ur kiddin right? Calling there is awful. Lemme see sng wiz. Sng wiz that you should fold. Calling all in there is a -ev spot there.
Ur saying only a nit will fold there. I'm saying all decent sng players will fold there.
firstly you should treat SNG wizard as a calculator, you shouldnt agree with it all the time, there are situations where you forget about it and go with a negative edge, usually either due to you being extremely shortstacked, or having a huge stack shoving into guys on the bubble. you shouldnt even say, that, oh i shove in these spots cos sng wiz told me too. sometimes you will have a tournament, and you look in wiz and see all ticks. well. fine. but if you really look through that tourney and review it properly, there are always leaks, and sometimes, since the moddelling is really bad, you may have made a few bad shoves here and there..
I call without hesitation or remorse even if he shows AK or better. Play for the win. His range is huge and your not much of a dog to many of his legitimate holdings. If this were a satellite paying only the top 2 I might (probably would) fold, but in a normal structured tournament the difference in payouts between 1st and 2nd usually warrants the more aggressive play. The fact that he's seen you fold to his shove 3 times already makes a call with a hand as strong as KQ manditory and simple. Sorry, but only a nit folds here.
i agree with the mindset that playing for the win is correct, here we only have one way to win the pot. but your correct in what your saying..
if you look through your finish distribution, you should have more 1st and 3rd places than seconds, and you should be bubbling a lot too.. if your playing correctly
so a really good long term distribution should look something like
13/11/12/12 something similar to that would be really good.
OK, then why raise at at all? Why not just sit out until the short stack busts or gets back into the hunt? Both situations are equally unappealing. If he doubles up a couple of times you may find yourself battling for 3rd rather than 2nd and wish you had taken your chances earlier with what was in all likelyhood the best hand. If he busts out then your heads up against a more aggressive opponent who has you massively outchipped.
ok, now if he makes a standard raise in this spot, im probably shoving. but here, he shoves. and whilst i agree with the ideal of going for first place, here is a spot where i really dont think were ahead enough to make a call..
ok so we have a read that he is loose. is he loose enough to shove in 8 2 off here? with the reads given, id say a range of 50/60% here would be toward the high end.
so against a range of 50%
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.767% 54.20% 01.56% 541104810 15606130.00 { KcQs }
Hand 1: 44.233% 42.67% 01.56% 425956162 15606130.00 { 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 98o }
so were basically flipping, now taking ICM considerations in, there is a shortstack present, and he will more than likely bust soon.. so money wise, its better to lay this down.
another thing we need to take into account is that were fairly deep still. there arnt any antes in FT games, so we have a lot more hands to see before the tourneys out, and im sure, we can find a better spot than flipping with KQ.
so again i agree with your idea of playing loose to try to get to first, you can take that too far sometimes, and i think, this is one of those spots.
now, if were like 10bb's here, i snap call. so you cant just assume that im a nit, because i feel its correct to fold in this specific situation.
im sure i cannot and willl not change your mind on this matter, but thats all i have to say really, gl at the tables.
PS ran a
