Just thought some of the newer members would like some info on variance. If you think you are not winning enough this makes for some interesting reading.
Let’s begin by understanding what the word variance
means in poker:
1) The statistical distribution of results over a period of time.
2) Fluctuation in bankroll or cash flow.
With this understanding set in our mind, we can start to talk about it.
Let’s see what variance can cause in poker. Poker variance may be negative as well positive over time and will have immediate impact on our bankroll. Talking about the positive variance, it is easier to assimilate because the results are positive, your bankroll will be increasing considerably and you will be going through happy days.
However, when dealing with the negative variance it is more serious. What was once all fine and dandy seems to turn into something very dark. Your bankroll decreases day after day, your game doesn’t appear to be flowing well, and the world seems to be against you.
People who do not understand about variance’s role in poker will think that their poor results are a product of a conspiracy by the poker rooms to rig the cards against them. But here is some good news that might make you review your understanding of variance.
Regular, winning players at Multi Table Tournaments (here we consider those who regularly play at least 20 days in a month so we can have a good sample of tournaments) have on average winning days only 30% of the time. That’s right, you did not misread what I wrote. Players have more losing days than winning days.
So, considering that you play 20 days in a month, you will win on average only on 6 days and will have 14 days of losses. This is absolutely normal!
I have prepared a chart to illustrate the subject of variance in poker. This is for a player with 52% ROI:
winning and losing days = variance in poker
If you are experiencing negative variance here are some tips to get through this black period:
1) Stay focused on the game. Turn the TV off and find a quiet place to play.
2) Try to take a few days to study. Today there is a lot of free advice and help available for poker players on the Internet.
3) If you continue to have negative results, do not be ashamed to play lower buy-in tournaments .
4) Do not let a bad play or a bad beat in a tournament influence the continuity of the game or even in another tournament that you are playing at the same time.
5) If you find that you are in TILT mode, stop playing that day to preserve your bankroll, and return to the game the next day.
6) Poker tournaments should be treated as marathons and not as 100 meter races.
This info was taken from the Titan Poker