This is a discussion on TURBO HU SNG VS MTT's Variance within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Poker section; Hi all.
My first post!
Ive been a SNG player for a few years now. I have worked out that my ROI is about 5% over a
In the most common SNG (9-man), if you had evenly matched players, you could expect to win 1/3rd of the time.
I see that you reference HU. In that case, if you're making money, you're winning more than 1/2 of the time.
In the MTT you describe, let's say there's 80 evenly matched players each time. And you said the top 8 usually get payed. So now you can expect to only win 1/10th of the time.
So let's just stop there and calculate how often you might expect a drought, say, playing six tournaments of each type without placing in the money.
SNG: (2/3)^6 -- 2 out of 3 times, you don't cash. Now multiply that 6 times
You get 9%. So only 9% of the time would you lose six games in a row. Not too often.
HU SNG: (1/2)^6 - only about half the time, you don't cash. Now multiply that 6 times
You get 1.5%. It's like flipping a coin and having it land heads 6 times in a row. Not common.
MTT: (9/10)^6 - 9 out of 10 times, you don't cash. Now multiply that 6 times.
You get 53%! More often than not!
When you win in an MTT, you win bigger (typically), so it makes up for the longer droughts, but in general MTTs have more variance.
Welcome, I find I cash in almost 1/2 the MTT's I play. Players aren't generally as good, and there's more time for a patient player. Back in the working Sharkscope days, my ROI was always 3-4 times higher in MTT's than SNG's.