Something I don't understand in SnG Power Tools...

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jaded848

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While messing around with the program I created a scenario where it was the bubble and I was in the CO with 800 chips. I set blinds to 150/300. In the BTN was another severely short stacked played with 650 chips. The SB and BB had big stacks of around 6k and 4k each, give or take. I set the players ranges to be quite wide, 22+/A2+/K6+/Q8+/JT+. I asked the program to "compute all" possible shoving ranges expecting to see 100% because we were under 3 BB's. Surprisingly, the range was 18%!?!? How can this be? If we fold this hand then we hit the blinds next and are left with a meager 500 chips to work with.

Even when I set the BTN to 2000 chips, to eliminate the possibily that we could "wait him out" to reach the money, the open-shove range was still only 25%. Is this just an error within SnG Power Tools? I really am planning on getting SnG Wiz as soon as I can afford it, I'm just using this program for now.
 
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WiZZiM

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Not sure without seeing it, a screen shot would help.
 
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jaded848

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Ok, here are the two scenarios. I tweaked them a bit so they aren't exactly like in my original post, but they are close enough. I still don't see how the shoving range can be so low with the blinds about to hit and us under 3 BBs...
 

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WiZZiM

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ICM calculators like SNG power tools, don't take into account the future blind concerns, It cant look into the future, it will only look at this one spot and tell you if shoving or folding gives you the most equity long term. It's one of the shortcomings, but we can adjust it.

Go into 'edit' then into 'minimum edge' in both situations we can lower our edge to around -.35 and -.45 respectively. It's one of more advanced concepts of ICM, but basically by lowering our 'edge' here it will widen the ranges given as it can then take into account the future blind concerns.

Other than that, with the info put into the calculator, these ranges are fine, Although, in both examples the calling ranges of the bigger stacked villaisn is most probably wider than that. We should have 0 fold equity here, but against donks, we might have a little.

What folding allows us to accomplish, is A) letting the other shortstack get it in with the other two. B) by folding we are obviously commited to calling in the BB, (in the second example anyway) but, it helps us get heads up, if we shove, were most likely getting called in one, if not two spots (collusion etc). by folding and going with whatever hand in the BB, most probably the CO and button folds and sb shoves, thus, we get heads up and a bigger chance to take the pot down.
 
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jaded848

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WiZZiM said:
ICM calculators like SNG power tools, don't take into account the future blind concerns, It cant look into the future, it will only look at this one spot and tell you if shoving or folding gives you the most equity long term. It's one of the shortcomings, but we can adjust it.

Go into 'edit' then into 'minimum edge' in both situations we can lower our edge to around -.35 and -.45 respectively. It's one of more advanced concepts of ICM, but basically by lowering our 'edge' here it will widen the ranges given as it can then take into account the future blind concerns.

Other than that, with the info put into the calculator, these ranges are fine, Although, in both examples the calling ranges of the bigger stacked villaisn is most probably wider than that. We should have 0 fold equity here, but against donks, we might have a little.

What folding allows us to accomplish, is A) letting the other shortstack get it in with the other two. B) by folding we are obviously commited to calling in the BB, (in the second example anyway) but, it helps us get heads up, if we shove, were most likely getting called in one, if not two spots (collusion etc). by folding and going with whatever hand in the BB, most probably the CO and button folds and sb shoves, thus, we get heads up and a bigger chance to take the pot down.
Click to expand...

I tried adjusting the edge, but the percentage didn't change much. Is this because of the reasons you stated in your last paragraph?
 
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WiZZiM

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Yes, probably. Moreso it's the fact that were shoving into 3 people(The worst position on the table). Try, moving the positions around and see how that affects your range. Move us to the button and see the range open up, then move it to the SB, same stacks, and you will see it really wide. As you should know, our range tightens as we move farther away from the blinds, and opens as we get closer to the blinds, as there are less people we have to shove into.

One more thing, if a decent reg is in the blinds, we have 0 fold equity, as they are getting odds to call with any two.
 
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I guess what confuses me in this scenario is that in Moshman's book, assuming I understood him correctly, he says it is better to shove w/ any two cards in the CO of the bubble when you have 3BBs left than to let the blinds hit you. Granted, here we have less than that, but I doubt much would change if I changed our stack to 900.

Still, it is interesting because I agree with you WiZZiM, waiting for the blind is more likely to ensure that we are heads-up. How about this situation: Let's say we wait for the blind, and the other shortstack shoves. One of the big stacks shoves over the top. Can we call here with ATC? What about if a big stack shoves and the other big stack calls? Essentially what I'm wondering is, is it worth it to just fold at the hopes of another player busting or do we take our chances at a triple-up?
 
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jaded848 said:
I guess what confuses me in this scenario is that in Moshman's book, assuming I understood him correctly, he says it is better to shove w/ any two cards in the CO of the bubble when you have 3BBs left than to let the blinds hit you. Granted, here we have less than that, but I doubt much would change if I changed our stack to 900. Well yeah, but i wouldn't be shoving any two in this spot, my range would be like 30-40% roughly, other than that, id rather just fold, hope that they get it in vs each other, then go with whatever the BB deals me, hoping to get heads up.

Still, it is interesting because I agree with you WiZZiM, waiting for the blind is more likely to ensure that we are heads-up. How about this situation: Let's say we wait for the blind, and the other shortstack shoves. One of the big stacks shoves over the top. Can we call here with ATC? In this situation, it sort of depends what the stack sizes are, but if we have the other shortstack outchipped, then we can possibly make a call, im not sure about calling with any two.What about if a big stack shoves and the other big stack calls?This should be a fold from us, again, hard to tell without exact stack sizes Essentially what I'm wondering is, is it worth it to just fold at the hopes of another player busting or do we take our chances at a triple-up?It depends. :D. Can't really answer it, post some specific HA with stack sizes etc. Sometimes it's correct to fold, others it's correct to make the overcall.
Click to expand...
Sorry, thought i replied to this already, must not have worked.
 
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