Originally Posted by MediaBLITZ
There's still a whole lot you can still put him on - the real problem is that board pretty much hits most of it. His range easily hits two pair, a set, and of course that straight staring at you (AJs, JJ??)
Have to put some serious doubt into that being a bluff - if he's smart at all - since that board also hits you square between the eyes - he should easily have KK, QQ, TT, as well as AA, in YOUR range. BUT you checking the flop with him could easily induce that bluff - depends on what you htink he knows about you. If he thinks you slow play a set he's probably not going to shove there. If he thinks you play ABC and would at least c-bet a flop with a set, well then....
He could still have AJ and have hit the flop and checked to trap.
There is just TOO MUCH he could have that crushes you and it's coming down to what you know about him and what he knows about you. Do you think AK or AQ will play out this way for him? Because thats almost all you can beat right now.
If I'm not tilting and playing smart I probably have to fold - but the variables that decide this are just not stated in this particular problem. Mainly - what does he know about you that he thinks he could bluff here?
Very good analisis mate, I totaly agree there is alot in his range that hits this board (especially for the fact that he seems to fold lite to 3bets ).
I just put this range in stove (KK-77,AJs+,KQs,AQo+,KQo) and acording to this , we have 50.557% equity in this spot. So it is a close one.
If my calculations on his range are correct, are you going for it at this stage of the tornament and with these stack sizes. ?
like mentioned before not much info on this guy , I think he would rather play a solid game , but could mix it up as well . Dont think hes typical ABC sort of guy, prob capable to check a set or AK on the flop.