When Normal Play is Conflicted by Table Image?

So I had a spot come up today, where I switched tables right before the button on the bubble. Right away, I get dealt AQo and steal. The very next hand, I get AKo and steal again. Now because I stole twice, I'm sure people are going to be willing play back lighter. The next hand I get A10s which is obviously a good stealing hand from middle position, but I just stole twice in a row. Would it make more sense to make an atypical play and just fold so people don't play back too light here? People haven't been to keen to adjust, but it seemed fishy (and it would to me if I were in the shoes of one of my opponents) that a new player randomly comes to the table on the bubble and steals 3 times in a row. I don't really want action, but I have decent equity if I do get action that isn't from a bigger ace.
What ended up happening was someone I thought was a complete nit, with 77 must have decided I was full of it and re-jammed and I was priced in to call and I actually won the flip, but it still makes me wonder if I did the right thing.

Notes:
-The little knowledge I had on my table was on good tight aggressive players, but they weren't behind me anyways.
-Me and the players behind me all had around 10-15 bbs, I'm on the shorter side of that with 12 bbs going into the last steal.
-The 3rd steal would be a 15-16% chip up.

The question I have is that should I have not gone for a GOOD chip up situation because of my table image in this spot?

Why don't you just open shove AK and AQ with such a small stack? You're chipping up 2.5 BB everytime you pick up blinds and antes. Are you afraid of being called and bubbling but still want to steal?
With your stack size, I'm shoving/reshoving over anyone with all 3 hands no matter what order they came. Maybe just maybe fold ATs from MP last hand if someone opened from EP. Still probably shoving personally because I just take alot of chances when I'm short-mediumish stack and if I lose too bad for me.
Also how do you think someone is a complete nit after playing for 3 hands? Previous history I suppose?

Short version: yes.

I would probably open shuv with the AK and with the AQ I don't see why you didn't with the stack size situation? throw the table image out the door and just get your money in on the two previous spots. I also don't understand how you gathered anything from the nit anyways. I dunno for the A10vs77 I think that was pretty basic anyways. I would have just shuved again probably, the table probably was tight especially at the bubble

I should have open shoved the AK and AQ but I couldn't just randomly open shove the 3rd time after not doing it the first two times. That was an error on my part, but it kind of neglects to answer my question.

With a shorter stack like that, your image as an aggressive or loose player would help you. Let's say you shoved the first two hands and stole. With A10, you should shove a third time in a row because you WANT a call with hands like QJ or weaker.

If stacks were deeper, you could probably proceed as normal preflop, but you'd have to take the past few hands into account and know that some players may be holding a wider range.

Yea I forgot to say that in this case your image is actually helping you. You will be shoving and you don't mind being called by worse like KQ or A9 who might think you're just a thief and call. You will often be ahead and at worst a 30% dog unless he has AA.
You're fine with not being called as well because 2.5BB is still a decent increase to your stack.
Don't worry too much about it. Just shove and whatever happens your line was not wrong.

tohos said:

Yea I forgot to say that in this case your image is actually helping you. You will be shoving and you don't mind being called by worse like KQ or A9 who might think you're just a thief and call. You will often be ahead and at worst a 30% dog unless he has AA.
You're fine with not being called as well because 2.5BB is still a decent increase to your stack.
Don't worry too much about it. Just shove and whatever happens your line was not wrong.

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I wasn't convinced, so I did some more technical work to try to figure out the exact EV that stealing would warrant in the long run.

I plugged in the range I thought people might call me with into Equilab. I included A9o+, A7s+, KQ, KJs, and 22+. I think that I was pretty generous in purposefully overshooting how wide their range is. This incorporates 14% of hands. There were 5 people behind me, meaning each one won't have one of these hands 86% of the time. That means I won't be called (.86)^5 % of the time, or about 47% of the time I will pick up a 16% chip up.

The other 53% of the time, I'll have 46% equity against that aforementioned range according to Equilab.

This is about a +7% positive EV play, you are right.

I think also, due to the fact it is on the bubble, ranges are actually much narrower and my fold equity and likely even my all in equity if we take small pairs out of the range are probably both higher.

Thanks for the reply.

Players will tend to think you're shoving/stealing wide if you just join a table & open-shove 3x in-a-row (when effective stacks are all about 12-15bb's), but when you think about it, wouldn't the 3rd shove actually tend to be a bit tighter? I mean even you yourself here was considering laying down ATs because you'd just stolen blinds twice in-a-row... now knowing that you're even considering laying that down... why wouldn't the other players tend to put you on a stronger range the 3rd time you shove... instead of the opposite?

(just read this closer... turns out you weren't open-shoving.. just raising while on a shove stack.... but still.. I think my response has some merit).

Poker Orifice said:

Players will tend to think you're shoving/stealing wide if you just join a table & open-shove 3x in-a-row (when effective stacks are all about 12-15bb's), but when you think about it, wouldn't the 3rd shove actually tend to be a bit tighter? I mean even you yourself here was considering laying down ATs because you'd just stolen blinds twice in-a-row... now knowing that you're even considering laying that down... why wouldn't the other players tend to put you on a stronger range the 3rd time you shove... instead of the opposite?

(just read this closer... turns out you weren't open-shoving.. just raising while on a shove stack.... but still.. I think my response has some merit).

Click to expand...

I understand your reasoning but now you've gone into level thinking (ie what does my opponent think I have on the 3rd steal attempt). One mistake many players make is giving opponents too much credit, particularly at lower buyins. You have made a thinking player rationalization (which is what I would expect from you), but that honestly is too much credit for a majority of online players. They see 3 steals in a row and may start calling any ace, 2 broadways, etc

The buyin really does factor in, as does the bubble. Back to the original OP question, though, "Should I tighten my steal range?" My gut response was "yes" as this is something I have considered quite a bit. I personally tighten my range a bit here.

I prefer the opposite scenario, though, where I steal with rags a couple hands in a row and then pick up the monster ... and then have AA cracked by KJo as he thought I was stealing light

jasonv12 said:

I wasn't convinced, so I did some more technical work to try to figure out the exact EV that stealing would warrant in the long run.

I plugged in the range I thought people might call me with into Equilab. I included A9o+, A7s+, KQ, KJs, and 22+. I think that I was pretty generous in purposefully overshooting how wide their range is. This incorporates 14% of hands. There were 5 people behind me, meaning each one won't have one of these hands 86% of the time. That means I won't be called (.86)^5 % of the time, or about 47% of the time I will pick up a 16% chip up.

The other 53% of the time, I'll have 46% equity against that aforementioned range according to Equilab.

This is about a +7% positive EV play, you are right.

I think also, due to the fact it is on the bubble, ranges are actually much narrower and my fold equity and likely even my all in equity if we take small pairs out of the range are probably both higher.

Thanks for the reply.

Click to expand...

You have to assume their position too and having 2 or 3 people behind, their calling range is much smaller. The range you give would be good enough for SB/BB but the CO and BTN would probably only call with 5% of hands 88+, AJ+ maybe AT+, KQ. It takes a stronger hand to call with than to shove.

Also, when you're so short you don't mind flipping for a shot at doubling up. Only 2.6% of hands dominate you. Don't just look at whether the play itself is +EV for that particular hand in a tournament. As a short stack you simply MUST double up at one point to have any shot of winning the tournament unless everyone folds every hand. ATs from hijack is a pretty decent spot for that shot. It sucks if you lose but as a short stack you have nothing to lose. You'll blind out if you don't take chances anyways.

When i was reading the OP, i was sure that the OP was going to get called by some marginal hand and lose. I have read a lot of posts on a lot of forums and have never seen someone make a post about such an obvious shove when they actually won the hand. This is an easy shove no matter what their calling ranges are. If they call very loose, u will be ahead of their range. If they have a tight calling range, u will win the blinds so often that it is profitable.

I think there is something to be said for shifting gears. If you shove every time you get a big ace...this was not, IMO, a time to shift, however. I mean, you were short stacked, so you needed to get a call with one of those big hands to double up.

Having just joined the table, you really did not know if limping or min raising a huge hand would get the desired effect; a raise you can then shove to.

If someone short stacked enters the pot for a raise with a weak hand (gets pot committed)...get my drift? Then they feel they must call your shove as they already raised it and they cannot afford to throw it away. You catch them off guard then with your big ace. So If you have the chips to limp or min raise coming in to entice a short stack to call your re-pop, then you have them, hopefully.

12 BB's? I think you have to shove, 3 times in a row or not.