Variance question for live MTT Poker?
1st post here, but am seeking out some advice from anyone that has been through this. I play a lot of poker (mostly live) in L.A and tend to play low stakes MTT's between the $60- $150 range at the Bike, Commerce, and with some home game groups.
My question is in regards to low stakes live MTT variance? How long can you downswing? How does the common "20 min blind structure" effect your variance? That kind of thing. By the late stages of these half day tournaments I've noticed the average stack is only 15-30BB's deep.
I am by no means a pro, make a living doing something else, but I have managed to maintain a pretty steady bank roll with a decent cash and win rate playing a LAG/TAG style (player dependent) tournament approach for the live games here. I'm a big student of the game and am constantly studying and looking to improve. Would love to supplement my income at some point building a big enough bank roll to get into live cash and bigger tourneys.
My question is how do you guys deal with the late swings of these MTT's (especially live) when you just can't catch a break? I'm literally on the worst down swing I've ever had, haven't cashed in like 6 weeks which is awful for me. This week I bubbled two final tables in a 70-100 person field and am just at the ropes end. I don't play scared at the bubble stage and I'm not letting myself blind off. I'm playing to win, not just get in the money. I will attack antes and blinds, not scared to shove my stack, or 3 bet loose players. I'm not getting it in bad either, just seem to be running horribly. Loosing monster coin flips AK vs JJ etc between big stacks, or getting flushed out ex.. runner runner, when I finally win a flip it's too little to late after loosing a big one, that kind of thing. Dominating hands not holding up.
Today I came into the final 18 big stacked and ran AK twice into 88's and 7-5 off suit which killed 3/4 of my stack, then got 3 bet by 2 super NIT's raising AQ twice, which I correctly folded to AA's and KK's (showed). By 10th I was gonna get blinded out at the next level so shoved 67suited with 10 bigs late position, called by AQ off flopped 2pair and guy caught his flush by the river. Boom another tourney done.
Looking for people to share how they've weathered their runs?? What I can do to improve, maybe areas I might be overlooking, that sort of thing. Read the books, "the mental game" etc.... Not tilting during, just feel awful after. I'm starting to get really scared that this run will keep on longer and longer, not sure I can really keep it up. It's starting to affect my daily routine/sleep lol . Thoughts?