This is a discussion on Tough decision on the river within the online poker forums, in the Tournament Poker section; partypoker - 600/1200 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 8 players
MP: 44.41 BB (VPIP: 17.02, PFR: 12.43, 3Bet Preflop: 4.29, Hands: 188)
MP+1: 35.98 BB (VPIP:
I agree that it's hard to put villain on AA there. I tend to fold over pairs in situations like that. If I get called on a double barrel, then I'm generally folding to a big river bet unless I know that the villain is very aggressive. I've just lost too much in the past with over pairs to the board that I am a lot more cautious with them now.
Interesting hand, thanks for sharing it! think the call on the river is fine, you’re getting good odds by that point and if you weren’t going to call that predictable size on the river then probably you should’ve been out of the hand a bit earlier.
Instead of focusing on the river call, I’d like to bring up betting out on the flop and turn, which I would tend not to do. The trouble with doing so is that you’re narrowing your opponent’s range by betting out when he had the betting lead. Because he held the betting lead going into the flop, it’s very likely that he’ll decide to c-bet if you check to him. He will almost certainly c-bet with many more hands than he will call your bet with, so instead of keeping hands in that you’re ahead of, there will be fewer of them left in his range.
The same is true of the turn lead. If we’d check/called the flop, then we could continue to keep his range pretty open by check/calling this turn. (And in the event he checked back on the turn, at that point our hand would be underrepped and I’d suggest leading out at the river.) In any case, checking to villain on the flop (and the turn assuming our opponent c-bets) would accomplish what we most want here: to keep our opponent’s range as open as possible, so that we are beating the greatest percent of his range. Hope this helps
I think Katie nailed this one already post flop but no one else has mentioned pre flop yet. Why are we only set mining in a 3 way pot OOP with TT? Do we have no 3 bet range? This would be a good 3 bet / fold in my opinion. We lose much less unless he flats the AA behind and we double barrel. At that point if he bets river I think it's much easier to find a fold which puts us back to about the same chip investment. But this line does some things that I think are more valuable. Collect nice pots from hands like Ax and 99-, lose less vs monster hands like QQ+ when they 4 bet, perform about the same against passively played QQ+ that bet river for value (if we can find the fold).
I think Katie nailed this one already post flop but no one else has mentioned pre flop yet. Why are we only set mining in a 3 way pot OOP with TT? Do we have no 3 bet range? This would be a good 3 bet / fold in my opinion.
Thanks and you make good points—my personal default would be to 3-bet/fold this as well at this stack depth.