villains range

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kanselau

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Live torney day2 35 runners left
Reads on villain (casino regular)- not much previous history , have played in a tornament with villain before and seemed to fold to 3bets quite often. I Assume that villain has respect for us , as we have cashed on a few occasions at the local casino and also done well at the aussie millions where he participated.
In this particular tornament , villain started the day short stacked (11BB) , dubbled up quite early where he min bet from CO with QQ.
Was playing quite tight overall but managed to build his stack to around 37BB.
We started the day with 60BB but lost a few pots and were down to 35 BB.
Blinds are 1000/2000 with 200 antie
Vilain opens from UTG + 2 for 5000 , we find AA in UTG +3 and raise to 1500, villain tanks for a minute and calls
Flop comes out Q K10 rainbow , villain checks , we decide to controll the pot size incase villain floped a set of Q K 10 and to aveluate on the turn.
Turn comes 9 rainbow , villain tanks again and anouces all in ?
What can we put villain on and should we call. ?
 
MediaBLITZ

MediaBLITZ

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There's still a whole lot you can still put him on - the real problem is that board pretty much hits most of it. His range easily hits two pair, a set, and of course that straight staring at you (AJs, JJ??)
Have to put some serious doubt into that being a bluff - if he's smart at all - since that board also hits you square between the eyes - he should easily have KK, QQ, TT, as well as AA, in YOUR range. BUT you checking the flop with him could easily induce that bluff - depends on what you htink he knows about you. If he thinks you slow play a set he's probably not going to shove there. If he thinks you play ABC and would at least c-bet a flop with a set, well then....
He could still have AJ and have hit the flop and checked to trap.
There is just TOO MUCH he could have that crushes you and it's coming down to what you know about him and what he knows about you. Do you think AK or AQ will play out this way for him? Because thats almost all you can beat right now.
If I'm not tilting and playing smart I probably have to fold - but the variables that decide this are just not stated in this particular problem. Mainly - what does he know about you that he thinks he could bluff here?
 
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kanselau

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There's still a whole lot you can still put him on - the real problem is that board pretty much hits most of it. His range easily hits two pair, a set, and of course that straight staring at you (AJs, JJ??)
Have to put some serious doubt into that being a bluff - if he's smart at all - since that board also hits you square between the eyes - he should easily have KK, QQ, TT, as well as AA, in YOUR range. BUT you checking the flop with him could easily induce that bluff - depends on what you htink he knows about you. If he thinks you slow play a set he's probably not going to shove there. If he thinks you play ABC and would at least c-bet a flop with a set, well then....
He could still have AJ and have hit the flop and checked to trap.
There is just TOO MUCH he could have that crushes you and it's coming down to what you know about him and what he knows about you. Do you think AK or AQ will play out this way for him? Because thats almost all you can beat right now.
If I'm not tilting and playing smart I probably have to fold - but the variables that decide this are just not stated in this particular problem. Mainly - what does he know about you that he thinks he could bluff here?
Very good analisis mate, I totaly agree there is alot in his range that hits this board (especially for the fact that he seems to fold lite to 3bets ).
I just put this range in stove (KK-77,AJs+,KQs,AQo+,KQo) and acording to this , we have 50.557% equity in this spot. So it is a close one.
If my calculations on his range are correct, are you going for it at this stage of the tornament and with these stack sizes. ?
like mentioned before not much info on this guy , I think he would rather play a solid game , but could mix it up as well . Dont think hes typical ABC sort of guy, prob capable to check a set or AK on the flop.
 
MediaBLITZ

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It's too close to call for me - I know I have been in this situation before and there is no pattern to what I would do - I've called and been a hero and a goat - I've folded and mostly just had to wonder as either ended up blinding out or going on to victory.

Like I said it really rests with determining what he thinks about me - is his shove meant to push me out or does he have the nuts and figure I have seconds?

The biggest difference I can come up with is I would have definitely C-bet the flop - could do another $15k as a "please call". That would make it easier to decide the turn ;) His turn shove could very well be AQ and he took your check as an invitation to take it from you. Bet the flop and if he shoves on that you can fold.
 
catchitfool

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i think im calling i put villian on ak. what did he have?
 
TheKid84

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I couldn't see how this is a call... First thing that pops is to my head was 'know when to hold em, know when to fold em'.

As for the way it was played out, I'm not sure how much differently I would have played that than you. Great starting cards in the pocket, but ugliest flop for A's. I just think it's a case of the flop screwing you a bit.

Seeing how this is a live game, I would have tried to get some info outta him prior to folding. Talking him up, anything in hopes he reveals some info on it. All in all, I'm more than likely going to fold in that situation though.
 
MediaBLITZ

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I couldn't see how this is a call...

It becomes a call because of the check/check on the flop - villain can easily interpret this as an under pair and justifiably go for a grab with nothing but repping some paint (but of course he does not have nothing - but can he beat AA).
 
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we made our decision with this hand once we 3bet preflop. we have no decision to make postflop even though we're likely getting the worst of it. we 3bet nearly half our stack theres like a pot sized shove left only. his range probably hits this board, but again, it's also kind of irrelevant.
 
MediaBLITZ

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we made our decision with this hand once we 3bet preflop. we have no decision to make postflop even though we're likely getting the worst of it. we 3bet nearly half our stack theres like a pot sized shove left only. his range probably hits this board, but again, it's also kind of irrelevant.

The way I am reading it (and this could be wrong as I am doing some assuming) -

Hero has $70k to start hand (approx) and 3-bet pre to $15k (a little more than 20% of stack) - leaving $55k stack or approx 22 BB leaving a little wiggle room to bail out on.

But if you are right on your calc then yes, I agree - no turning back.
 
jsconny

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I would snap call villian because u have too much money invested and he made the price right to call... Its probably going to be a race...
 
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we made our decision with this hand once we 3bet preflop. we have no decision to make postflop even though we're likely getting the worst of it. we 3bet nearly half our stack theres like a pot sized shove left only. his range probably hits this board, but again, it's also kind of irrelevant.
not correct we have 70k and 3bet 15k
 
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kanselau

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The way I am reading it (and this could be wrong as I am doing some assuming) -

Hero has $70k to start hand (approx) and 3-bet pre to $15k (a little more than 20% of stack) - leaving $55k stack or approx 22 BB leaving a little wiggle room to bail out on.

But if you are right on your calc then yes, I agree - no turning back.
this is correct we can still get away with just over 20BB
 
duggs

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bet flop
as played snap fold. the amount of time he has worse when he shoves 2x pot is practically 0%. if he were bluffing he would bet/fold like 1/4 pot since this is such a redic SPR due to our sizing, 3bet a bit smaller imo.

based on your assumptions on him, that he is decent, your sizing and assumed image. his 3bet calling range is like 1010-QQ AK AQ maybe AJs KQs and probably even less at that sizing. KK+ gets it in pre. hands that lead that turn include 1010 JJ QQ and thats all. if AK/AQ/AJ choose to bet, they dont 2x pot it v our range. our range is JJ/QQ/KK/AA/AK/AQ we can never have the nuts here but he can stack us with 10x. i think this is a snap snap fold baring extra information
 
MediaBLITZ

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I think duggs is right based on what we know.
 
atlantafalcons0

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Vilain opens from UTG + 2 for 5000 , we find AA in UTG +3 and raise to 1500,
So how much did you raise?
Just wondering because preflop before the villian raised there would be around 5000 in the pot already. If he made it 5000 to play, your raise of 15000(?) would give the guy great pot odds to call (10000 more for him to win 25000) with all sorts of hands. This flop hits lots of hands in his range and it's pretty obvious that you're behind when he shoves.
I'd fold.
 
MediaBLITZ

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preflop before the villian raised there would be around 5000 in the pot already. If he made it 5000 to play, your raise of 15000(?) would give the guy great pot odds to call (10000 more for him to win 25000) with all sorts of hands.

Excellent point
 
Lucothefish

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So how much did you raise?
Just wondering because preflop before the villian raised there would be around 5000 in the pot already. If he made it 5000 to play, your raise of 15000(?) would give the guy great pot odds to call (10000 more for him to win 25000) with all sorts of hands. This flop hits lots of hands in his range and it's pretty obvious that you're behind when he shoves.
I'd fold.

Firstly, it's 10,000 into (33,000 + antes), not 10,000 into 25,000

Second, are you suggesting he 3bet bigger? I think 3x is fine here.
 
MediaBLITZ

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Firstly, it's 10,000 into (33,000 + antes), not 10,000 into 25,000

Second, are you suggesting he 3bet bigger? I think 3x is fine here.


1 x BB = $2000
1 x SB = $1000
9 x Ant = $1800
1 x Raise = $5000
1 x 3bet = $15000

Do the math

Not that the 3bet should be bigger but it makes the call more understandable and we can maybe widen his range a bit
 
atlantafalcons0

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Firstly, it's 10,000 into (33,000 + antes), not 10,000 into 25,000

Second, are you suggesting he 3bet bigger? I think 3x is fine here.

1 x BB = $2000
1 x SB = $1000
9 x Ant = $1800
1 x Raise = $5000
1 x 3bet = $15000

Do the math

Not that the 3bet should be bigger but it makes the call more understandable and we can maybe widen his range a bit
This ^
Thanks for clearing that up for me.
:D
 
JohnBoyWWFC

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Are you not taking stack sizes into account Atlanta? He can't flat with a super wide range for that much of his stack.
 
Lucothefish

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You both forgot to add the 10k that he calls
 
atlantafalcons0

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Are you not taking stack sizes into account Atlanta? He can't flat with a super wide range for that much of his stack.
Not a super wide range but maybe some suited connectors.
Villian started with around 74000?
Looking to call now with 67000 and it costs 10000.
Villian knows if he hits we're going to pay anyway...
He'd have 57000 chips after the flop and that's like 28.5 BB's.
Still comfortable.
Idk if you can see my reasoning.

You both forgot to add the 10k that he calls
So for the villian after we raise you're saying the pot odds are???
 
Matt Vaughan

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Should bet the flop imo. We're still ahead of villain's range, and that's like the most coordinated non-flush board ever. We're getting the money in good against hands like KJs and QJ, and we're never drawing dead even if behind.

When you check the flop you have to snap-fold the turn. Basically his whole range that wasn't already there on the flop got there. The only hands I can think of that you beat are 1 pair with an ace, and those likely go all in preflop, and definitely don't shove on that turn, plus there are fewer combos since we have 2 aces in our hand. So as played snap-fold.
 
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