Trying to improve my hand ranging skills and math

kennyh

kennyh

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I have a specific example, but I've been working to improve my opponent hand ranging. Specifically doing the math quickly on the spot.

Example:
$50 $85k gtd. On Bovada
10k starting stack
Hero on Button has 9300, villain UTG has 14500
(History: I had folded to a check raise in roughly the same position 9 hands earlier.)

Blinds 75-150,
Villain raises to 330
Folds to hero who raises to 962 hold QhQd
Villain calls
Flop: Js, 8s, 8s
Villain checks
Hero bets 1096
Villain raises to 3440

Do I shove or fold?
After doing some brief math against his 3 bet calling range I figure I am against 19 hands that dominate me, 30ish that I dominate and a lot of semi bluffs that I am ahead of that should not call a fold.
I figure that against this whole range I'm over a 50% favorite, plus the fold equity of shoving. So I did. Is this math and line of thinking about right?
 
horizon12

horizon12

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You have position, so we can only call and fold in turn if villain shove....Here no 4bet because stack still deep.. If villain shove in turn, this means most of the time we will be behind, villain will have trips or KK AA , not many players can shove turn with hand like AJ or bet again without position. Villain range can be suited connectors like 89 78 or .J8s T8s because stack still deep and villain can call with this hands your 3bet..

After fold in turn, you will have still good stack and you can continue the game.
 
Last edited:
kennyh

kennyh

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OK thanks for the feedback. I guess I was slightly discounting AA or KK due to his just calling preflop, I had figured he may reraise those preflop. Calling the flop bet would leave me with ~5k, so I was thinking shove or fold were my 2 options. But with blinds so relatively low it would have still left me plenty of chips, so call and assess the turn is better than shove?

My concern was AKs or some other draw getting there on the turn and charging them to get there. But a call allows for me to bluff later on if a scare card does come, right?
 
kennyh

kennyh

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I guess villains range is far more monster heavy, whereas my line from the button could very easily be a steal attempt or top pair/straight draw/flush draw type hand.

I don't play nearly as much cash game or super deep stacks. I assumed that he could be making a move w/ suited connectors or smaller pocket pair. When ranging to figure my odds, do I just basically eliminate Jx, 10s, 99, 9-10, etc. due to his position and the strength implied by UTG raise? If that's the case than I'm totally crushed by his range.

After thinking about it, calling his raise then shoving on the turn (assuming he checks) probably looks way stronger than just shoving the flop and might have induced more folds.
 
B

biggb

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Hi mate, I think also tht a call nrings you more options.
You are deep and you don´t know, what he will do on the TURN.
After considering that, on the Turn you will more likely been asked SHOVe or FOLD.
Here absolute CALL to see, why he is doing that.
At least you cn build up your stack in the later stage of the poker game ;)

Bye,

b
 
DonSifu

DonSifu

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i think a shove there is an ok move; one could argue that just flatting the raise is also a good move, but with a flush draw and a paired board, I think shoving and putting maximum pressure on your opponent is the best play in the long run.
 
TheCol

TheCol

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I really would push there with QQ. More than likely he has a AJ. I really dont think he would reraise if he flopped the boat. He probably would just call and see if your going to feed the pot more on the turn card. But maybe he has A8 and just got lucky on the flop. But I think the correct move would probably shove. But now if your close to the money then I might fold there.
 
H

hffjd2000

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I would prefer folding here on the spot.

His raise and check raise are too strong for me. If he indeed bluffs us, then reward him the pot for such a brave bluff.
 
D

Dick_Huff

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Two 8's of spades? Somethings fishy here.
 
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