re: Poker & When Is It Time To Play Loose/Make Coinflips?
Originally Posted by shannonknowles
Early double ups don't win tournaments. Playing a strategy with the intent to risk your whole tournament life early on for a chip lead will more than often only lead to exiting early so unless your 100 percent sure you have the nuts then its not worth the risk.
I think the mid stage of the tournament is the right time to loosen up and start playing aggressive, if you double up here I'm assuming you will have an above average chip stack which will take you in to the money if you play correct.
I want to address this post specifically because it seems to be the prevailing wisdom among recreational tournament players and is 100% wrong.
Of course early double ups don't win tournaments however early double ups DRAMATICALLY INCREASE your odds
of winning a tournament. I would say that if a winning tournament player gets an early double or triple up he improves his chances of winning the tournament by an order of magnitude or factor of ten. So instead of being 1% to win the tournament he now has a 10% chance!!!
I always find it ironic how players are so hesitant to "flip" early in a tournament (i.e. call two all-in shoves with AKs) however later in when they get short they have no problem shoving all-in with A4o from HJ trying to steal the blinds because they are short stacked...
Really stop and think about that for a moment. No, really, think about that.
There is one trait among good tournament players that consistently reach the bubble way ahead of the chip average, and that is recognizing those "key" tournament moments.
Think about this. Would you agree that it is virtually IMPOSSIBLE to win a tournament without flipping a few times? So, lets say that in order to win a tournament you will have to flip 4 times all-in.
Now ask yourself, when do you want to flip and/or risk your "tournament life".
Scenario #1. Hero is short stacked at 9bb, chip average is at 21bb, 10 places till the bubble. Hero gets K4o in the CO and Hero shoves to steal the blinds, thus risking his tournament life with K4o....
Scenario #2. Round 3 of tournament, blinds 100/200 avg stacks are at 10,000 chips. V1 and V2 are super spewtarded donks who have been seen going all-in as light as 88 and AJ. V1 raises 600, Hero 3-bets w QQ to 1600, V2 shoves, V1 shoves, Hero???
In Scenario #1, Hero is risking his tournament life with an inferior hand and if called is in serious trouble. However, this has become "accepted" among most players as they realize you need to steal blinds.
In Scenario #2, Hero has a great hand in a perfect situation to TRIPLE UP, however conventional rec-fish wisdom is to "not flip" so early in a tournament simply because its early???
I'm telling you, that wisdom is 100% flat out wrong!!!!
The earlier you amass chips the better your odds are of winning the tournament. In fact, its not linear. I'm not saying you need to splash around and lag it up. No. But what I am saying is you can't pass up on these spots when they come up. Or put another way, if you "only" logic for not flipping is simply because its "too early" that is just faulty logic. Would you ever fold AA preflop becuase "its too early" to put your tournament life at risk? no. that's absurd. Whenever you feel you have an equity advantage you should be willing to flip. Doesn't matter if it is the very first hand or if you are on the bubble.