Originally Posted by hffjd2000
Youre just lucky on the turn.
Your saying: I will steal 2.25BB with my Q5.
Out of 4 tries, lets say, youll win 3 and lost 1. You gain 6.75 but will lost 8.2.
You're correct if your assumption is true it would be a losing play. But I don't think your assumption is quite right. First of all, you have the math on the bb a little bit wrong. his stack is 8.2bbs but the 0.5bb is already in the pot from our SB, so the most we could lose is 7.7bb. Also, you're assuming that every time the SB calls hero will lose, which is not true. Even if he calls with a better Q we've still got roughly 25% equity. And thirdly, I think you're assuming the BB will call more often than he really will (but I could be wrong there).
Let's pretend his %fold to late position steal is 80% (which is probably about right for a player like this).
That would me an out of 5 tries hero will win the blinds 4 times.
so 4 x T2,200 = T8,800
and 1 x out of 5 the bb will call, but that doesn't mean we lose. vs. the bbs calling range of top 20% (because he's folding 80% remember) our equity vs. that range is 31.5%
so out of the one time he calls we will win his stack and antes 31% of the time (so T7,560 x 0.31 = T2,344) and 69% of the time we will lose only our calling chips as the antes and sb already belong to the pot so we lose T6,160 x 0.69= -T4,250. So for that 1 time out of 5 that he calls us we show a net loss of -T1906.
so 4 times we win 8,800
and 1 time we lose an average of 1,906
so the net profitability of the play is +T6,894
if you tweak the SBs calling ranges, you can change the equation quite a bit, so at some point it's not worth pushing into a player who likes to defend his blinds. I haven't done the math but my gut feeling is that if the players %fold to late position steal is lower than 65-70% then it may be better to fold.
So....in short, I'm defending hero's play here, as I likely would have made the same play myself. Now, I don't know if he did it for the right reasons or not, but presumably that is why he is here, to learn about these kinds of plays and the proper situations and reasons to use them.
Now, just because a play is profitable doesn't mean I'll make it 100% of the time. I'll sometimes fold the bottom of my range for a certain play to preserve my image and because I just don't have a great feeling about it, maybe the game flow is such that I think a certain player feels desperate etc. Q5o would be about the bottom of my range for this play. I'm learning more and more to listen to that little voice that says "not this time jacki" and lately whenever I DON'T listen to that voice I'm getting my ass handed to me.