What are the odds?

etherghost

etherghost

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I was playing three different tournaments today. In one I even made the bubble which, at least, allowed me to break almost even. Unfortunately I was knocked out of all three by very strong hands. I am usually a very tight player, especially in the early stage of the tournament but as it turns out it doesn't always work because of these times when you get cooled. You know what I'm talking about, right? ;)

Anyhow, the interesting part is that in all three tournaments I was knocked out by quads (2 times by quad T and 1 time by quad J) while holding KK twice and AA once.

Now, what are the odds of this happening in the same day to the same player in 3 consecutive tournaments? :cool:

edit: I should mention that action was all-in preflop.
 
Creepy Jackalope

Creepy Jackalope

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The strangest things happen in this game. I think most of us that have been playing for a while have seen, and been involved in the darndest of things.
 
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RamdeeBen

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No idea of the odds but, when your playing a lot of hands these things aren't all that uncommon. Also, you need to loosen up your game if your only getting in premium hands in pre flop middle/late/bubble stages of tournaments.
 
D

dallasroad6000

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Feel your pain

Astronomical odds for sure. But it happened to me yesterday. i got knocked off the bubble by quad 5s while holding trip Qs. ouch. i feel your pain .

:shakehand
 
etherghost

etherghost

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No idea of the odds but, when your playing a lot of hands these things aren't all that uncommon. Also, you need to loosen up your game if your only getting in premium hands in pre flop middle/late/bubble stages of tournaments.

Yes, I probably should loosen up my game a bit. The thing is that I usually end up missing the flop either way. What I mean is that about 65-70 percent of the time when I hold high cards the flop shows low and vice versa. I end up loosing a quite a bit of chips by limping in with these hands and when I try to raise with something like 10Js, JQs or 10Qs I end up being re-raised by huge amounts or even all in. This is mostly the reason why I play super tight until the bubble. Any other game play suggestions are welcome. :)
 
etherghost

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Astronomical odds for sure. But it happened to me yesterday. i got knocked off the bubble by quad 5s while holding trip Qs. ouch. i feel your pain .

:shakehand

Ouch! That was a cool cooler! :D
 
Arjonius

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Yes, I probably should loosen up my game a bit. The thing is that I usually end up missing the flop either way. What I mean is that about 65-70 percent of the time when I hold high cards the flop shows low and vice versa.
Do you have any empirical evidence to support this 65-70% figure, or do you just feel it happens a lot, so you're guessing a range that fits?

When you have unpaired hole cards, you will miss the flop more often than not. So will your opponents, which contributes to making position important. If you're OOP and usually check-fold after missing the flop and seeing the opponent bet, that can be quite a few pots - not big ones, but they add up. Otoh, if you have position and the opponent plays this way, you win those pots by betting after he checks even though you missed.

I end up loosing a quite a bit of chips by limping in with these hands
So don't. Limping too much is a very common leak among entry-level players.

and when I try to raise with something like 10Js, JQs or 10Qs I end up being re-raised by huge amounts or even all in. This is mostly the reason why I play super tight until the bubble. Any other game play suggestions are welcome. :)
Hands like these are easy folds sometimes and easy openers other times. It's not just about the strength of your cards, but also about position, the opponents, etc.

Playing tight in order to decrease how often you risk busting out approaching the bubble is pretty common among entry-level players. It's not a bad strategy for those whose skills are below average. But it's sub-optimal for average and better. If you want to be average or better, you need to improve your understanding of when, how and why to play these hands, and not play them.
 
etherghost

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Limping too much is a very common leak among entry-level players.

Yes, I understand this. The reason I do is due to the type of players I play with. It's not every tournament I'm talking about, just the recent freerolls I've been playing.

Playing tight in order to decrease how often you risk busting out approaching the bubble is pretty common among entry-level players. It's not a bad strategy for those whose skills are below average. But it's sub-optimal for average and better. If you want to be average or better, you need to improve your understanding of when, how and why to play these hands, and not play them.

Yes, I used to think of myself as an average and sometimes a little above average player but this has changed when I started to actually learn poker away from the table. I think I have good potential to grow and be an excellent player, especially live. I do read people very well.

Any suggestions for MTT books or sites where I can learn in depth strategies?
 
Jacki Burkhart

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When you play online you'll see so many hands that you'll see some pretty weird stuff. The other day I was playing on 3 tables and got dealt :10h4: :9h4: on all 3 tables simultaneously, and it was my action on all 3 tables at the same time! I had to do a double take, I thought my screens had frozen or multiplied or something....weird!

Yes, I probably should loosen up my game a bit. The thing is that I usually end up missing the flop either way. What I mean is that about 65-70 percent of the time when I hold high cards the flop shows low and vice versa. I end up loosing a quite a bit of chips by limping in with these hands and when I try to raise with something like 10Js, JQs or 10Qs I end up being re-raised by huge amounts or even all in. This is mostly the reason why I play super tight until the bubble. Any other game play suggestions are welcome. :)

You will miss the flop roughly 2/3 of the time, so your perception is probably accurate. This is why it is so important to play pots in position. When people limp into you, and you have these marginally playable hands in late position, you should frequently fold and occasionally raise them. If they re-raise you, easy fold and then note that person will limp-shove or limp re-raise.
You want to loosen up your game, but do it gradually and with a plan. so, for instance don't start raising JTo in early position, I know we see guys on TV raise with worse but we're not them.

First order of business in loosening up your game is only for medium strength hands in late position. Obviously we will play strong hands from any position.

Next step is C-betting on dry flops.

Eventually you will work up to playing medium hands in middle position and weaker hands in late position.....but that comes much much later with a lot more post flop experience...
 
etherghost

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missjacki said:
You will miss the flop roughly 2/3 of the time, so your perception is probably accurate. This is why it is so important to play pots in position. When people limp into you, and you have these marginally playable hands in late position, you should frequently fold and occasionally raise them. If they re-raise you, easy fold and then note that person will limp-shove or limp re-raise.
You want to loosen up your game, but do it gradually and with a plan. so, for instance don't start raising JTo in early position, I know we see guys on TV raise with worse but we're not them.

First order of business in loosening up your game is only for medium strength hands in late position. Obviously we will play strong hands from any position.

Next step is C-betting on dry flops.

Eventually you will work up to playing medium hands in middle position and weaker hands in late position.....but that comes much much later with a lot more post flop experience...

Thanks missjacki. I really appreciate your advice. It makes the pathway to excellence that much clearer now that you've put it into perspective nicely organized. :)
 
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skipizzle

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Astronomical odds for sure. But it happened to me yesterday. i got knocked off the bubble by quad 5s while holding trip Qs. ouch. i feel your pain .

:shakehand

Wouldn't that mean you had a full house?

You will miss the flop roughly 2/3 of the time, so your perception is probably accurate. This is why it is so important to play pots in position. When people limp into you, and you have these marginally playable hands in late position, you should frequently fold and occasionally raise them. If they re-raise you, easy fold and then note that person will limp-shove or limp re-raise.
You want to loosen up your game, but do it gradually and with a plan. so, for instance don't start raising JTo in early position, I know we see guys on TV raise with worse but we're not them.

First order of business in loosening up your game is only for medium strength hands in late position. Obviously we will play strong hands from any position.

Next step is C-betting on dry flops.

Eventually you will work up to playing medium hands in middle position and weaker hands in late position.....but that comes much much later with a lot more post flop experience...

This is great advice! Thanks.
 
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emilio3645

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Crazy days happen.

AA and KK are sometimes spoken about like they're invincible hands though. I get quite nervous playing AA from how many times it has failed me on an all-in.
 
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