What are the maximum odds of winning the tournament?

BelFish · Sep 29, 2020

I mean are there any estimates for games for N players. Since we are trying to determine the maximum odds, we should only consider the best players in the world class, such as Negrianu.

For example, if Phil Ivey will play a 220 player freeroll from CardsChat, could he have a > 4%-5% chance of winning, or is that not possible?

BelFish · Sep 29, 2020

It would also be interesting to estimate the chances of winning for a player who can see all the cards of the others. Could he have a chance of winning > 50%? Maybe > 90%? Or maybe he can't win more than 15% of games...

Joe · Sep 29, 2020

BelFish said:
I mean are there any estimates for games for N players. Since we are trying to determine the maximum odds, we should only consider the best players in the world class, such as Negrianu.

For example, if Phil Ivey will play a 220 player freeroll from CardsChat, could he have a > 4%-5% chance of winning, or is that not possible?

I think it would be difficult to calculate, lots of variables...

BelFish said:
It would also be interesting to estimate the chances of winning for a player who can see all the cards of the others. Could he have a chance of winning > 50%? Maybe > 90%? Or maybe he can't win more than 15% of games...

I think if you can see all your opponents' cards and know how to play poker, it's difficult to lose.

Just look at ultimate bet super user and Mike Postle..

If you know your opponents holdings, difficult to lose...

BelFish · Sep 29, 2020

Tracid said:
I think it would be difficult to calculate, lots of variables...

Maybe some professional players made some estimates according to their statistics over a long distance... Or someone made at least rough estimates with calculations in books...

Although they say that there is no limit to perfection in the skill of the game, it is still impossible to exceed a certain percentage of victories in tournaments. If all players are approximately equal in skill, then everyone's chance of winning is about p = 1/N, perhaps even for the top tournament players the chance of winning cannot exceed p = 3/N.

Tracid said:
I think if you can see all your opponents' cards and know how to play poker, it's difficult to lose.

Just look at ultimate bet super user and Mike Postle..

If you know your opponents holdings, difficult to lose...

Perhaps for tournaments with a very slow structure, this is close to the truth. Or perhaps very far )) Without practice, such a game is difficult to understand. For example, you should always fold AA with preflop all-ins to exceed the probability of winning the tournament at least 80%. I doubt that in a tournament for 10,000 people you can take first place in more than 10%, provided that you see all the player's cards.

BelFish · Dec 12, 2022

Decided to resurrect my old thread. Perhaps now one of the new users will join the discussion and express their opinion on 2 questions of the topic. I look forward to an active discussion. At least just assumptions about percentages, let someone express...

puzzlefish · Dec 12, 2022

BelFish said:
Decided to resurrect my old thread. Perhaps now one of the new users will join the discussion and express their opinion on 2 questions of the topic. I look forward to an active discussion. At least just assumptions about percentages, let someone express...

I think other members have already mentioned there are way too many variables to control to come to a number.

Edge case is where all players except one sit out the entire tournament, so you would have 100% chance of that one player winning. Another edge case is where all but one player runs the worst possible way with variance. Same result of 100% for that one player to win who has variance on their side. That's your maximum odds.

Then there will be everything in-between depending on how many players are playing, what their skill levels are, how variance is affecting everyone on that particular tournament, just to name a few.

What I would love to know is if all skill is roughly the same, then what are the odds with just variance dictating the direction of a game.

BelFish · Dec 12, 2022

In any case, it is possible to make reasonable models with simplified approximations for the 2 given questions and obtain some solution results for these models.

fadred719 · Dec 12, 2022

What are the maximum chances of winning the tournament?))) 100 percent is the maximum)))

puzzlefish · Dec 13, 2022

BelFish said:
In any case, it is possible to make reasonable models with simplified approximations for the 2 given questions and obtain some solution results for these models.

Then I would ask which approximations you would choose and why, and how this exercise would be beneficial to you as a poker player. I think you're capable of doing the mathematics, but in the end the universe may have already determined where you will end up on the bell curve.

BelFish · Dec 13, 2022

Any exercise in calculations is good for the brain. And this is also a rather interesting question, - it is not necessary that this give only benefit for game, there may be pleasure from a beautiful solution to a problem...

In addition, one could try to use such information in a bet where bets are made on the victory of famous players such as Negreanu or Ivey in some tournaments.

P.S. I made something like a differential equation with the help of some assumptions and through iterations i watched how the final prize places would be redistributed with an increase in the frequency of winning first places in tournaments. At the same time, the overall percentage of ITM gradually decreased, and the ROI increased up to a certain point. And you can calculate the extremum point when the ROI stops increasing. Then the resulting total number of first places taken divided by the total number of games will give the desired percentage for maximum possible frequency of wins in tournaments with the same number of participants and the same structure, i.e. within the considered model.

wavetune · Dec 13, 2022

BelFish said:
I mean are there any estimates for games for N players. Since we are trying to determine the maximum odds, we should only consider the best players in the world class, such as Negrianu.

For example, if Phil Ivey will play a 220 player freeroll from CardsChat, could he have a > 4%-5% chance of winning, or is that not possible?

do I understand correctly that in a tournament of 220 people, all other things being equal, the chance of winning is 1/220 *100 I don't think Negrian is 12 times stronger than the average player

BelFish · Dec 13, 2022

Here, already a good opinion, otherwise they wrote above that the maximum frequency is 100% ))

I also think that even a poker genius like Stu Unger could not take more than 3% of the first places under such conditions...

wavetune · Dec 13, 2022

BelFish said:
Here, already a good opinion, otherwise they wrote above that the maximum frequency is 100% ))

I also think that even a poker genius like Stu Unger could not take more than 3% of the first places under such conditions...

this is quite a likely figure, after all, the tournament lasts a long time and a professional, if he makes a mistake somewhere or gets under a bedbit, can fix the situation, he will have time for this, they have more chances in the tournament, because of the time, but in heads-up, I think out of 10 games they will be able to have an average player to win no more than 7, here they will roughly have an advantage over the average player is not so obvious

BelFish · Dec 13, 2022

In the second question (where the player can see the cards of all participants), it is more difficult to estimate the percentage to win the tournament depending on the number of participants. Maybe in tournaments for 200 participants he could win 70%, and in tournaments for 2000 participants he could not win more than 15%. Or maybe these numbers are fundamentally different.

I think he should play without preflop raises, limping or calling small raises, and pot control on the flop and turn even with fairly strong hands and only shove with the nuts.

P. S. For example, HU against a passive fish, he would win often, but against an aggressive push/fold he would not have a high win frequency.

dreamer13 · Dec 13, 2022

The main reason is that if you really want to win the tournament, then you must use all the chances given to you in the game, starting with the cards being played. This does not mean that you have to go to extremes and become a 70/50 maniac and prohibitive aggression, which are quite easy to "punish", but it will be beneficial for you to expand the ranges and manners of playing them. The best style in tournaments today is loose-aggressive (LAG), when a player dominates, presses and takes away a lot of small pots without much resistance, steadily exploiting the fears and illusions of his opponents. And the effectiveness of this style is confirmed by many professionals and rising poker stars who take risks and win.

BelFish · Dec 13, 2022

Good post! And the equation that i wrote about above was based on playing with increased risk in some spots in order to be able to get to the final tables more often and dominate the field, including due to reads on opponents.

I also saw in VOD that professionals take more risks and at the same time, although their overall percentage of ITM decreases, they get an increased number of TOP places occupied.

wavetune · Dec 13, 2022

BelFish said:
In the second question (where the player can see the cards of all participants), it is more difficult to estimate the percentage to win the tournament depending on the number of participants. Maybe in tournaments for 200 participants he could win 70%, and in tournaments for 2000 participants he could not win more than 15%. Or maybe these numbers are fundamentally different.

I think he should play without preflop raises, limping or calling small raises, and pot control on the flop and turn even with fairly strong hands and only shove with the nuts.

P. S. For example, HU against a passive fish, he would win often, but against an aggressive push/fold he would not have a high win frequency.

to answer this question, we need numbers, pure mathematics here, we can calculate with minimal error, but we do not have data
1, how often a player can collect absolute nats on the flop, turn and river (then our player can push chips without problems)
2, how often all-ins occur on the preflop, post flop etc.,
3, how many hands reach the river (so that our player understands whether he won or not the hand) plus the calculation of the bad bits, etc. this is quite an interesting topic, we need to see on the Internet if there is any data on the hands
and in the case of 2000 players, I don't think that the percentage will be very small,the action still takes place on a table with 9 players, here our player will have to play longer, you can insert a time factor into the formulas...

wavetune · Dec 13, 2022

but by eye, I think the chance with 200 players is no more than 70%, I think 50-70

BelFish · Dec 13, 2022

I also think that in addition to different frequencies for combinations of cards on different streets, a lot also depends on the chosen strategy and tactics of such a player who sees the cards of the rest.

It's not enough to just take and shove when you have the nuts, but you have to try to get as much value out of each hand as possible.

That is, skill is also very important here, and it is necessary to use ridds on opponents: who can be bluffed, against whom which line playing of the hand will be more profitable, etc.

I think that the optimal tactics and strategy of the game, when the player sees the cards of others, will be very different from the strategy of playing in a regular tournament.

P.S. It would be cool to watch a show like this on TV, where a player plays a tournament against the rest, seeing their cards. Maybe such a show would be very interesting )))

BelFish · Dec 13, 2022

But then in such a show there will be a completely different game, because all players will know that he sees their cards and, accordingly, will start playing differently, reducing the chances of the seeing player to win. Perhaps such a game would be even more interesting than i think

There can used different "levels of thinking", all sorts of bluffs and moves...

G0930 · Dec 13, 2022

BelFish said:
Any exercise in calculations is good for the brain. And this is also a rather interesting question, - it is not necessary that this give only benefit for game, there may be pleasure from a beautiful solution to a problem...

In addition, one could try to use such information in a bet where bets are made on the victory of famous players such as Negreanu or Ivey in some tournaments.

He likes to do the math as well

But as mentioned before ,soo many variables to take into account.
I guess it would be possible to calculate your personal odds .
If you have enough stats about your gameplay...
Nethertheless, luck is always a big variable and to be honest I lack the skill in math to make a certain calculation. But good luck with that !

wavetune · Dec 13, 2022

BelFish said:
I also think that in addition to different frequencies for combinations of cards on different streets, a lot also depends on the chosen strategy and tactics of such a player who sees the cards of the rest.

It's not enough to just take and shove when you have the nuts, but you have to try to get as much value out of each hand as possible.

That is, skill is also very important here, and it is necessary to use ridds on opponents: who can be bluffed, against whom which line playing of the hand will be more profitable, etc.

I think that the optimal tactics and strategy of the game, when the player sees the cards of others, will be very different from the strategy of playing in a regular tournament.

P.S. It would be cool to watch a show like this on TV, where a player plays a tournament against the rest, seeing their cards. Maybe such a show would be very interesting )))

I'm not in the truest sense of the word, that when you need to push the nuts, of course, if you have the nuts, the opponent sees that his combination can lose to a stronger one, which in theory can be in the hands of the opponent, this is not the best tactic, I agree, but I I would rule out calling all-in when preflop, that's definitely not suitable and I think it makes no sense, for example, with A A, call all-in when the opponent has, say, some Q 9

wavetune · Dec 13, 2022

I think that when playing "blindly" against someone who sees your cards, there are always chances, but here is another question, if one has an advantage over the other, then the prize money should not be divided 50/50 .. it would be interesting to watch of course

wavetune · Dec 13, 2022

and I’ll tell you another story, I probably already told it on the forum 7 times, but I’ll tell you again, I think they won’t be offended by me ...

I played cash and I have 6 6, my opponent has a pair higher, on the turn I went all in and when the cards were opened, it turned out that I had even less than 4%, because one of the two sixes can bring the opponent a flush, and miraculously, the 6 that I need came on the River, after such a shock, he began to write all sorts of nonsense in the chat and wrote that he sees my cards, I grinned, at the next hand I received 10 2, he wrote in the general chat - you have 10 2 ... then he left the table without playing, then I just started playing about the screenshot, contacting the support service, etc. d. I do not think

P.S.I understand that this story is similar to the ravings of a madman,

but it really happened to me, about 8 years ago

Gallarado777 · Dec 13, 2022

I think it's very difficult on theories, you need to test this technique in practice and then you will know the exact information, the rest can only be our thoughts about theories I think if a professional player plays with us he can win from 10 games to 3 my thoughts

What are the maximum odds of winning the tournament?

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