Thoughts?

Dubstep

Dubstep

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PokerStars - $2.28+$0.22|400/800 Ante 75 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 4.31 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 4)
UTG+1: 5.31 BB (VPIP: 16.05, PFR: 13.16, 3Bet Preflop: 3.33, Hands: 81)
MP: 2.39 BB (VPIP: 9.09, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
MP+1: 4.56 BB (VPIP: 8.33, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
CO: 4.81 BB (VPIP: 21.21, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 33)
BTN: 4.14 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
Hero (SB): 16.92 BB
BB: 8.2 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 12.37, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 112)

8 players post ante of 0.09 BB, Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has 5:heart: Q:club:

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 16.82 BB and is all-in, BB calls 7.11 BB and is all-in

Flop: (16.96 BB, 2 players) A:club: 5:diamond: T:diamond:

Turn: (16.96 BB, 2 players) Q:diamond:

River: (16.96 BB, 2 players) J:club:

Hero shows 5:heart: Q:club: (Two Pair, Queens and Fives) (Pre 37%, Flop 20%, Turn 82%)
BB shows 9:heart: A:spade: (One Pair, Aces) (Pre 63%, Flop 80%, Turn 18%)
Hero wins 16.96 BB
:albertein
 
crusinnn

crusinnn

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Thoughts? Hero is a fish and got lucky.

Edit
2nd thought
Hero shows 16bb , could have shoved for several reasons. Probaly not a fish but a "fish shove" still got lucky.
 
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Jblocher1

Jblocher1

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Absolutely no reason to shove almost 17 bigs here. The only hands that call us are ones that crush. Just fold dude
 
Dubstep

Dubstep

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I shoved because he had a vp of 12% and because my stack was alot bigger i can afford to take a bit of a risk, because if i lose im in push/fold mode with 8bb and if i dont do something soon i would be there anyway. So i thought it was a good spot to steal or get lucky. but im not sure. And it wasnt a 17bb push. It was an 8bb push.
 
Dubstep

Dubstep

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I kinda think this play is right now looking at it twice. because hes vp is 12% Im probly going to pick up the blinds alot of times. which is 2.5bb in the pot.. so aslong as he folds 3 out of 4 times i make a profit. So i think pushing wide here might be a good spot especially because i had a big stack and put him at risk of elimination.. but maybe im wrong.
 
Jacki Burkhart

Jacki Burkhart

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I shoved because he had a vp of 12% and because my stack was alot bigger i can afford to take a bit of a risk, because if i lose im in push/fold mode with 8bb and if i dont do something soon i would be there anyway. So i thought it was a good spot to steal or get lucky. but im not sure. And it wasnt a 17bb push. It was an 8bb push.

I agree. it's a good shove. not because of your 2 cards, because he is tight.

You have a (barely) above average hand blind vs. blind against a tight player.

you cannot afford to make a raise and fold...and so if you're gonna call his all in you may as well leverage all your fold equity by jamming into him.

This will work a surprising amount of the time...he'll fold something like Q6-QJ which is a good outcome for you. He might even fold A2-A7 which is a great outcome. he may fold many weak Kings up to about KT...so you're folding out many hands that beat you and the ones that call you've got between 25-45% equity.

I would have shoved too
 
Jacki Burkhart

Jacki Burkhart

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another stat i like to have in my popup is "fold to late position steal" if the player is above 80% (which i would imagine he is) then you can shove basically the top 50% of hands profitably.

so, if his %fold to late position steal was, let's say 83% and it folds to my SB I'l jam any pair, any ace, any king, Q5+, J7+, T9+ and a few suited connectors and 1 gappers as low as about 57s. This should show a profit a fair amount of the time.

the only real reservation I have is we only have 112 hands on him....but you've got to go with the reads you have and take well calculated risks from time to time.
 
Jblocher1

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Misread hand my bad. I don't mind the shove for 8BB
 
W

WiZZiM

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this isn't even an 8bb shove, it's an effective stack size shove of around 6bb, since with the ante the blind level is essentially now 500-1000.



this shove is fine, and i'd be literally ATC here.


buuuuuuuut, heres where it gets cool. with the top 5% of my range i'd flat call and induce him to shove, and with the bottom 5% of my range i'd make it like 3x which will hopefully make him fold a few hands that he would normally snap call with. basically regs are used to calling all in shoves right? so lets not put them in their element, lets put them in spots where they are not so accustomed to being in.

in this exact spot, he's calling no matter what, but would he re-shove k8s over a 3x raise that looks like we're trying to get him to call? i don't know, but if he's calling preflop with k8s (likely if he's good) then when he re-shoves it has the same result, but at least we made him work for it. oh, and we're never folding if we make it 3x with 82off suit.

i'd only do this against regs, and those stats highly indicate regginess to me.
 
H

hffjd2000

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Youre just lucky on the turn.
Your saying: I will steal 2.25BB with my Q5.
Out of 4 tries, lets say, youll win 3 and lost 1. You gain 6.75 but will lost 8.2.
 
Jacki Burkhart

Jacki Burkhart

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Youre just lucky on the turn.
Your saying: I will steal 2.25BB with my Q5.
Out of 4 tries, lets say, youll win 3 and lost 1. You gain 6.75 but will lost 8.2.

You're correct if your assumption is true it would be a losing play. But I don't think your assumption is quite right. First of all, you have the math on the bb a little bit wrong. his stack is 8.2bbs but the 0.5bb is already in the pot from our SB, so the most we could lose is 7.7bb. Also, you're assuming that every time the SB calls hero will lose, which is not true. Even if he calls with a better Q we've still got roughly 25% equity. And thirdly, I think you're assuming the BB will call more often than he really will (but I could be wrong there).

Let's pretend his %fold to late position steal is 80% (which is probably about right for a player like this).

That would me an out of 5 tries hero will win the blinds 4 times.

so 4 x T2,200 = T8,800

and 1 x out of 5 the bb will call, but that doesn't mean we lose. vs. the bbs calling range of top 20% (because he's folding 80% remember) our equity vs. that range is 31.5%

so out of the one time he calls we will win his stack and antes 31% of the time (so T7,560 x 0.31 = T2,344) and 69% of the time we will lose only our calling chips as the antes and sb already belong to the pot so we lose T6,160 x 0.69= -T4,250. So for that 1 time out of 5 that he calls us we show a net loss of -T1906.

so 4 times we win 8,800
and 1 time we lose an average of 1,906

so the net profitability of the play is +T6,894

if you tweak the SBs calling ranges, you can change the equation quite a bit, so at some point it's not worth pushing into a player who likes to defend his blinds. I haven't done the math but my gut feeling is that if the players %fold to late position steal is lower than 65-70% then it may be better to fold.

So....in short, I'm defending hero's play here, as I likely would have made the same play myself. Now, I don't know if he did it for the right reasons or not, but presumably that is why he is here, to learn about these kinds of plays and the proper situations and reasons to use them.

Now, just because a play is profitable doesn't mean I'll make it 100% of the time. I'll sometimes fold the bottom of my range for a certain play to preserve my image and because I just don't have a great feeling about it, maybe the game flow is such that I think a certain player feels desperate etc. Q5o would be about the bottom of my range for this play. I'm learning more and more to listen to that little voice that says "not this time jacki" and lately whenever I DON'T listen to that voice I'm getting my ass handed to me.
 
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