Wanna bounce something off the TAG players.

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byrnsiey330

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I've been reading Harrignton on Hold 'Em for tournaments, so I've been playing a lot tighter, and have had some success. But as I go through my hand histories and check my equity on pre-flop calls, running it through pokerstove I come across hands like this:

9-Handed Table

Antes: 12
Blinds: 60/120

I'm BB with Ac7c

A player in middle position (known to be tight) raises 540 BB.
The button (a very loose player) calls 540.
SB folds to me.

From what I have read in HoH this is a definite throw away. But when I assign ranges to these players and plug them in, this should have been a call.
I'll show my work and tell me if I'm wrong.

MP Hand Range: TT+, AJs+, AQo+, KQo+, KJs+, JTs+. (That's a tight hand range, which should actually decrease my equity.)

Button (very loose): 22+, Ax, K9s+, KTs+, QT+, 67s+.

My equity against these hands is 26%, and I'm getting 4 to 1 odds to call:
340 into 1368 (4.02). So isn't this a close but right call?

I folded, the flop came out 3d, 6s, 4c.

MP raised 3/4 the pot and button folded 22.

Even though I would have folded assuming he had two overcards or a higher pair, I don't want to be result oriented.

Is my thinking flawed or was a call before the flop profitable long run?

It seems too loose but the number tell me that it's the right call.
 
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WiZZiM

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those numbers are flawed, it only shows you what would happen if all three of you are all in.

you are not all in here, you still have to play postflop.

read up on "reverse implied odds" not sure if it's in the book or not, it should be. if not, google it. But basically, we have to play without the lead, in a huge pot, with a hand that can be easily dominated by a tight players opening range and we're playing out of position throughout the entire hand. it's a recipe for losing stacks.
 
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Scrover

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Wizzim is correct. The only real reason you can play this hand is for the nut flush and even if you do make it, your opponent needs some overpair or big hand to go bonanza and give his chips. The button though has a bigger chance of giving his chips to you because with any pocket pair, if they do flop a set and we catch a flush on let's say the turn, then we can stack him off. Same result if we get into the flush over flush situation or the two pair over flush situation.
 
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WiZZiM

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^^ all scenarios happen very infrequently. Most of the time we check/fold away an extra 300odd chips for no reason.
 
ScubaSurf

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I'm a TAG so I'll pony up here.

What are the effective stacks? SPR?

In most cases, we're already dominated with Axs in the BB. Quite possibly our Ace is already dead to MP, and the only reason to proceed would be to make the nut flush, but if we are lucky enough to do so, is the villian going to pay us off?

This is an easy muck for me.
 
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byrnsiey330

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those numbers are flawed, it only shows you what would happen if all three of you are all in.

you are not all in here, you still have to play postflop.

read up on "reverse implied odds" not sure if it's in the book or not, it should be. if not, google it. But basically, we have to play without the lead, in a huge pot, with a hand that can be easily dominated by a tight players opening range and we're playing out of position throughout the entire hand. it's a recipe for losing stacks.

Okay thanks, I definitely thought I was messing up somewhere along the line. Thanks guys. Means a lot
 
Arjonius

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Okay thanks, I definitely thought I was messing up somewhere along the line. Thanks guys. Means a lot
It won't change the math a lot, but you also seem not to have considered that BB could / would have 3bet part of the range you've assigned to him. For instance, is it equally likely that he called with AA and Ax? Your simple equity calculation assumes it is.
 
Jacki Burkhart

Jacki Burkhart

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It's already been mentioned, but I'll just re-iterate that those range and equity calculators only tell us about the preflop all in race equity of each range.

There is always post flop playability to consider.

problem #1 you have a hand that is easily dominated

problem #2 you will be out of position throughout the hand

lets say the flop comes :7d4: :5c4: :4h4:

now, you might think you have a playable hand with TPTK and a backdoor club draw. You could end up bleeding chips to a set, a straight or 88+

Also a problem is if it comes :ad4: :5c4: :4h4: because now you might be charmed into believing your ace is good, plus your backdoor club draw.

In your particular situation if I was going to play Ax suited, I would prefer those than can also make a wheel like :ac4: :4c4:. They're just easier to play because when I hit my ace, I KNOW my kicker is never good; so I'm not tempted to pay off a better ace. And there are more ways to flop a strong draw, or make a well disguised straight.

Problem with Ax suited is that everybody can see the texture when your flush hits...so the implied odds aren't as high as we think. Implied odds are generally higher with straights.

If you put the opener on a strong range, then if he has an Ace it will beat yours, or if you flop an Ace and he doesn't have one (a hand like QQ,KK) then the ace will kill your action.
 
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