Variance question for live MTT Poker?

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PSloces

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Hi guys,

1st post here, but am seeking out some advice from anyone that has been through this. I play a lot of poker (mostly live) in L.A and tend to play low stakes MTT's between the $60- $150 range at the Bike, Commerce, and with some home game groups.

My question is in regards to low stakes live MTT variance? How long can you downswing? How does the common "20 min blind structure" effect your variance? That kind of thing. By the late stages of these half day tournaments I've noticed the average stack is only 15-30BB's deep.

I am by no means a pro, make a living doing something else, but I have managed to maintain a pretty steady bank roll with a decent cash and win rate playing a LAG/TAG style (player dependent) tournament approach for the live games here. I'm a big student of the game and am constantly studying and looking to improve. Would love to supplement my income at some point building a big enough bank roll to get into live cash and bigger tourneys.

My question is how do you guys deal with the late swings of these MTT's (especially live) when you just can't catch a break? I'm literally on the worst down swing I've ever had, haven't cashed in like 6 weeks which is awful for me. This week I bubbled two final tables in a 70-100 person field and am just at the ropes end. I don't play scared at the bubble stage and I'm not letting myself blind off. I'm playing to win, not just get in the money. I will attack antes and blinds, not scared to shove my stack, or 3 bet loose players. I'm not getting it in bad either, just seem to be running horribly. Loosing monster coin flips AK vs JJ etc between big stacks, or getting flushed out ex.. runner runner, when I finally win a flip it's too little to late after loosing a big one, that kind of thing. Dominating hands not holding up.

Today I came into the final 18 big stacked and ran AK twice into 88's and 7-5 off suit which killed 3/4 of my stack, then got 3 bet by 2 super NIT's raising AQ twice, which I correctly folded to AA's and KK's (showed). By 10th I was gonna get blinded out at the next level so shoved 67suited with 10 bigs late position, called by AQ off flopped 2pair and guy caught his flush by the river. Boom another tourney done.

Looking for people to share how they've weathered their runs?? What I can do to improve, maybe areas I might be overlooking, that sort of thing. Read the books, "the mental game" etc.... Not tilting during, just feel awful after. I'm starting to get really scared that this run will keep on longer and longer, not sure I can really keep it up. It's starting to affect my daily routine/sleep lol:( . Thoughts?
 
yeezus

yeezus

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All i can say is to inject logic during your bad runs. As long as you are making the right play your results will come. Also i would suggest reading 2 books by Jared Tendler called The Mental game of poker 1 and 2. These are excellent books that deal with the psychology side of poker. His books have helped me so much del with variance and tilt. Another note from what i see you are making correct plays just stick with your game and tweak when necessary. Good luck at the tables and keep grind you will get there. Pm me if you have a nook account i will lend you those two books if you like.
 
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PSloces

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Thanks Yeezus,

Yeah I have "The Mental Game", probably time for another read through. I'm loving this forum, reading through the posts I see so much positivity and productive feedback it makes me feel good about the Poker community. Again thanks for the response. Cheers!
 
Sil3ntness

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Yeah I agree with Yeezus. There's nothing you can really do about the downswings and bad beats. Just keep making the right decisions and you should come out positive over the long run. Unless you have some serious RUN BADs. :D
 
Karozi615

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Dude, variance sucks but its going to happen. I play about 3-5 live tournaments a week between the 70-250 range and I have dealt with the same exact thing.

My past week looked something like this

AK vs KQ (KQ sucks out on bubble, would have been in 2nd place)

JJ vs 99 (this one really sucked, 208,000 chip pot when the entirety of chips in play is 420,000). I BUBBLED this one as well because he binked a 9.

I also played a 50$ turbo on tuesday morning with I believe 3 tables. 3 spots paid. Got into the final 3 as chip leader, shoved the SB with A7 (maybe 15 bigs?) and got snapped by an equal stack who had KJ, he binks). mind you the third player was 4-6 BB short but I was playing to win.)


I calculated the ICM value of the JJ vs 99 pot and it was 612.71. I had an 82.5% chance of winning the hand. First place was 1k. I walk with nothing.

Live poker certainly can be painful at times, the lack of volume means short term negative variance stings MUCH MUCH more. If it is really bad, take a break. That's what I do sometimes.
 
Sil3ntness

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Dude, variance sucks but its going to happen. I play about 3-5 live tournaments a week between the 70-250 range and I have dealt with the same exact thing.

My past week looked something like this

AK vs KQ (KQ sucks out on bubble, would have been in 2nd place)

JJ vs 99 (this one really sucked, 208,000 chip pot when the entirety of chips in play is 420,000). I BUBBLED this one as well because he binked a 9.

I also played a 50$ turbo on tuesday morning with I believe 3 tables. 3 spots paid. Got into the final 3 as chip leader, shoved the SB with A7 (maybe 15 bigs?) and got snapped by an equal stack who had KJ, he binks). mind you the third player was 4-6 BB short but I was playing to win.)


I calculated the ICM value of the JJ vs 99 pot and it was 612.71. I had an 82.5% chance of winning the hand. First place was 1k. I walk with nothing.

Live poker certainly can be painful at times, the lack of volume means short term negative variance stings MUCH MUCH more. If it is really bad, take a break. That's what I do sometimes.

Snap called for 15 BBs with KJ :( Where can I sign up for these tournaments :D

Unless he/she thought you were constantly bulling/LAG player.
 
Karozi615

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Pretty much ^ we were 3 handed and it was at a little card room in NH. Very weak passive play. The only reason I got a call was because I was pretty much opening 100% of buttons and I thought that it would get through. And in retrospect open shoving 15 big blinds is pretty bad, even 3 handed when everyone is super shallow.

I generally have purpose though. Although it seems unusual, these types of weak/passives like to flat and then go with a pair.

by shoving I was able to accomplish a few goals

1. Get better hands to fold.

2. Get worse hands to call (This is the reason why i'm cool with it, the fact that I did use my table image to get a call from worse, even if the spot is marginal)

3. Maximize my fold equity AND prevent the BB from blasting off with a PERFECT stack for a 3bet shove. If I open for 3x and villain snap shoves for 15 big blinds I start feeling pretty sick and probably just fold, because level 1 players in low stakes live tournaments don't really understand hand ranges for shoving so i'm likely drawing to 3 outs.
 
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