Strange But True

Main Event St Louis wsop Circuit, $5k buy-in, 27 players left, paying 12. Blinds are 800-1600. Average stack approx 60,000.

Joel Casper (very good player from Chicago) opens mid position for 4,000 and is called by Bryan (also very good player) on the Button. Joel and Bryan have similar, above average stacks in the 100,000 range.

Flop is A52 rainbow, check, check

Turn is an 8, Joel bets 6,000, Bryan calls.

River is a Ten. Board is A528T, no flush possible. Joel bets 10,000. Bryan, now very quietly announces "raise," and, as was his custom, puts only the 10,000 in first. Joel, wearing headphones, didn't hear the verbal "raise," and before Bryan could complete his action, rolls over AK, for top pair, top kicker. Joel is dismayed to find out that Bryan has not completed his action and that he has inadvertently exposed his hand with action pending.

The floor is brought over and after lengthy discussion, the ruling is that Bryan's raise declaration is valid and he can (must) now proceed with a raise of his choosing. Bryan immediately says "all-in." Joel is mortified, tanks a bit, then says "you're not really sick enough to bluff in this spot, are you?" and mucks his already tabled AK.

Question 1 -- Could you ever summon up the courage, chutzpah, or insanity to call a guy at this spot in a major tourney who has seen your hand?

Question 2 -- Bryan showed after Joel folded, what did Bryan show?



Answer to question to follow later this week

Ha ha... very cool. The level of thinking f-a-thon. Is he bluff raising... or does he have it? Typically we'd assume he'd only raise a bit if he 'had it', in order for Joel to make the call but wouldn't this make it look stronger?
Shoving allin..... this might make it look weaker (aka bluff) but with it 'looking like' bluff... perhaps it's not??
Tough spot for Joel to get put in there, lol.

My guess, >>> only way for Bryan to win the hand is to bet (obv).. how much?... allin obviously. (bluff). BUT... could obviously be the exact opposite, lol.

Well told story, can't wait for the punchline.......

If I hit my set I could.....

No more responses to this one... hmm... I'm surprised.

I tried googling the result of the hand but wasn't able to find it. I know who went further in the tourney though, lol.

For a top pro like ivey or brunson, this is a easy all in and bluff. For the rest of us it is a tough decision, and i would think the longer u thought about it, the bluff is more the right play and the other guy would call. Moral of the story, don't wear headphones when in a hand.

This is certainly a great spot to bluff, but I'm inclinded to think he had it. My first thought was A 10 since he was going to raise the river, but I've changed my mind to a set of 5's. So that's my guess. Would have been a fun hand to watch.

This story is a freakin classic. Would have loved to be there to see the anguish on Joel's face. Can you describe their play any more than that? You said good players, but what does that mean. I would not be able to call. With 48,000 in the pot before the AI move and you said they both were above average stacked. You also said "he very quietly announced raise". Are you suggesting this entire situation could have been a complete set-up by Joel. If you are... I like this story even more! That's a kick ass move if he made a nasty move like that with AT or trips and gets the call down. I would love to see all head sets removed from the game of poker. It is just not natural and the grind and "boredom" should be part of the game. Anyway, thanks for the story I look forward to the conclusion.

Stix

Depends what history they had with each other, id suggest he shoved to make it look like a bluff, meaning he had it, but who knows? he could just be shoving, knowing it's a free pot and that he (most likely) wont call... great story nonetheless

answer to first question, in a big buy in tourney, probably not

Since we know he shows, i think hed show a bluff more than a monster. so ill stick with bluff. 64 hearts

He was already raising the river, which can't see him doing for value with worse than TPTK (what would call that he beat?), so either he was bluff raising to begin with or he has him beat (maybe Ak also? heh). I would think he has him beat after calling the turn and raising the river - showing he was willing to put almost half of his medium sized stack in the middle on this hand anyway.

d'wilius said:

He was already raising the river, which can't see him doing for value with worse than TPTK (what would call that he beat?), so either he was bluff raising to begin with or he has him beat (maybe Ak also? heh). I would think he has him beat after calling the turn and raising the river - showing he was willing to put almost half of his medium sized stack in the middle on this hand anyway.

Click to expand...

Yeah -- I'd be shocked if it was a bluff. The question in my mind is whether Bryan had it all the way, with a set or a straight (35s?), and was just enjoying letting Joel do the betting, waiting for his raise at the end. Why scare him off earlier when he's likely got it? The other possibility is that Bryan didn't make a hand til the river -- AT -- and had been a bit anxious until then.

A good time for a bluff, though. Joel's river raise wasn't that big compared to the pot, so it looked a bit weak. Not something I could do comfortably, tho. Maybe someday.

As to question 1 -- nope. Not with the big raise after he's seen what I have. Suicide.

Still waiting to hear.... how much longer OP?

Yes, I would have the courage to call, depending on my read, our history, etc... if I didnt know the player and had no firm read would fold.

Good answer?

I remember when Hansen called 450,000 bet online recently into a million pot, when 3rd heart hit on river. Villain shoved, Hansen tanked, then called to win with a K high!! That is reading!

I think i would call, only because he has seen my hand. He knows he can only win with a bluff. I think they have the same hand or he folds the best.



Dont think villain would show a better hand.


This is a perfect spot to bluff. Because of the psychology involved. What seperates a good player from a better one is the ability to lay down a strong hand when you think your beat. He only has a pair. Villain knows he can bluff him off a pair. TPTK is vulnerable.



Good play, Bad laydown.

But a standard ladydown.

IMO

Also, assume he didnt flip the cards over, and villain made the same play. What would you do?

I would like to see a few players get the correct answer and or the approved wrong answer.

Most responses lack a specific answer.

I suppose that I will give it until the weekend or Monday.

Sound fair enough?

I would like to see a few players get the correct answer and or the approved wrong answer. I am not suggesting that the correct answer has not been offered.

Most responses lack a specific answer.

I suppose that I will give it until the weekend or Monday.

Sound fair enough?

My guess is that he also had AK. Can't see him raising with much less on the river anyway and once he sees the other hand he knows he can go all-in and the worst he ends up with is a chop but he'll often win the pot.

kardmania said:

I would like to see a few players get the correct answer and or the approved wrong answer. I am not suggesting that the correct answer has not been offered.

Most responses lack a specific answer.

I suppose that I will give it until the weekend or Monday.

Sound fair enough?

Click to expand...

The tension is killing me.

Very interesting post.

Here's my answers:

Question 1: Yes, I would be able to make the call but it would depend heavily on the situation and how likely I thought villain was to bluff here. Having said that, it is a very tough spot. You have a more than comfortable stack so don't need to make a hero call with TPTK and end up blowing an opportunity at a nice pay day.

Question 2: I would put Brian on pocket 10s. He checked the flop, scared of the Ace, just called on the turn and then saw his opportunity to take down a monster pot on the river and went for it all.

Really look forward to seeing the answer.

^ very good point.

I can see how villain could have pockets tens.

Total Mind-F*! lol....

I don't think Bryan is bluffing.. I'd put him on Pocket 8's with a smooth call on the turn.

Also.. good reason not to wear headphones at the tables.

Its been 5 days... that is definitely "later in the week".

Post the answer!

My guess is Bryan had AK.

The Answer

The Answer:

As a reminder we have a bet and all-in raise with A538T board, with AK exposed.

The correct answer from the initial correct responder MrHickey:


I am sticking with my call....by the way the 7 6 is suited...which is why he entered....he would have left on the flop to any bet. Caught the open ended straight draw so calls on the turn......and pulled a classic bluff on the river....aided by his opponent.

Well done Mr Hickey



Further Professional Analysis --

Joel outsmarts himself by checking tptk on the flop hoping for a check raise for sure. Bryan basically whiffed completely on the flop and is just giving up.

Joel now needs to get some money in the pot on the Turn, and bets 6K, but Bryan Turned open-ended and reasonably enough pays to see the River.

River is benign enough, so Joel puts in a solid value bet. Joel played the hand tricky enough that Bryan misjudges the strength of Joel's hand and I am convinced plans to go for a "standard" raise to say 25-30k knowing that A) it is the only way he can win the pot, and B) Joel will probably fold a weak Ace or something like QQ.

With the AK exposed, Bryan knows that Joel will pay off any standard raise and goes for the only winning play available -- all-in.

Some of you commented that Bryan moved in "immediately," but, remember, there was a several minute delay for a floor ruling. He had plenty of time to analyze.

I agree with those who said "why so much?" if you got AK beat why not milk him for at least 10k more which he could never resist. HOWEVER, thinking a level deeper, Joel could have sniffed out that the all-in portrayed weakness, not strength. So, Bryan COULD HAVE REVERSED on him and shoved with a winner.

Game Theory might suggest that the all-in, (from a good, thinking player) meant absolutely NOTHING in terms of hand strength. Therefore, how do you feel about tptk in this spot for your life.

All I got to say is that takes balls to put your whole stack in on a bluff in a 5k event.

Something similar to this happened in a tourny I was playing in one time. Of course the stakes were much lower, and the caliber of player was much less. One player (a total beginner) accidently lay his hand down face up after the river was dealt before the other player had a chance to act. His cards also were AK. One big difference...he had absolutely nothing other than ace high. The other player made a big bet despite the fact that the beginner probably hadn't folded all night. So the beginner of course called and won the hand and the other guy went ballistic figuring he's been cheated. It was so hard not to laugh.