variance at single table SNGs

I have decided to stop playing cash games and focus more on single table sit n goes. what is the variance like at these games? I started off doing good but i have gone through a lot of streaks. I have placed in like 5 out of 6 then i will go on a losing streak of like 5 or 6 in a row. Does anybody have any idea of what a good winning percentage of these games is?

You should be getting ITM about 40% of the time. But variance is crazy in these. 30 buyins downswing are the norm. You can even go on 3k game breakeven streches. If you were a winning cash game player I'd stick to that if you don't like variance. But if you stick to SNGs think long term.

huh. I stopped playing cash games because i didnt like the variance. Im prolly just not as good a player as i think I am

Ah variance! The random nature of the game means that we are playing with probabilities, not certainties. We can play perfect poker and lose a game - crap poker and win. In the long term the chance element will even out and what makes the difference between winning money and losing it is skill. As far as how many games it takes for chance to be overtaken by skill you need to think in terms of hundreds, some say thousands.

Here's how I like to think about variance. Suppose we do a coin tossing exercise but have some skill in tossing it that means we can get a head 60% of the time and when we get a head we win some money. Over 1000 tosses we will expect to get about 600 heads and 400 tails (if we get 580 or 620 heads it's no big deal). If we look at the results of our exercise we will see that there are steaks - we can expect to get five tails in a row or seven tails out of ten tosses, equally a load of heads in a row is quite normal. In the long run we are winning this game but it is perfectly feasible to still be losing it after 100 goes.

thunder1276 said:

huh. I stopped playing cash games because i didnt like the variance. Im prolly just not as good a player as i think I am

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There is a hell of a lot more variene in SnG's than in cash games as far as I'm aware.

cardplayer52 said:

You should be getting ITM about 40% of the time. But variance is crazy in these. 30 buyins downswing are the norm. You can even go on 3k game breakeven streches. If you were a winning cash game player I'd stick to that if you don't like variance. But if you stick to SNGs think long term.

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Single tables? 30buy-in down swing, are you serious?

I think I'd quit if I played 30 STT's and didn't even cash in one. How is that even possible? Maybe up to 10 but that's about it. I mean I used to play SnG45/90/180 and would cash on average 25% of the time and there's is a hell of a lot more variance in those! I think the most I've gone in MTT SnG's without cashing is around 7, hell I can't imagine STT's being worse?

thunder1276 said:

huh. I stopped playing cash games because i didnt like the variance. Im prolly just not as good a player as i think I am

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To be honest, hearing someone say this impresses me. People normally think they are better than they are, and to take this approach - which is probably true, no slight intended, I am probably not as good as I think I am, and I think I am competent at best - is a major step toward being as good as you want to be. You wont fix something if you dont believe it is broke. The first thing I would say is if you speak in terms of 5-6 games, than you need to understand knowing how good you play must be over a sample of 10s of thousands of hands, and perhaps that is not enough. SnG and cash games are so different that if you think you can just switch you probably need to read some of the basic strategy articles here and elsewhere on these formats. You should find a format you like and read about it, learn it, do whatever you can to know all you can about that format. There is a successful cash player here who left SnGs cause he hated the variance. I dont play cash so I cant comment on the variance there, but as stated here, variance in STT and MTT can be huge, so you may want to just stay in cash and try to find out why you are not doing as well as you want. Post some HH and start there.

ramdeebam said:

Single tables? 30buy-in down swing, are you serious?

I think I'd quit if I played 30 STT's and didn't even cash in one. How is that even possible? Maybe up to 10 but that's about it. I mean I used to play SnG45/90/180 and would cash on average 25% of the time and there's is a hell of a lot more variance in those! I think the most I've gone in MTT SnG's without cashing is around 7, hell I can't imagine STT's being worse?

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A 30 buyin downswing doesn't mean in a row. over the coarse of 100 games dropping 30 buyins is pretty common if you play alot of these. I know a pro who just now is getting over a 6k game BE stretch.