Is waiting for bubble to pop the right move, or scared poker?

Bob23bk

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Just looking to get a little insight on this one... Here's the scenario:

You're super short stacked in a tourney (<5BB) but only a couple players are left before you get ITM. Table folds to C/O, who 3 bets. Button/SB fold, you're in BB with AA. The obvious first reaction is to shove, you're getting great pot odds here and couldn't have a better hand! The problem is, even if villain is bluffing he can't fold now...

I'm waiting for everyone to point and laugh; I folded AA :eek: Villain shows KK. He wasn't bluffing afterall, but we were 4:1 favorite. Did I make the right move? I'd imagine the debate going like this: Pro says it was the right move because 2 hands later I was ITM. Con says I'm an idiot for folding such a hand and am obviously guilty of playing scared poker. I'd love to hear more input for pro and/or con here, if I had all the answers I wouldn't be posting! It is not my intention to give loaded questions, only to prove/disprove my reasoning.

My goal in the tourney is to profit obviously, so shouldn't I wait for a couple bigger stacked players to end up AA vs KK and let them regret it? I'd like to think that this conservative approach is even more valid if you're overplaying your bankroll (IE: in a tourney you shouldn't be in) :confused:
 
jh1spartanfan

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I think you would have a better chance of making the bubble by playing a hand like pocket Aces and winning than waiting for other players to knock each other out. Also, by playing that conservative you're basically eliminating yourself from making it any farther than just bubbling.
 
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This is only the correct play in a satellite. In any non-satellite MTT, you shove.

-HooDooKoo
 
Zorba

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Play to win, do not play to min cash.

.
 
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pain_pain_go_away

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Like has already been said, the only time you should really be folding here is if this is a satellite & even at that, only if you believe the bubble will burst before you are blinded out....
But, I sense what you are saying at the end of your post, is that you can't comfortably afford to lose the buy-in (I'm sure you don't need me to tell you, perhaps you shouldn't be playing this level in the 1st place).
In this case the fold here is understandable, but in the long run this is a -ev (less profitable) decision as the min cash is generally not much more than the initial buy in whereas if you double or triple up here, you can give yourself a chance of running deep & making some real profit!
 
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depending on the value of the tournament but the prizes for most Mtt are at the bottom only just above the buy in. The only time to consider folding AA is when on the bubble and when 2 or more players are in - . If you can't bring yourself to play AA at this stage when only one opposition when will you?
 
veltins

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in an mtt folding AA when on bubble is a simple no no.. in sattelite however is can be folded depends upon bubble Situation. in mtt you gonna go for the top whrethe Money is.. minicash is rubbish
 
EvertonGirl

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When I first started to play on PS every time I had KK I would hit a set and lose to a straight, so my thought process on the bubble was folding KK so I could min-cash (yuck)

My thought process is different now, I don't think I always lose a set anymore and I would never fold AA, KK, QQ or AK on the bubble, this is where you should be stealing the blinds as a lot of people will tighten up with the thought process I will play after the bubble pops. Get your money in good and in the long run you will be ITM. I would rather be the bubble girl rather than folding my way to a min-cash.
 
2Pacavelli

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IMO, bearing in mind that you are playing with bankroll management, I think it's easy all in, because in tournaments can not be play to reach '' itm '' have to play to win
 
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Only wait for bubble if the min cash is large and/or you have a lot of time invested in tournament. I had a bad habit of playing for bubble in small buy in tournaments but then I realized what is the point of just trying to get a $1. You're playing to final table so why fold strong hands.

I have been watching Jason Somerville on Twitch recently and his comments about cash percentage really changed my thinking on tournament play. He is successful yet considers cashing in 20% of tournaments exceptional and 15% acceptable. My playing for bubble cash may have let me have a better cash percentage but I was losing out on the opportunity for big money by playing weak.
 
arabarran666

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I have been watching Jason Somerville on Twitch recently and his comments about cash percentage really changed my thinking on tournament play. He is successful yet considers cashing in 20% of tournaments exceptional and 15% acceptable. My playing for bubble cash may have let me have a better cash percentage but I was losing out on the opportunity for big money by playing weak.
Yep, i also adopted this strategy. I bust more on the bubble, but now i found myself more and more going deep in to the tournament.
 
Bob23bk

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Appreciate all the feedback here, though it seems everyone is on the same side. Can we get anyone on the other side to chime in? :)
 
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pain_pain_go_away

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Appreciate all the feedback here, though it seems everyone is on the same side. Can we get anyone on the other side to chime in? :)
Sorry Bob, but I don't think your going to get many people on the other side of this particular fence as CardsChat is full of very good players who would never fold AA pre flop, especially on the bubble, as this is a prime time to be picking up chips with an eye on running deep and hopefully taking down the MTT...
I personally can understand your predicament, in that you are probably playing above your comfort level, but this is no excuse for, as you said- "playing scared".
 
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Bubble stage is precisely when you should play as aggro as you can. Raise often, don't ever limp, steal and re-steal. And if you are short-stack then wait till its folded around to you and push all your chips with any two. Anyway you are going to get called with any two as well because of pot odds. Having top pair when shortstack is one more reason to push not to fold :)
 
solargarlic

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I am by no means a pro in fact quite the opposite but I have played many hands. Although you did something that made the money definite it was the wrong play in my book. I play to win not to place and I think if you play with that mentality you will win more overall. If you had KK I could see the fold more but AA I would have to say against one player I will take that race. Hope that helps Good Luck!
 
rock0001

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in a satellite it might be a good move if there are other players with even less stack than yours and only 1 or 2 players left to be ITM. however in my opinion you cant fold aces in that spot even if your near the bubble. i mean even a hand like AK or AQ is a shove situation with less than 5bb. You should always have to play a tournament to win not to be itm otherwise it will not be profitable for you over the long run. the reason is simple. only the final table tend to make a good profit so even if you lose 10 times in a row on the bubble reaching one final table will make you win more money than cashing 10 times the lowest prize.
 
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I could even consider folding QQ+ on the SB with a big stack on the dealer and a big stack on BB. I've seen more than once two big stacks calling a super short stack shove (specially when dealing against two minimally smart players) and checking all three streets just to narrow out your pot equity.

On the SB with a player isolated on the dealer, no brainer. Shove because AA is one of the very few holdings that could give you a shot at a real prize.
 
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When you considering you're probably tripling up here (SB + original raiser chips), you definitely have to call. After the bubble you can then have a chance to decent in that tournament.
 
limpnfold88

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It all depends on your personal situation really. If you really need to cash, then you should play to cash not to win. But then again if you really need to cash, you probably shouldn't be playing in the tournament anyways. If you're playing properly with your roll, you shouldn't be afraid to bubble and try to expoit it instead, because a lot of other people will be playing to cash when you are playing to win the tournament.
 
Bob23bk

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Sorry Bob, but I don't think your going to get many people on the other side of this particular fence as CardsChat is full of very good players who would never fold AA pre flop

It's ok, if I wanted an easy answer I'd find it in this forum of a million+ posts... The obvious answer is blatant, I was hoping for some exceptional insight. Can I take the opportunity to point out that the forum is full of very good players who will probably never win a bracelet? The insight gained from the 1 in a million player here could be the difference; Vegas was built on a fraction of a percent ;)

only the final table tend to make a good profit so even if you lose 10 times in a row on the bubble reaching one final table will make you win more money than cashing 10 times the lowest prize.

A different way of looking at it, (aside from the bankroll abuse point) I love this insight.

On the SB with a player isolated on the dealer, no brainer. Shove because AA is one of the very few holdings that could give you a shot at a real prize.

Did you read the post? You're in BB :rolleyes:

When you considering you're probably tripling up here (SB + original raiser chips), you definitely have to call.

You have <5 BB, let's say 4 for this example: C/O 3 bets, SB folds, you're in BB. If you call, you're getting 4 BB from Villain, 1/2 BB from SB, and 4 BB from yourself, plus antes if applicable. Far from tripling up, but I see your point.

It all depends on your personal situation really. If you really need to cash, then you should play to cash not to win. But then again if you really need to cash, you probably shouldn't be playing in the tournament anyways. If you're playing properly with your roll, you shouldn't be afraid to bubble and try to expoit it instead, because a lot of other people will be playing to cash when you are playing to win the tournament.

This was my point exactly, we should 'never' be playing scared poker but there comes a point where abusing your roll can make the 'wrong' decision the right one in certain situations.

I appreciate everyone's feedback, but I'm looking for the unpopular opinion here. If you have nothing to add (besides 'everyone else was right') please don't post in my thread to boost your count :)
 
ern11

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This is only the correct play in a satellite. In any non-satellite MTT, you shove.

-HooDooKoo

I agree with that. If you folds AA, with what hands you will play? Joker+Joker?
 
dino

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play it, don't wait it
if you wait to min cash, that's about it you will have min cash mind set
if you play to win, then you will develop winner mind set and play your position
 
dexon303

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No it's absolutely wrong to fold AA, because while sure, you have a better chance to cash, you greatly reduce your chance of actually winning. And in tournaments, the money is mostly all at the top. I don't mind bubbling at all. Players who are terrified of bubbling usually miss a ton of good spots to accumulate chips near the bubble. They have a far lower chance of actually winning tournaments than the players who take advantage of the bubble to build up a stack (or go home with nothing). You don't profit at poker by min-cashing tournaments; you profit by winning. If I bubble, I'm not delighted, but I know that it means I wasn't playing scared-tight and therefore unprofitably.
 
topper39

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If you're playing beyond your limits (f.e. you qualified via satellite to a big one), so that mincash is extremely valuable for you, I can imagine folding AA in such scenario could be justified. But generally you should never turn down spots like this in tourneys. Play to win.
 
BentleyBoy

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Bob. The answer is really down to you and what you are happy with. While everyone will give you their perspective, you have to be happy with your decision. To assist, consider these as some of the i acting factors within your decision making.

Can you afford to lose your buy in? If you are managing your bankroll correctly, then the answer should be yes. If the answer is yes, then shove. If the answer is No, then you should consider whether you should be playing this tourney at this buy in! The other question within this is, what are your chances of beating the bubble? You will have observed how slow things get towards the bubble, I played a game last night where the bubble being at 108th place, took over an hour to get from 120 to 108. ( I was in top 50 so wasn't too fussed about the bubble at that stage) but once the bubble went by, we got to 80th in about 5 minutes.). Can you survive the time it takes to beat the bubble? Will you regret folding AA when you don't even get anywhere near the bubble? Also, is it a 'every position post bubble gets the same prize', or is it weighted to the final table?

The other question is one of a mind set. Why do you play poker? Is it to make 'some' money or is it to make some significant money (relative to your buy ins)? That's where your decision about cashing or winning comes in and affects your decision to fold AA?

Folding AA can be the right decision, but only in limited circumstances in my opinion, as proffered by many in the above posts.

Whatever you decide, you have to comfortable with that decision..... Especially on the basis that AA is only a winner pre flop..... Once the flop lands, you are in the lap of the gods.

My approach would be, if you think you will regret the fold: play.
 
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