Originally Posted by tohos
Yea I forgot to say that in this case your image is actually helping you. You will be shoving and you don't mind being called by worse like KQ or A9 who might think you're just a thief and call. You will often be ahead and at worst a 30% dog unless he has AA.
You're fine with not being called as well because 2.5BB is still a decent increase to your stack.
Don't worry too much about it. Just shove and whatever happens your line was not wrong.
I wasn't convinced, so I did some more technical work to try to figure out the exact EV that stealing would warrant in the long run.
I plugged in the range I thought people might call me with into Equilab. I included A9o+, A7s+, KQ, KJs, and 22+. I think that I was pretty generous in purposefully overshooting how wide their range is. This incorporates 14% of hands. There were 5 people behind me, meaning each one won't have one of these hands 86% of the time. That means I won't be called (.86)^5 % of the time, or about 47% of the time I will pick up a 16% chip up.
The other 53% of the time, I'll have 46% equity against that aforementioned range according to Equilab.
This is about a +7% positive EV play, you are right.
I think also, due to the fact it is on the bubble, ranges are actually much narrower and my fold equity and likely even my all in equity if we take small pairs out of the range are probably both higher.
Thanks for the reply.