all, it takes brains. You need to realize that if you're going to make money long-term from tournaments you don't make your money from bubbling. Sure it sucks to bubble, but there's no one who makes money long-term from tourneys who doesn't at least have a few wins (or with gigantic fields FTs). Now sure we don't win tournaments by flipping in bad spots, but the bottom line is if you've got a 55-60% equity advantage you're going to be costing yourself money by not taking it. Also a lot of people will minr hands like QQ+/AK in the hopes of getting reshoved on light and be shoving hands they want to maximize fold equity with so that's another reason to call. Plus we let the table know they can't push us around and maybe next time he'll have a hand like T9o and fold because he thinks we'll call and we're the ones with 95o.

I recently had what I thought was a gut wrenching call in a very very similar situation and I finally called with ATo and my opponent had A7o. If I would have held A6o I would have been very very very sorry.... Even so I was only 70% to win and that was pretty much my best case scenario...

You're being results oriented. If you play for fun and want to sweat each individual prize jump sure go ahead, but just know if your goal is to make long-term money from poker tournaments you have to play in a way that allows you to win. Waiting for premiums is typically not a good way to win poker tournaments.
 
Jacki Burkhart

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It's actually 60% not 55, and it doesn't take balls at all, it takes brains.


sorry, OK technically it is 56.0% to win and 3.6% to tie

still to me, it's a marginal call not a snap call. You have to be putting him on a 100% shove range first.

but it's ok. We're allowed to have different opinions...that is what makes this fun! I don't have any balls anyways...but I've got brains so I think we'll both be OK. some of us have balls, some of us have brains and some players have both! ;)
 
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