Value of suited connectors in "Kill Phil" overestimated ?

Fahrenheit451

Fahrenheit451

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Hi, everyone !

I am a beginner and last few months playing freeroll tournaments using strategy described in KP.
All works well in late stages (where you shold push AI preflop or fold) except one thing - suited connectors.
It seems to me that their value are overestimated in KP chart.

Chart is:
1) AA, KK
2) AK, QQ
3) JJ-99
4) AQs, 88-66
5) AQo, AJs, ATs
6) KQs-54s (suited connectors)
7) AJo, ATo, KQo
8) 55-22, A9s-A2s, A9o-A7o, KJ, KTs
9, 10) every other nice looking shit

In these few months I can count on fingers of one hand the cases when I win a hand pushing preflop with SC. I don't do it anymore because I fear that I'll loose again.
And another thing.
When I push with pairs like AA, KK, etc other folks sometimes call and sometimes not, but when I do this with 67s or like, they seem to telephatically feel my fear and almost allways call (and win).

WTF ?

I have two theories:
1) KB authors overestimated SC
2) My attitude created my reality

What do you think :confused:
 
topper39

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I think SCs have their real value in deep stacked games (cg, early phase of MTTs). The shallower the stack sizes are the less value these hands have.
On the other hand, I wouldn't underestimate them. SCs are good for stealing and squeezing when stacks are not so deep, or even short (as they have solid value against most of the other hands in case you get called) but it's very important to pick up right spots.
 
T0mmmi

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hi man !

After reading the above, I would have one easy recommendation for you

>>> Just do not play them (SC) if you are loosing too much :) !!!

>>> if you are taking poker at least little serious , then everything is about profitability >>> play only what is profitable and what is not >> Don' t !

Regarding those two theories >>> not sure there is right answer as ..you might just have had really bad luck or you are not making right decision when playing Suited Connectors

Anyway Good Luck @TAbles !
 
loafes

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A lot of beginners massively over value suited connectors and having no idea how to play them is a huge leak among beginners and fish.

Firstly the suited connectedness of these hands adds very little to it in the way of actual equity to showdown. With this in mind it shouldn't be hard to realise it's not the sort of hand that should be played in shallow stack situations (for example most phases of tournaments!).

The actual value to suited connectors is that they play well post flop such as in cash games, in tournaments you get very little post flop play. Mostly they have value because they give you spots where you can profitably semi bluff. If you're playing micro stakes and free rolls then you can't bluff anyway so why play hands that are designed for it. You say you're a tournament player, but here's the thing. Tournaments are basically all shallow stacks apart from the very beginning. Stop playing suited connectors all together and you should increase your roi.


Secondly most micro stakes players don't understand how to play them even in deep stack situations such as cash games. Position is key! They shouldn't be played out of position, also a lot of players get into tricky spots when they flop a pair. When playing suited connectors you're really trying to flop a big draw/combo draw to a flush/straight where you have equity and can use it to generate profitable plays.


Honestly even in the early parts of tournaments people still over value these hands. My advice op would be to stop playing these hands all together, it'll save you money in the long run. Maybe one day when you're a crusher and understand a lot about the nuances of the game, but since you're a tournament player you aren't going to hurt your win rate by never playing these hands.
 
Fahrenheit451

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O.K. tnx, I'll restrict usage of SC in my short stacked play.
It'll be modified Kill Phil system ;)
 
Arjonius

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Have you considered that Kill Phil may not be completely appropriate to your circumstances? The Phil in the title refers to opponents whose games are far above yours. Do you see a lot of these in your freerolls?
 
theRaven68

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Sadly, it seems that SCs have their real value only against me and not for me
 
Jacki Burkhart

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I would actually agree with that chart. But as usual it is situation dependent.

First and foremost as somebody already mentioned, the Kill Phil strategy is for those situations when you feel like you are outclassed at the table. That is the first criteria. Now, if we are challenging ourselves and moving up the limits over time...we will all sometimes be at a table where we feel outclassed, this is not necessarily a disaster as long as you have a plan.

Next, we are talking about AIPF situations. We're never calling an all in with less than premium cards (or tiny effective stacks). So we will be the pusher.

It is crucial that you understand fold equity to be profitable at pushing suited connectors. The less FE you have, the stronger (bigger) you want your 2 cards to be.

Now...FE is more than just your stack size....it will often be directly linked to your stack size but there are other things to consider too. If a player raises 20% of his stack from UTG vs a player raising 20% of his stack from the Cutoff and you jam for 4x his initial raise...in which case do you think you have more fold equity? I'd guess the latter but it depends on player range, tourney stage etc.

so...you should rarely jam suited connectors without good fold equity. (compared with a medium strong hand like 99 or AQ which you will sometimes push with no fold equity, or sometimes even call for your tourney life)

Think about it like this: It is hard to have less than 25-30% equity in a preflop race situation. Then you add your fold equity, add the cost of the blinds and antes and pushing with suited connectors is often a +EV shove at certain stack sizes. So you've got fold equity on your side, but when they do call, you're totally live. You're usually getting called by AK/AQ etc and you've got 40%. Not terrible once you consider the dead money, and remember THEY CALLED YOU!

So, in short, there is value if your stack is big enough to make the person fold.
 
Samango

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I would actually agree with that chart. But as usual it is situation dependent.

First and foremost as somebody already mentioned, the Kill Phil strategy is for those situations when you feel like you are outclassed at the table. That is the first criteria. Now, if we are challenging ourselves and moving up the limits over time...we will all sometimes be at a table where we feel outclassed, this is not necessarily a disaster as long as you have a plan.

Next, we are talking about AIPF situations. We're never calling an all in with less than premium cards (or tiny effective stacks). So we will be the pusher.

It is crucial that you understand fold equity to be profitable at pushing suited connectors. The less FE you have, the stronger (bigger) you want your 2 cards to be.

Now...FE is more than just your stack size....it will often be directly linked to your stack size but there are other things to consider too. If a player raises 20% of his stack from UTG vs a player raising 20% of his stack from the Cutoff and you jam for 4x his initial raise...in which case do you think you have more fold equity? I'd guess the latter but it depends on player range, tourney stage etc.

so...you should rarely jam suited connectors without good fold equity. (compared with a medium strong hand like 99 or AQ which you will sometimes push with no fold equity, or sometimes even call for your tourney life)

Think about it like this: It is hard to have less than 25-30% equity in a preflop race situation. Then you add your fold equity, add the cost of the blinds and antes and pushing with suited connectors is often a +EV shove at certain stack sizes. So you've got fold equity on your side, but when they do call, you're totally live. You're usually getting called by AK/AQ etc and you've got 40%. Not terrible once you consider the dead money, and remember THEY CALLED YOU!

So, in short, there is value if your stack is big enough to make the person fold.

Great reply by missjacki, I would just add that the bolded part is very important here. that if if you get called you still have live cards.
This is why they are ranked higher than group seven (AJo, ATo, KQo), which when called by AK/AQ are completely dominated.
 
Fahrenheit451

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So, in short, there is value if your stack is big enough to make the person fold.

So I understand, that SC have small chance of making a straight or flush, but if fold equity is big then it ads to these chances and can make pushing profitable.

In early stage of tourney when stacks are big, I don't push even with AA, I try to play smallball instead.

In late stage if blinds are comparable with my stack, I push with anything that looks like decent cards (and of course SC).

That leaves only one case when I should consider pushing SC profitably - if in late stage I am bigstack bully or nit.

Please correct me, if I am wrong !
 
Arjonius

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Please correct me, if I am wrong !
You seem to be suffering from info overload. The Kill Phil style is basically about playing relatively few pots but big ones in MTTs where you're at a skill disadvantage.

Small ball is about playing small pots but more of them, and using your skill advantage to make up for playing a wider and thus weaker range.

So does it seem to make a lot of sense to try to blend these two styles? I'm not saying it's impossible, but frankly, it's highly unlikely that someone who is at the freeroll level understands poker and these styles well enough to do so effectively. Learn to crawl faster than the other babies before you think about trying to run.
 
Fahrenheit451

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You seem to be suffering from info overload. The Kill Phil style is basically about playing relatively few pots but big ones in MTTs where you're at a skill disadvantage.

Small ball is about playing small pots but more of them, and using your skill advantage to make up for playing a wider and thus weaker range.

So does it seem to make a lot of sense to try to blend these two styles?

KP recommends to do nothing in early stage. Why not use this time learning smallball ? I'm not risking anything cause I bet small, only that second stage can come a little bit earlier in I'm unlucky. When my stack goes below ~ 15BB I switch to push/fold mode
I'm not saying it's impossible, but frankly, it's highly unlikely that someone who is at the freeroll level understands poker and these styles well enough to do so effectively. Learn to crawl faster than the other babies before you think about trying to run.

And your recomendation is ?
Play SC or throw them away ?
Or maybe go to high buyin tournaments where I'm at big skill disadvantage and try KP strategy ?
 
suit2please

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Your playing freerolls and might be overthinking everything. Trying to combine two completely different strategies in a freeroll seems a bit much.

As for AIPF situations in freerolls, Id say just toss them. Unless your stack is really small and like half the table is all in in front of you.

Playing 'small ball' with pocket Aces early in a freeroll seems pointless, shove, get called, either win or lose and move on.
 
L

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When I push with pairs like AA, KK, etc other folks sometimes call and sometimes not, but when I do this with 67s or like, they seem to telephatically feel my fear and almost allways call (and win).

The problem playing free rolls is that you must take into account those who play any two cards and identifies them as soon as possible. This avoids a number of problems.
 
Arjonius

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KP recommends to do nothing in early stage. Why not use this time learning smallball ? I'm not risking anything cause I bet small, only that second stage can come a little bit earlier in I'm unlucky. When my stack goes below ~ 15BB I switch to push/fold mode
You're making my point about info overload. By trying to learn and use a lot at once, you're missing some important parts. Like the fact that smallball is better suited to deep stack poker. Being early in a tournament doesn't mean the stacks are deep.

For instance, the wsop ME has 30k starting stacks (300bb) and 2-hour levels (roughly equivalent to 1 hour online). In the ME, if you still have exactly 30k at the end of day 1 (5 levels, so 10 hours), you have 75bb.

In your freerolls, if you begin with say 1500 and 10/20 blinds, you only have 75bb right off the bat. Obviously, starting with 300bb fits the smallball style much better than starting with 75bb. And the balance tips even more because your freeroll structure increases a lot faster. If you have exactly the starting stack at the end of 5 hours (roughly equivalent to 10 hours live), you likely have only a small fraction of 1bb, not 75bb.

In addition, even with deep, slow structures, smallball is more than seeing cheap flops and playing flop or drop. You have to outplay people once in a while. This is easier to do when they are reasonably capable of folding. How well does this describe your freeroll opponents?

A related part of smallball's foundation is having an advantage in post-flop skill. You use that and position to make up for playing modest cards. Again, how well does this apply to you in your games?

And your recomendation is ?
Play SC or throw them away ?
Or maybe go to high buyin tournaments where I'm at big skill disadvantage and try KP strategy ?
My recommendation is not to think in a binary manner; i.e. always or never play SC. It's situational. So how good or bad it is to play them varies.

It's obviously not a great idea to buy directly into MTTs where you're out-classed. But you can satellite in or sometimes get a free ticket to play. When you're outclassed, your best shot is to play fewer pots but bigger ones. So NP applying KP principles in these situations.

But, these situations aren't normal. Have you demonstrated that you can play solid enough poker to produce decent results in your usual games at your current level, freerolls? If not, then you should work on that first before thinking about KP, smallball, etc. Think of it as laying the foundation upon which you'll build your game - after the foundation is laid and has set.
 
T

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This is just my opinion,but I feel suited connectors are for people who want to play bust out or win poker.These are cracking hands good for busting big pairs .The only problem is people get a big pair they will usually put in a good pre-flop raise followed by a strong post-flop raise so you have to call the preflop and hope your flop hits or comes close and be willing to gamble if on a flush or straight draw,this may seem like donk play, but you have to remember the top three get the majority of the money in a tourney.
 
Jacki Burkhart

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...It's obviously not a great idea to buy directly into MTTs where you're out-classed. But you can satellite in or sometimes get a free ticket to play. When you're outclassed, your best shot is to play fewer pots but bigger ones. So NP applying KP principles in these situations.

Your post was spot on, but the part I quoted I'd just like to point out that even when you're buying into a tourney appropriate for your skill level, sometimes you just get a really tough table draw. That is when Kill Phil is a good strategy. I find myself reverting to some kill Phil tactics at the start if day 2s when most the fish have busted. I'll get up early get coffee, study my table draw and research the players. If I have a good stack and a table of unknowns it's business as usual. If I have a smallish to avg. Stack and a table draw of tough players I'll revert to kill Phil for a while until I feel them out.

Last fall I played a $500 event that I have played in and cashed in many times, very comfortable with my status among the field at large. But I got a horrendous day 1 table draw and was playing with 3 players from the top 10 all time money leaders from that series and about 3 other tough players. I reverted to kill Phil until I chipped up and outlasted most if the best players. When it was down to just one known expert who was on my right, I opened back up my game to my normal game. I ended up bubbling in the event but I outlasted 5 of the 6 players who I deemed "better than me"
 
Fahrenheit451

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Thanks everyone for your time answering my beginners questions, especially missjacki and Arjonius !

As for info overload, I think it's inevitable when newbie tries to tackle such task as learning Holdem.
One way would be to get personal trainer, but that's not for me. This forum is my personal trainer and I think I should post more stupid questions ;)

Regarding skill levels, I see that every level plays different poker - what works for freerolls doesn't work for micro stakes and vice versa.
Therefore it's impossible to build solid foundation from beginning and gradually add to this moving up in levels.
Going up next level you should relearn to some extent what you have learned.

If money wasn't an issue maybe it would be better to start from micro stake or small stake level.
I tried it, bet when I gradually lost my initial bankroll I decided to start again from zero with freerolls and move up when I have gathered 100 buyins for 1eur MTT's. I have gathered eur 30 now and learned a lot doing this.
Currently I feel that freerolls become boring but as I am getting ITM more frequently now I hope next level isn't far ;)
 
Jacki Burkhart

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Regarding skill levels, I see that every level plays different poker - what works for freerolls doesn't work for micro stakes and vice versa.
Therefore it's impossible to build solid foundation from beginning and gradually add to this moving up in levels.
Going up next level you should relearn to some extent what you have learned.

If money wasn't an issue maybe it would be better to start from micro stake or small stake level.
I tried it, bet when I gradually lost my initial bankroll I decided to start again from zero with freerolls and move up when I have gathered 100 buyins for 1eur MTT's. I have gathered eur 30 now and learned a lot doing this.
Currently I feel that freerolls become boring but as I am getting ITM more frequently now I hope next level isn't far ;)

well, it's true that there isn't 1 winning style or strategy that you can apply to all forms of poker at all levels...however the closest substitute would be TAG (Tight Aggressive) most books and experts recommend a TAG strategy for beginners. not because TAG is the best strategy for all situations but because TAG will give you a reasonable chance at winning while you're learning the nuances of the game. TAG is, IMO the ideal foundation to build your game upon...and like foundations they are kinda boring in themselves but serve a higher purpose to support everything interesting and complex that will come afterwards.

as to bankroll management...100 buy ins is what you'll often hear recommended for MTTs. HOWEVER, you can to make an exception for the lowest stakes because you have to start somewhere. I think that at $30 you can definitely play the cheapest 9 man SnGs (or DONs) (probably $1). since 30% of the field is paid and you only have to outlast 6 other players to make something, I think that grinding SnGs and playing MTT freerolls is a good strategy until you get your 100 buy ins. Also, once you start to beat STTs you can move up to 45 man SnGs which is still lower variance than MTTs.
 
Arjonius

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well, it's true that there isn't 1 winning style or strategy that you can apply to all forms of poker at all levels...however the closest substitute would be TAG (Tight Aggressive) most books and experts recommend a TAG strategy for beginners. not because TAG is the best strategy for all situations but because TAG will give you a reasonable chance at winning while you're learning the nuances of the game. TAG is, IMO the ideal foundation to build your game upon...and like foundations they are kinda boring in themselves but serve a higher purpose to support everything interesting and complex that will come afterwards.
Well put. To expand on this somewhat, learning to play TAG isn't the best strategy for new players because it lets you win sooner than if you try to adopt a style that requires building a larger skill set. For instance, by playing a smaller and thus stronger range of starting hands, you won't face as many marginal decisions, which is a good thing when your overall poker ability isn't yet sufficient to be better than average at making them.

as to bankroll management...100 buy ins is what you'll often hear recommended for MTTs. HOWEVER, you can to make an exception for the lowest stakes because you have to start somewhere. I think that at $30 you can definitely play the cheapest 9 man SnGs (or DONs) (probably $1). since 30% of the field is paid and you only have to outlast 6 other players to make something, I think that grinding SnGs and playing MTT freerolls is a good strategy until you get your 100 buy ins. Also, once you start to beat STTs you can move up to 45 man SnGs which is still lower variance than MTTs.
You'll see quite a bit of advice about having X buyins. Much of it is just people repeating what they believe, but without actually putting a whole lot of thought into it. So, it's not always fully applicable.

For instance, take the guideline of 100 BI for MTTs. Not only does this ignore what missjacki said about starting somewhere with a tiny BR, there's more.

Keep in mind that if you're a losing player, no size of BR will keep you from going broke; it will just take longer. And if you are going to lose your entire BR, which is worse - losing your current $30 or taking the time to build it up to $100 before losing it all?

Or from a different angle, if you're destined to drop $100 before you become a BE player, what does it matter if you lose $30, then $35, then another $35 rather than $100? Or for that matter, what difference does it make if you lose $2 50 times?

Fwiw you might want to check out how Chris Ferguson treated his BR when it was very small during his BR challenges.

There's also the matter of field size. Let's say you've become good enough to be a BE or slightly better than BE MTT player. If for example, you play mainly 18-man games, the probability you'll lose 100 BI due to variance is nearly the same as the chance you'll lose 50. And both are pretty low. So do you really need 100 rather than 50? Otoh, if you usually play in huge fields, you might want more than 100 BI.
 
Fahrenheit451

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I am very surprised to hear from both of you that TA is a winning strategy.

I think it is a good principle or (how to say) ideal poker utopia - raise high when you got good cards ! It'll work if every hand would end with a showdown.

It don't work in practice.
1) ring games
if you wait 1 - 2 hours to get your good cards everyone knows you're a a nit and when you get them - everyone just fold. What you got is SB + BB + something - not enough to survive.
2) tournaments
all the same + when blinds raise you just are eaten by them before you get your good cards
 
suit2please

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It don't work in practice.
1) ring games
if you wait 1 - 2 hours to get your good cards everyone knows you're a a nit and when you get them - everyone just fold. What you got is SB + BB + something - not enough to survive.
2) tournaments
all the same + when blinds raise you just are eaten by them before you get your good cards

Not sure what you think a Tight Aggressive style is. It is not wait for AA or KK only and raise ridiculously. TAG is the style of play the majority of players will tell a beginner to start with. By playing a smaller range of better starting hands and betting or raising preflop, you'll generally make your post flop decisions easier.
 
Fahrenheit451

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Not sure what you think a Tight Aggressive style is. It is not wait for AA or KK only and raise ridiculously. TAG is the style of play the majority of players will tell a beginner to start with. By playing a smaller range of better starting hands and betting or raising preflop, you'll generally make your post flop decisions easier.

Do you play TA ?
 
suit2please

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Do you play TA ?

Pretty much. Of course now that Im stuck on merge sites the only real traffic is in turbos, hypers, and DoNs, since I play SnGs, all of which require somewhat different styles of play.

There is no "One" winning way to play. People tell you to start with TAG because its simple and somewhat effective. If you play too tight itll be as you've already suggested, but being tight doesn't mean you have to be a NIT.

* And since it would seem your only playing freerolls generally everyones going to be playing a lot looser, so should play tight. A big generality would be when at a tight table loosen up and at a loose table tighten up. Its all about who your playing against.
 
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magicius

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What arjonius said ! Every post! I love connectors( suited or not doesnt matter much,even 1 gappers..) but i preffer to play them in cash games... In tourney its okay first level.. Or later call with em and if u hit something nice cool

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