When do you feel it is safe to coast in a sat

cdooley72

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At what point to you feel it is safe to coast into a win in a sat?

One I played not to long ago had a 100 seat pay out and I was in 1st place and knew I could just coast in. It was funny because I kept getting great hands and folding them because I felt it was not worth the risk. But at other time I am not as sure as I was that time and it got me thinking as to when it is pretty much a sure thing. Like the one I just played I did end up getting the win but there was some wiggle room so to say. And that bring us back to the question.

When do you feel 100% sure that you are safe and have no reason to risk your chips?
 
kltpzyxMrM

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I try to find a previously run satellite(s) with the same structure that have finished and use them to gauge when I decide to stop playing. I also try to leave my self a little bit of an additional cushion since my actual mileage may vary.
 
youregoodmate

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You can generally work out roughly when the bubble will burst, as soon as I have enough chips to fold my way in and still be comfortable I will.

Usually needs a lot though to do that, so until then keep the pressure up.
 
cdooley72

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Well that is my question is when do you feel you are good to go. I mean sometime it is a given, you have 100k in chip and the bubble is around 8k. But where do you find that line as far as hmmm maybe I can and maybe I can not.
 
youregoodmate

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It really depends on the tourney, blind structure, places at stake.
 
PtomainePtolemy

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Maybe do an M-number calculation then watching the lobby to see how fast people are getting eliminated. Write down your m number and the number of people gone after the last 2 or 3 periods of each blind level. You should should be able to calculate a rough estimate of chips needed and time to the bubble. Taking into account the fact that play slows down as the bubble approaches you'll probably want to over estimate this a bit. Or as others have said look at the results of the same tournament when it ran previously and see what the stack sizes were. You'll still need to figure out the rate of how fast you'll bleed chips if you sit out so knowing M will probably help to estimate via the comparison method as well.
 
Poker Orifice

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youregoodmate said:
Usually needs a lot though to do that, so until then keep the pressure up.
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I disagree. Often in a satellite you'll find yourself (or one will find themselves) sitting with a decent stack (one that has FE) and then will get into hands where risk is not worth reward (ie. they spew a bit off and now put themselves in a spot they werent' in prior to the hand). There's no benefit to accumulating in a satty (unless it's a satty that only has a few seats obviously.)
 
Arjonius

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I look at a combination of factors. How many more people have to bust? What are their stack sizes, and how big or small are they relative to the blinds? Generally, the more small and tiny stacks there are and the fewer you need to bust out, the more likely you can coast in with a mid or even below mid stack.
 
youregoodmate

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Poker Orifice said:
I disagree. Often in a satellite you'll find yourself (or one will find themselves) sitting with a decent stack (one that has FE) and then will get into hands where risk is not worth reward (ie. they spew a bit off and now put themselves in a spot they werent' in prior to the hand). There's no benefit to accumulating in a satty (unless it's a satty that only has a few seats obviously.)
Click to expand...

Are you suggesting playing passively? If you can fold yourself into the money then its fine, but until then I would play it like any other tourney. Id rather keep stealing/3 betting with a big stack than let it dwindle and take a flip late on for everything.
 
cdooley72

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I am surprised that some math geek has not done some sorta equation for this. Like with x amount of seats available with x amount of people left with x amount of blind, you need to have x amount of chips to coast.
 
IntenseHeat

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I just keep playing. I think part of it is just my personality. Another part of it is feeling a sense of responsibility to keep the tourney moving. After all, someone has to knock off the short stacks. I've been in some where 100 qualify for the next tourney, sitting on a top 20 stack, and everyone but the two or three big stacks at the table are just in fold mode. None of us are gonna do anything stupid to put too many chips at risk, but we're still playing for small pots.

I would say that I would have to be in the top 50% of the field to feel really safe at any point in the tourney. Coming down to the wire with I would like to be in the top 70% to feel comfortable. I'm never really going to try to coast though. I might tighten up, but I tend to agree with "youregoodmate". With players stalling and folding anything but monster pairs, depending on stack size and blinds, and as some short stacks inevitably double up, you could find yourself blinded down and in trouble. Again, I'm not trying to do anything stupid, but I would rather play while my stack is big enough to have to be respected than to let it get down to the point where I have to shove and people feel like they can afford to try to call and hit a fortunate flop on me.

Again, let me reiterate, we don't want to be doing anything stupid. I've actually been in a satellite where top 100 qualify and was in around 20th, when a guy who was somewhere around 35th bluffed his whole stack off to me after I flopped top set. I remember wondering WTF, thinking that he could have easily coasted to the finish.
 
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Jblocher1

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I use math to figure out what the average stack should be when u hit the point where u qualify. For example, lets say u r in the 100 seats guaranteed tournament. With 2500 players. You know that 1 out of every 25 players will qualify. So therefore once you have the chips of 25 players you will have about the average going into the final 100 and therefore be able to coast. So if the starting stack is 1500 chips. You do 1500 times 25 and get the average stack hope this helps
 
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I find satty tourneys a bit hard to play.especially if its only top 1 or 2 that get the seat.I usually try to get ahead early and see if i can make it then.,by getting ahead early.I really need a better strategy for sitngo type sattys ,and i will read thru some of the threads about that topic.
 
Poker Orifice

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IntenseHeat said:
I just keep playing. I think part of it is just my personality. Another part of it is feeling a sense of responsibility to keep the tourney moving. After all, someone has to knock off the short stacks. I've been in some where 100 qualify for the next tourney, sitting on a top 20 stack, and everyone but the two or three big stacks at the table are just in fold mode. None of us are gonna do anything stupid to put too many chips at risk, but we're still playing for small pots.

I would say that I would have to be in the top 50% of the field to feel really safe at any point in the tourney. Coming down to the wire with I would like to be in the top 70% to feel comfortable. I'm never really going to try to coast though. I might tighten up, but I tend to agree with "youregoodmate". With players stalling and folding anything but monster pairs, depending on stack size and blinds, and as some short stacks inevitably double up, you could find yourself blinded down and in trouble. Again, I'm not trying to do anything stupid, but I would rather play while my stack is big enough to have to be respected than to let it get down to the point where I have to shove and people feel like they can afford to try to call and hit a fortunate flop on me.

Again, let me reiterate, we don't want to be doing anything stupid. I've actually been in a satellite where top 100 qualify and was in around 20th, when a guy who was somewhere around 35th bluffed his whole stack off to me after I flopped top set. I remember wondering WTF, thinking that he could have easily coasted to the finish.
Click to expand...
Typically in online large-field sattelites, 80% of the stacks at the table only have a shove/fold stack.
Feeling it's your duty to keep the tourney moving along or to knock out the shortstacks is pretty ridiculous imo (< because you win nothing extra for it period). If you only risk losing tourney equity w/o gaining any... why get involved?
I've played hundreds of online satellites and the reason they're so profitable is because of soooo many players who fail to make proper adjustments. (I played 15 satties this past week & cashed in 11 of them (they were particularly easy ones though, .. with seats added, lol).
 
Poker Orifice

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Jblocher1 said:
I use math to figure out what the average stack should be when u hit the point where u qualify. For example, lets say u r in the 100 seats guaranteed tournament. With 2500 players. You know that 1 out of every 25 players will qualify. So therefore once you have the chips of 25 players you will have about the average going into the final 100 and therefore be able to coast. So if the starting stack is 1500 chips. You do 1500 times 25 and get the average stack hope this helps
Click to expand...
You only need 1 chip to win in a satellite. Do ya see where your thinking is flawed ... thinking you'd need to project towards having a stack that is somewhere close to the average?
 
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