When is 3-bet shoving profitable?

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GomiumPoker

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I was playing a tournament yesterday and I ran into this situation. The HJ player has a stack of around 13.5 BBs and open-raises to 2 BB. I have a 22BB stack and look down at A7s in the small blind. Everyone folds to me and I think that this is a good hand to 3-bet shove with as a bluff since I have an important blocker and I will still have a decent equity when called. So I did it and the opponent had QQ and I'm out. I'm constantly finding myself in these spots where I pick up a suited rag-ace and try to shove it as a bluff and get called by better. I've lost plenty of tournaments with this line, so I think it isn't profitable to do these shoves. Which hands should I 3-bet shove as a bluff then? Can't seem to think of better hands to do so.
 
Shumkoolie

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I find that more and more people who are sitting with shorter stacks (<15 bbs) will often throw in a small raise, hoping to induce a 3bet shove. While A7 potentially blocks bigger Ax hands, your hand plays relatively poorly to what amounts to be a shove stack Even though villain is technically not shoving, they are, in effect hoping for someone to "force" them to put all their chips in. I'm folding A7 in this spot 100% of the time and feeling confident it's the right play.

You say your finding yourself in these spots many times, maybe it's time to evaluate the wisdom of 3 bet shoving a bad Ace. You're almost NEVER going to get A6 and worse to call and if you are called, you are practically NEVER ahead. You're only REALLY ahead of hands like KQ, and even then, in THIS specific situation, KQ is probably NOT putting chips in, and if they are, they are shoving and you are folding anyway.

As for good 3 bet hands? Well, it REALLY depends on your table and how people are playing. Stack sizes (yours and theirs) factor into what's a good 3 bet hand, because when you're deep, you can 3 bet a wider range. Whereas, in an MTT, when people are looking for spots to shove, their range is going to be tighter, so that's where you need to figure out your 3-bet range in different stages of a tournament.
 
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Ianmacca99

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You really want to avoid shoving with those type of hands unless it's blind on blind really or your really short but even then we aren't happy. Shoving spots are better when they are less players left to act and players are deeper above 25 bb since you'll have more fold equity. A lot depends on your opponents your image as well if your playing loose your likely to be called lighter

Typically players making a raise off a smaller stack tend to be at the top of their range and are hoping someone comes over the top.
 
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fundiver199

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According to ICMizer this is a profitable jam, unless you are near the bubble or on the final table. Its so easy to get results oriented and remember the times, we do this and bust, but forget the times, where we either increase our stack 30% uncontested or get the full dubble up. Of course we are not expecting CO to fold QQ, but QQ is not his entire range, so we just ran into the top of it this time. And even then we still had a 30% chance to "suck out" on him.

The times, we might select to not do this, is, if we have some kind of read, that CO is either a nit or a calling station. ICMizer assume, CO is opening 30% of hands and only calling around 10% of hands, and we want these assumptions to be at least close. Otherwise we can pass and just wait for the next hand to be dealt. But in a vacuum this is fine, and if we keep on doing it over and over again, results will eventually follow.
 
Shumkoolie

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According to ICMizer this is a profitable jam, unless you are near the bubble or on the final table. Its so easy to get results oriented and remember the times, we do this and bust, but forget the times, where we either increase our stack 30% uncontested or get the full dubble up. Of course we are not expecting CO to fold QQ, but QQ is not his entire range, so we just ran into the top of it this time. And even then we still had a 30% chance to "suck out" on him.

The times, we might select to not do this, is, if we have some kind of read, that CO is either a nit or a calling station. ICMizer assume, CO is opening 30% of hands and only calling around 10% of hands, and we want these assumptions to be at least close. Otherwise we can pass and just wait for the next hand to be dealt. But in a vacuum this is fine, and if we keep on doing it over and over again, results will eventually follow.


I'm glad you brought up ICMizer because while looking at the numbers alone saying "this is a profitable jam", if you go strictly with numbers, you REALLY actually put yourself in -EV spots far more often if you don't factor in your opponents, which is something you brought up too, but based on OP's note, they keep finding themselves in these situations, so it's not just that it's a profitable play, but that they are misapplying the concept. So in short, I think while I agree that it can be profitable, those situations don't happen often enough that should warrant going for that spot all the time.

I've played in enough games against the same players where I'm NEVER going to shove A7 into their raise because they are ONLY EVER raising the top of their range (JJ+ and even some people will only do it with KK+ - I've seen enough of a sample size on those specific people to know that I'm going to NEVER shove almost my entire range against them).

I'd be more inclined to just call if I'm last to act and see a flop. Enough times, they are married to their hand, and if I flop a huge draw or a big hand, I'm going to let them hang themselves, and inevitably, they do.

So, I think in short, it's knowing HOW to apply what a calculator provides to you is what's most important.
 
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UkoChebuko

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Actually in this situation is better if HJ was with let's say 20bb. But still this is HJ...Pretty loose shove. You hand, A7s is better vs bigger stack, because then you are hoping for FE. You are not hoping for equity with this hand. I mean 22 can be good enough vs big stack, and not enough vs short. ATo as well. When you expect low FE or no FE, then you hand must be "heavy", with value. Like KQo, ATs, 99. If his stack is deeper, then better hand.
In this situation A7s can be profitable shove, but if you know something. Wide range or high fold vs 3bet. As default I will not do that. Also you are on SB, if BB calls, you will not be so happy. Never...With this hand...I expect good equity with this hand, 41-42% , but almost no FE, ~ 20%. Also the BB behind...Can be borderline or very little profitable. Depends on the ante, ICM...But can't be profitable "for sure". As default..."As bluff", no way...

The pocket pairs are better. Ax with good kicker. Weaker is acceptable if the hand is suited. But not much weaker, let's say KQo and KJs is good enough, but KTs not. Hands like, JTs, T9s are good , if you expect good FE...
Depends on that which hands in his calling range are weaker than your hand. And how many combos. This is very very important. I mean realy, this is the main factor. A7s...Good hand, if you expect more FE.
 
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fundiver199

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but based on OP's note, they keep finding themselves in these situations.

Heros experience could be the result of playing in games with many nits and many calling stations, where it might be reasonable to tighten up those re-jam ranges a bit. However selective memory might also play a role. If we go with the ICMizer numbers, then Hero pick it up uncontested around 60% of the time, which to me sound just about right.

But picking it up uncontested is not very memorable, even though Hero increased his stack 30%, so these “small victories” are quickly forgotten. Whereas those 40% of the time, where Hero get action, he is usually behind, and he often bust from the tournament, so these outcomes leave a much stronger impression. There is even some element of feeling silly, when we jam as a bluff and get called by an obvious value hand like QQ or AK.
 
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UkoChebuko

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HJ raise-fold 2bb with 13.5 stack, 60% of the time. So unreal...How can be bad this shove then? This shove is amazing then...I will think for 74s as well, not only for A7s. If I have 60% FE. Vs 13.5bb stack...
 
tagece

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Frankly, I tried to play hands this way and didn't get good results. I think that just raising something like 6 BBs would not be a bad idea, due the fact he did just a small raise. Calling would be fair too. But the shove it's to risky with an A7 hand. As said above, you will be with a worst hand a lot of times. When you are really deep and can lose 13 BBs without be in trouble, ok. But it's not a good play when it can put out of the tournament.
 
swerdnase

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What stakes are you playing? I actually like the idea behind this play, but there are some points to consider.

1) If you are playing low/microstakes, this play will work far less frequently because players at this level play much more standard and chart-oriented, so you're likely jamming into a reasonable section of their range. Even if they aren't chart-oriented, they often lack the discipline to fold marginal hands like KJ, AT, etc. Either scenario doesn't bode well for A7.

2) In general, you have the correct idea, but you can induce the same fold by raising 3-4bb, which would essentially pot commit your opponent in this scenario. If they decide to 4-bet jam, you can comfortably fold despite the pot odds you're getting.
 
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fundiver199

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1) If you are playing low/microstakes, this play will work far less frequently because players at this level play much more standard and chart-oriented, so you're likely jamming into a reasonable section of their range. Even if they aren't chart-oriented, they often lack the discipline to fold marginal hands like KJ, AT, etc. Either scenario doesn't bode well for A7.

This is a fair point. At very low buyins even many of the regulars are not opening enough hands, and pretty much everyone dont fold enough to 3-bets, especially when there is ICM-pressure. So it is a reasonable general adjustment to do a bit less light re-jamming.

2) In general, you have the correct idea, but you can induce the same fold by raising 3-4bb, which would essentially pot commit your opponent in this scenario. If they decide to 4-bet jam, you can comfortably fold despite the pot odds you're getting.

This is a really bad idea. Nobody is going to fold, when you give them like 10:1 and position, and if you do this and fold to a jam, then you just wasted 3-4BB without even realising any of your equity. When the effective stack is 13,5BB, we should only call from big blind seat. From any other seat we are in fold or jam mode. And if jamming A7s is not profitable, then we just fold. Very easy and simple.
 
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Mahdi

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I`d fold A7 here after opening the pot, probably our hand dominated with such small open with him haveing small stack
Shoving with Ax cards is good when you open the pot and in late positions, otherwise it won't be profitable really often
 
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1nsomn1a

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When an opponent with a short stack makes a mini raise, it is alarming and looks like a desire to get a call and raise in return, because with a short stack, he thinks about the option when his opponents overdraw him and deliberately goes for it, which indicates a strong hand.:)
 
partz

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I have one word for this. Anytime! Haha
 
swerdnase

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This is a really bad idea. Nobody is going to fold, when you give them like 10:1 and position, and if you do this and fold to a jam, then you just wasted 3-4BB without even realising any of your equity. When the effective stack is 13,5BB, we should only call from big blind seat. From any other seat we are in fold or jam mode. And if jamming A7s is not profitable, then we just fold. Very easy and simple.

Oops, what I meant was 3-4bb over the initial raise, so around 6-7bb total. That makes it closer to 4:1, and position doesn't matter much anymore since the SPR is essentially 1 if villain calls, but we're not exactly expecting a call here since we're forcing villain into a fold/jam decision themselves. I get your point though and generally agree with it.

I admit that this particular scenario is a bit murky given the villain's stack size, but I was trying to offer alternative lines against LP steal attempts in general (specifically deeper stacked opponents) since OP keeps getting stuck in these re-steal situations. I am also working under the assumption that ICM and bubble pressure is in effect given the relatively short stacks and preflop folds.
 
7CardKillR

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I flat the A7s against most MTT population on these stacks 60% I 3 bet jam 40% I flat vs a normally playable range. if the big blind tend towards being bad I flat much more often. if hes a threat and is stacked in a way to be threatening to me I tend to Jam
 
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some39thing

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Only 3 bet shove with AQ AK JJ or above
 
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