This is a discussion on TURBO HU SNG VS MTT's Variance within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Poker section; Hi all.
My first post!
Ive been a SNG player for a few years now. I have worked out that my ROI is about 5% over a
In the most common SNG (9-man), if you had evenly matched players, you could expect to win 1/3rd of the time.
I see that you reference HU. In that case, if you're making money, you're winning more than 1/2 of the time.
In the MTT you describe, let's say there's 80 evenly matched players each time. And you said the top 8 usually get payed. So now you can expect to only win 1/10th of the time.
So let's just stop there and calculate how often you might expect a drought, say, playing six tournaments of each type without placing in the money.
SNG: (2/3)^6 -- 2 out of 3 times, you don't cash. Now multiply that 6 times
You get 9%. So only 9% of the time would you lose six games in a row. Not too often.
HU SNG: (1/2)^6 - only about half the time, you don't cash. Now multiply that 6 times
You get 1.5%. It's like flipping a coin and having it land heads 6 times in a row. Not common.
MTT: (9/10)^6 - 9 out of 10 times, you don't cash. Now multiply that 6 times.
You get 53%! More often than not!
When you win in an MTT, you win bigger (typically), so it makes up for the longer droughts, but in general MTTs have more variance.
Join Date: Feb 2019
Originally Posted by anfieldkid
My first post!
Oh, I forgot to say... welcome to the boards!
Join Date: Oct 2019
re: Poker & TURBO HU SNG VS MTT's Variance
Thanks for the response!
Okay I get the concept of cashing say 1 or 2 times for every 10 tournaments. I think 20% is considered a good ratio.
I also understand the concept of the HU SNG of maybe winning 5 out of 10.
Obviously you can win more in tournaments then in STT HU.
So lets say for example:
STT: 25dollar buyin HU games over 4 years:
Buyins amount approx to $1million , my ROI is 5% so that is approx 50k dollars. 15k dollars per annum.
MTT: Using the same example lets say my buyins amounted to also $1million over a 4year period. Assuming Im a winning player/above avg player what can my expected ROI be?
I mean I am just feeling that Im spending so much time playing these things and for such a low ROI over a 4yr period I feel my time could be spent in MTT's?
What your thoughts?
Thanks for your time.
Join Date: Nov 2017
Welcome, I find I cash in almost 1/2 the MTT's I play. Players aren't generally as good, and there's more time for a patient player. Back in the working Sharkscope days, my ROI was always 3-4 times higher in MTT's than SNG's.