Thought about Expected Value

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TheNoobie

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So, we all know, or atleast most of us, that to become a successive player at poker, you need to respect the mathematics. We all know also, that playing hands with +EV is vital, if you want to make any profit, for cash games.
But is it the same in tournament poker? I dont think so ( This is just my oppinion ). This thread will turn into a debate more than likely, so say what you wanna say, I want to hear your oppinions on this.
I dont think its that important, because in cash games you're playing with money all the time. Playing +EV hands is more profitable than not.
But I dont think it is that important for tournaments, because, for example, in cash games to make a profit out of +ev hands, you need to play a lot. You cant make a profit for example playing $0.2 NLHE with a bankroll of 2 dollars, because its not enough to make a difference and play that much hands. But if you had 20 dollars for example, its plenty of enough to see a difference and a profit out of playing +Ev hands.
I dont think thats important for tournaments because every tournament you play has its own statistics. I dont think that in tournament poker +EV makes you a profitable player, but not making poor decisions does.
+EV shows the possibilities of long term profit. But the tournament will be over in 2 hours, so if you have played an +EV hand and lost it, the next time you are in the same position you will more likely to be on a different tournament, but lost the previous one. So why is it so important?
I cant exactly put my thoughts into words on a language I dont honestly speak, but I sincerely hope you understood what I meant and share your oppinions x).
Will try to give you an example tho, to simplify the information.
Today you play cash game and lost a big +Ev hand. The next day you are in the same position, but you win it. This shows profit, because you are playing with real money. You lost 10 dollars, the next day you earned them back + a few cents profit ( for example. )
And, today you played a tournament and lost an +Ev hand. Tomorrow you are in the same position but you won the hand. This doesnt show profit in my eyes, because its in different tournaments. You placed your bets on a tournament hand, you lost it and your chances of getting into the first places decreased a lot. The next day you win it, but again there's no chance to get that money returned. But in cash games you get it immidiately.

As I said, this will turn into a debate, its what I want, share your oppinions, but DO NOT be aggressive to eachother. Nobody has to accept your oppinion just because you think you are right.
 
Lheticus

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Okay, first, I can't believe I'm the first person to reply to this thread--particularly since it has 70 views at the time of this writing. What's everyone afraid of?

Anyway, my knowledge of the differences between tournaments and cash games is limited, but what you're saying seems sound--especially because in a tournament, the stakes unavoidably increase gradually over time, where in a cash game they stay the same.

The objective in a tournament is to make the money and/or final table on the way to winning it all, and that is accomplished by not losing all your chips before a large percentage of the people in the tournament lose all their chips. Many strategic considerations are in play that simply are not in play in cash games--I believe that's why the forum categories for them are separate on this site. And from my limited poker experience, I believe that more than likely, there are times when it is perfectly all right to only make plays with definitive positive expectation and there are times when riskier plays are not only condoned, they are recommended.

Personally, I think that what makes the difference between these times is expressed very well in a concept I discovered recently called the "M-Ratio". The M-Ratio is in essence the number of full rotations the dealer button can make before a player is all-in just from putting in their blinds and antes. If the number is fairly high, say 20 or more, it's pretty safe at that point to just kick back and only play hands with definitive positive expectation. Below that, you'll likely want to make riskier plays to build your stack back up unless you're in the very late stages of a tournament in a situation where none of the remaining players have that high an M-Ratio, in which case you would simply compare your own chip count to your opponents'.

This is far from all that can be said, I'd imagine, but I hope it's a good start.
 
hobonc

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Would you rather play +EV hands in a tournament or -EV hands? There may be differences in the application of the mathematics in tourney play, but not a total disregard. It would be hard to list all the ways and the differences in each, but suffice it to say, yes, looking for +EV situations is one of the keys to consistency and winning in tournament poker.
 
Stevepdx

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Are you saying that you should pass up +ev situations, and avoid -ev situations?

Because passing up a +ev situation is -ev, IMO. Get those chips.

The object isn't to outlast everyone, it's to get all of the chips.
 
Lheticus

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Are you saying that you should pass up +ev situations, and avoid -ev situations?

Because passing up a +ev situation is -ev, IMO. Get those chips.

The object isn't to outlast everyone, it's to get all of the chips.

I'm definitely not saying you should pass up +ev situations. I'm saying that in a tournament situation, to make the money, you should open yourself to the possibility of playing a few -ev hands if you don't have a comfortable stack--or that stack could well wither without you doing anything at all.
 
hobonc

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Are you saying that you should pass up +ev situations, and avoid -ev situations?

Because passing up a +ev situation is -ev, IMO. Get those chips.

The object isn't to outlast everyone, it's to get all of the chips.

There are times when a situation may not be + enough to go all in with. Say early in a tourney with AK suited facing an all in, or perhaps right before a substantial pay jump with a decent size stack.
 
hobonc

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I'm definitely not saying you should pass up +ev situations. I'm saying that in a tournament situation, to make the money, you should open yourself to the possibility of playing a few -ev hands if you don't have a comfortable stack--or that stack could well wither without you doing anything at all.


Yes...this is known as opening up your range.
 
EvertonGirl

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Okay, first, I can't believe I'm the first person to reply to this thread--particularly since it has 70 views at the time of this writing. What's everyone afraid of?

Anyway, my knowledge of the differences between tournaments and cash games is limited, but what you're saying seems sound--especially because in a tournament, the stakes unavoidably increase gradually over time, where in a cash game they stay the same.

The objective in a tournament is to make the money and/or final table on the way to winning it all, and that is accomplished by not losing all your chips before a large percentage of the people in the tournament lose all their chips. Many strategic considerations are in play that simply are not in play in cash games--I believe that's why the forum categories for them are separate on this site. And from my limited poker experience, I believe that more than likely, there are times when it is perfectly all right to only make plays with definitive positive expectation and there are times when riskier plays are not only condoned, they are recommended.

Personally, I think that what makes the difference between these times is expressed very well in a concept I discovered recently called the "M-Ratio". The M-Ratio is in essence the number of full rotations the dealer button can make before a player is all-in just from putting in their blinds and antes. If the number is fairly high, say 20 or more, it's pretty safe at that point to just kick back and only play hands with definitive positive expectation. Below that, you'll likely want to make riskier plays to build your stack back up unless you're in the very late stages of a tournament in a situation where none of the remaining players have that high an M-Ratio, in which case you would simply compare your own chip count to your opponents'.

This is far from all that can be said, I'd imagine, but I hope it's a good start.

I have been playing tournaments with the M-ratio and it has improved my game immensely, so glad I learnt about it. I am now tackling the ICM but I believe this is used more in STT than the MTTs that i play in. Time will tell :)
 
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TheNoobie

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Are you saying that you should pass up +ev situations, and avoid -ev situations?

Because passing up a +ev situation is -ev, IMO. Get those chips.

The object isn't to outlast everyone, it's to get all of the chips.

I think you clearly misunderstood the concept of the thread.
Get those chips? What is that supposed to mean? Not every time when you play a +EV hand you will win it, and by the time you come across the same situation you would be in another tournament. Thats what I was trying to say.
If I lost a 10:1 pot odd hand in a cash game, I know that I only need to win once to break even, but I dont think this is the same for tournaments, because by the time you win again you might be in another tournament. And I just dont see how that wins you money in the long term.

And the point of the tournament is exactly to outlast everyone, that makes you a winner, not collecting all the chips that you can get. The meaning of the term "outlast everyone" should point you in the right direction.

What makes expected value so valuable to me is the long term profit. It could take hours , days, weeks, but it remains the same - if you play according to it, you will make a profit sooner or later.
And I'm not saying that this is a total disregard to +EV when it comes to tournaments, but tbh I really dont see why this is that important. As I said, it is vital for cash games. Knowing how to use that knowledge will make you a profitable player.
 
Stevepdx

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If you're simply trying to outlast everyone you're going to end up in second and third more than first.

"get those chips" means the same as "take manies the f do"

How do you suggest choosing spots, if not via expected value?
 
Stevepdx

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I'm definitely not saying you should pass up +ev situations. I'm saying that in a tournament situation, to make the money, you should open yourself to the possibility of playing a few -ev hands if you don't have a comfortable stack--or that stack could well wither without you doing anything at all.

Do you mean -ev starting hands/positions? What do you mean by "hands"? Preflop holdings, postflop lines..?
 
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TheNoobie

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Because most of the time I choose a +EV spot, my opponent is either re-raising so much that it actually becomes negative, or he goes all-in. We all know that to win a tournament you need to take a few chances and get lucky (coinflips). How would you describe that? Im not saying just staying back and wait for the people to get knocked out, you are playing, but you cant afford to pick up just the right spots to play your cards, or atleast I cant. I rarely bother calculating EV in tournament poker, and Im doing good so far. I think BRM and calculating your chances to win a particular hand is in times more important than expected value, but hey, thats just me. Im not trying to get you to accept my oppinion, Im just expressing it as you do with yours.
 
Stevepdx

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Because most of the time I choose a +EV spot, my opponent is either re-raising so much that it actually becomes negative, or he goes all-in. We all know that to win a tournament you need to take a few chances and get lucky (coinflips). How would you describe that? Im not saying just staying back and wait for the people to get knocked out, you are playing, but you cant afford to pick up just the right spots to play your cards, or atleast I cant. I rarely bother calculating EV in tournament poker, and Im doing good so far. I think BRM and calculating your chances to win a particular hand is in times more important than expected value, but hey, thats just me. Im not trying to get you to accept my oppinion, Im just expressing it as you do with yours.


Are you just talking about starting hands? I'm also considering other players' actions and our position. Certainly rags must be played, if that's what you mean.
 
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TheNoobie

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Im talking about the overall game. Raise pre-flop, you got a caller, flop comes, something or nothing hits, you c-bet, he goes all in. Thats a constant scenario for me. Most of the times I call he hits something on the river or the turn and I lose. That was how it went before, when I was playing according +Ev. I was cashing regularly, but not anything big. Then I just stopped following this and with some portion of luck from time to time I was cashing in the top 5 in regular-speed SnG's. (360, 180 man primarily).
Everyone has his own strategy, and I found that not following ev is more profitable for me in tournaments. I just wanted to hear some more oppinions.
 
Arjonius

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Not sure I fully understand, but it looks to me like the OP is only focused on hand EV, and thus ignoring tournament EV.

In a cash game, you basically want to play any time you're +EV because you end up with more money.

In a tournament, being +EV on a hand doesn't always mean you're +EV for the tournament if you play that hand. At least a few things can factor into this. One is that the pay table skews the value of the chips. Another is that depending on your relative skill advantage, you may have less need to play big pots in small +EV situations.
 
Stevepdx

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Im talking about the overall game. Raise pre-flop, you got a caller, flop comes, something or nothing hits, you c-bet, he goes all in. Thats a constant scenario for me. Most of the times I call he hits something on the river or the turn and I lose. That was how it went before, when I was playing according +Ev. I was cashing regularly, but not anything big. Then I just stopped following this and with some portion of luck from time to time I was cashing in the top 5 in regular-speed SnG's. (360, 180 man primarily).
Everyone has his own strategy, and I found that not following ev is more profitable for me in tournaments. I just wanted to hear some more oppinions.


It sounds like you've had to get more timid after losing repeatedly on the river. I don't expect this to be a long term winning strategy.

It's possible your cbets were +ev, even though villain calls and hits. Were you pricing him out of his draws?
 
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I can't exactly wrap my head around passing up +EV situations, but passing up all the -EV situations is definitely +EV.

When passing up +EV situations don't some factors like reversed implied odds and the M-Ratio come into play? :/
 
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Not sure I fully understand, but it looks to me like the OP is only focused on hand EV, and thus ignoring tournament EV.

In a cash game, you basically want to play any time you're +EV because you end up with more money.

In a tournament, being +EV on a hand doesn't always mean you're +EV for the tournament if you play that hand. At least a few things can factor into this. One is that the pay table skews the value of the chips. Another is that depending on your relative skill advantage, you may have less need to play big pots in small +EV situations.

spot on here^^
 
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thought about expected value

I too think you have to take more risk in tourney poker compared to cash game just for the simple fact the blinds are going up ,your forced to bet more and more of your stack on negative ev situations as the blinds go up .Why not throw a few chips in when your ev nuetral or slightly negative from position.
 
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If you're simply trying to outlast everyone you're going to end up in second and third more than first.
Even if you aren't simply trying to outlast everyone you are going to end up in 2nd and 3rd more than 1st simply because in order to reach 1st you must have already avoided elimination at both 2nd and 3rd.

Survival is a major factor for successful tournament players, much more so than not passing on +ev situations. The bigger the cash game mentality one brings to tournament play the more it will hinder one's tournament success.
 
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