Tough Decision Process – What Do You Do?

I’m in a live $130 buy in event with 20 minutes levels and $15K starting stacks. We’re 5 levels in and I have already doubled up with AA over KK; I have about $35K, all other stacks at the table are $18K or less.

Blinds are $150/$300 with no ante.

UTG limps in for $300 and two other early to middle position players limp as well. From the button I find

I raise to $2000 (4.5x with >60BB + 2 limps and round up), only the last limper calls – everyone else folds.

Pot: $5,050

Flop:

The villain checks to me and I wager $2600; he calls.

Pot: $10,250

Turn:

The villain checks to me and I check as well. Now I don’t really like this check here, but I am trying to keep the pot manageable.

Pot: $10,250

River:

The villain moves all-in for $8600.

What do you do?

ssbn743 said:

I’m in a live $130 buy in event with 20 minutes levels and $15K starting stacks. We’re 5 levels in and I have already doubled up with AA over KK; I have about $35K, all other stacks at the table are $18K or less.

Blinds are $150/$300 with no ante.

UTG limps in for $300 and two other early to middle position players limp as well. From the button I find

I raise to $2000 (4.5x with >60BB + 2 limps and round up), only the last limper calls – everyone else folds.

Pot: $5,050

Flop:

The villain checks to me and I wager $2600; he calls.

Pot: $10,250

Turn:

The villain checks to me and I check as well. Now I don’t really like this check here, but I am trying to keep the pot manageable.

Pot: $10,250

River:

The villain moves all-in for $8600.

What do you do?

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Insta-fold.

-HooDooKoo

ssbn743 said:

What do you do?

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Ask ourselves > "What do we beat?"

Poker Orifice said:

Ask ourselves > "What do we beat?"

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Right – and that’s exactly what I did. So without telling you my decision or the outcome let’s run through it:

I have a flush – forth nuts as it turns out. That means there are three cards that beat me and he only needs one ah4: ).

With consideration to the hand, he only third limped from MP, so his range is pretty large. However, he is a very passive player that has already limped, check/call, check/called QQ twice and lost each time.

He checked the flop, and we know novice players love to check top pair – in which case we beat 2/3 of the kings he can have - but he doesn’t shove a king or kings up here anyway. The same goes for all other ranges he could have with the exception of Ax suited in hearts. Now Ax or Kx suited is certainly in his range, but of any suit. Since he didn’t raise we can limit the suited hand possibilities to <= A7 or K7 giving us 7 combos in each suit. So we beat 21/28 of both Kx suited and Ax suited.

His turn check and river shove gives a lot of information away as he played passively from the start and then jammed the river; that alone indicates nuts or not to me; probably not.

So this is not as easy of a decision as it may seem - it’s certainly not an insta-fold. My quick and dirty calculations at the table give us a pretty easy +70% equity against his range; add many other combos in that I haven’t really considered and we can still come up with +50% equity pretty easy IMO. Of course, that’s also assuming that I have made accurate enough assumptions and allowed enough room for error.

I’ll leave it at that for now, anyone???

v some opponents i would opt not to bet the flop and bet turn and river, and fold if he lead turn or river. betting is ok, as played I think river is a fold unless you think he is likely to turn top pair into a bluff, which i dont think is likely given his preflop limp and line after that, it seems unlikely that any heart that we beat like 9h or 10h are going to bet here, more likely they c/c river. given that hands that beat us with Ah or Kh are going to bet a high % given player type, Qh is likely to aswell. so hands that are likely are KQh Khx Ah7 Ah8 Ah10 Ah9 Ah6 Ah5. he isnt going to jam sets, isnt going to jam 2pair, and isnt going to jam non flushes as a bluff. Against his value range we have exactly 0% equity so we need him to be bluffing around 45% of the time to be break even.

you could argue he could shove worse for value but id be surprised to see him turn up with lower flushes very often, id be equally surprised to see him bluffing with non flush hands, but most importantly even if he does, id be extremely surprised to see him do it more than 45%. even if he bluffs 30% of the time its still a shit ton of combos he has to be willing to bluff.

this passive type of player is someone we shouldnt call off light but should bet very thin against.
so i laugh on the inside and fold. and jam the river if checked to.

duggs said:

v some opponents i would opt not to bet the flop and bet turn and river, and fold if he lead turn or river. betting is ok, as played I think river is a fold unless you think he is likely to turn top pair into a bluff, which i dont think is likely given his preflop limp and line after that, it seems unlikely that any heart that we beat like 9h or 10h are going to bet here, more likely they c/c river. given that hands that beat us with Ah or Kh are going to bet a high % given player type, Qh is likely to aswell. so hands that are likely are KQh Khx Ah7 Ah8 Ah10 Ah9 Ah6 Ah5. he isnt going to jam sets, isnt going to jam 2pair, and isnt going to jam non flushes as a bluff. Against his value range we have exactly 0% equity so we need him to be bluffing around 45% of the time to be break even.

you could argue he could shove worse for value but id be surprised to see him turn up with lower flushes very often, id be equally surprised to see him bluffing with non flush hands, but most importantly even if he does, id be extremely surprised to see him do it more than 45%. even if he bluffs 30% of the time its still a shit ton of combos he has to be willing to bluff.

this passive type of player is someone we shouldnt call off light but should bet very thin against.

so i laugh on the inside and fold. and jam the river if checked to.

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Something told me that I was good here, but I still folded – I had to right? I was just trying to justify a call with my figures above but >50% equity against this range here is pretty optimistic.

Anyway, dickhead flips over

When I think back to his line it just makes me go; “What….Really.” You limp called K10 OOP, check called until a back door, 5th nuts, flush arrives before jamming the river?

Like I said though I could have sworn I was good here but couldn’t possibly explain how; so I folded….sigh! The idiots always drive me nuts but this guy proved to be the biggest idiot I have seen in a while; I busted him about 90 minutes later so I guess I got the last laugh, but still, this one was interesting. I actually find myself wondering how his brain functions!

shipping is non congruent with his player type, its unfortunate but doesnt change my analysis, even if he ships 10hx it doesnt change the fact i dont think we have even close to the required equity.

yes it is more of a fold. perhaps he had already met the flush on the turn so he checked it out on turn un goes all in on river

I honestly think the flop is the most interesting street, i probably check back tbh

duggs said:

I honestly think the flop is the most interesting street, i probably check back tbh

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same ^

However, he is a very passive player that has already limped, check/call, check/called QQ twice and lost each time.

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This probably tells you to fold. If he is passive and now just pushes, he got away with the worse hand, but I am sure he thought he was holding the best.

-So there is no way to ascertain his stupidity based on what you have said, just able to ascertain his passivity, which again would make me think he had the better heart if he is jamming it all in with his tournament life on the line here.

Fold the river either had a pair or flush.

I don't play live much, but last week at Winstar I pretty much ran into the same thing,,,I folded not sure if it was right or not,,,but it would have put me out of the tournament..

duggs said:

I honestly think the flop is the most interesting street, i probably check back tbh

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I agree, the flop is definitely the defining moment in this hand and you’ll notice I didn’t put another chip in the pot once I got the information my continuation bet revealed. What can he check/call the flop with? I think that range is much, much smaller than his pre-flop limp/call range and then when the turn and river hit hearts – and he check/jams - I’m out – though I wanted to call soooooo bad!

He can definitely call you with worse, hats not the problem, I just think that he will call turn and river with worse, especially if he doesn't lead tuen

duggs said:

He can definitely call you with worse, hats not the problem, I just think that he will call turn and river with worse, especially if he doesn't lead tuen

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When you say “worse” what are you thinking? Pocket pairs TT or less, A7o; that type of range?

Change the K on the flop to a Kh and the 3 to a 3s and you have a tough decision, here, but with the AKQ all live, it's a pretty easy fold. It's unfortunate that he turned one of the hands you could beat into a bluff, but it was literally one of the only hands you could've beaten, period. He probably thinks he's shoving for value, so he probably doesn't do it with much worse.

Small pairs, 7x A high, broadway cards, any fraw

Think for a moment, get the adrenaline rush, call.

ssbn743 said:

"... I have about $35K..."

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Too bad that I'm late (already know what he had), but I would have called. Like you said, everyone on the table was about 18k right? You were 35k, that pot was significant. You were beating T,9,8,7 and under! Losing for Ah,Kh,Qh ONLY!
We all know how its a bummer when we loose for a higher or even worse IMHO a 1 card higher flush! In your case would be the Qh.
Anyway, my point is if you loose that hand you would be stack leveled with the table in the worst case. And from there, you can always climb up!

oooo said:

Too bad that I'm late (already know what he had), but I would have called. Like you said, everyone on the table was about 18k right? You were 35k, that pot was significant. You were beating T,9,8,7 and under! Losing for Ah,Kh,Qh ONLY!

We all know how its a bummer when we loose for a higher or even worse IMHO a 1 card higher flush! In your case would be the Qh.

Anyway, my point is if you loose that hand you would be stack leveled with the table in the worst case. And from there, you can always climb up!

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But the odds that he has something we can beat are worse than the odds that he beats us. Not a good play to call, unless for some reason, we have more information to go on.

He’s certainly not shoving a here, meaning that we beat about 1 card he could have (and he actually had that card, the ) So we beat 1 of 4 combos. You might be able to throw the into his range giving us 2 of 5 but still not good enough.

3:1 or 3:2 means we need 75% and 60% equity here. We’re getting $10,250:$8,600, which gives us approximately 6:5 pot odds and we’re getting $18,850/$8,600 on our money, which is roughly 1.25:1. Not good enough, unless, like I said, we have more information to go – i.e. he’s bluffing >60% of the time; but that’s a pretty tough sell.

I really wanted to call and obviously that would have been right in this case, but over time we lose big on the same decision.

I think the decision is tough because of stack sizes and you can't be folding flushes on the river too often....

however because he is a passive player I think the fold is better.

But it is definitely NOT an insta-fold. I think every player owes it to themselves to think through the hand when then find themselves making a huge decision in a huge pot...even if you already know what you're going to do....just think it through.

in the end, I think I would have folded too....it just sucks that out of his ENTIRE plausible range he showed you the only hand you could really beat. so every other time your fold would save you money.

Occasionally aying down the best hand on the river is not the worst thing; these are the instincts that keep tourney players alive. You can't just reach into your wallet and buy more chips and you can find better spots later (if you give yourself the chance to survive long enough). Just as long as you thought it through and came to a logical decision, the rest is poker. If you never folded the best hand you'd be a donkey calling station.

Its a fold. Look my name is Jack and JJ is my favorite hand!! But!, with this many hearts and a raise after the flop that wasn't necessarily very strong by you, this is a fold. I think you could of bet your pair and flush draw on the turn. He might of showed you that he was stronger with a re raise, or he might of folded. Considering you did not take the opportunity to "check his status" on the turn, with his shove it's better to fold, save the chips and move on.

ssbn743 said:

But the odds that he has something we can beat are worse than the odds that he beats us. Not a good play to call, unless for some reason, we have more information to go on.

He’s certainly not shoving a here, meaning that we beat about 1 card he could have (and he actually had that card, the ) So we beat 1 of 4 combos. You might be able to throw the into his range giving us 2 of 5 but still not good enough.

3:1 or 3:2 means we need 75% and 60% equity here. We’re getting $10,250:$8,600, which gives us approximately 6:5 pot odds and we’re getting $18,850/$8,600 on our money, which is roughly 1.25:1. Not good enough, unless, like I said, we have more information to go – i.e. he’s bluffing >60% of the time; but that’s a pretty tough sell.

I really wanted to call and obviously that would have been right in this case, but over time we lose big on the same decision.

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I know, but in that tought, everytime that there is a draw on the board (straight or flush) and you have the draw, if he bets pot size, are you folding? Sometimes you have to make decisions that are not entirely based on numbers. I am aware that you are going to be a profitable player if you play based on the odds, but I feel that you had a gut feeling to call that hand right? Sometimes gut feelings are just right because its our subconscious telling us that is has perceived something that the conscious being is being too racional and that is misleading.
But in the "poker schools" your move was the right one. So just relax and enjoy your A+ on the class.

@ ppl who check back flop: can you explain why ??

looks to me like an easy b flop, b turn. Isn't it?

passive ppl live like to limp Ax and broadway so I guess losts of overflush are in their preflop range.

as played I'd fold river ainec. Passive player who overbet river demonstrate exacly what he has imho.

because villain is extremely unlikely to bluff turn, or do so with proper sizing, so we can check back flop, and value bet turn and river if he checks turn, and fold otherwise. we arguably miss some value against some of his range, but being able to not put money in bad v his Kx combos is pretty handy, and lots of turn cards create 2nd best hands for us to value bet. there shouldnt be that many combos of flush draws compared with Kx hands, and he has a bunch of small pairs that have virtually no outs so free cards arent a big deal.