re: Poker & SNGWiz is weird...
Originally Posted by WiZZiM
I know where i'm not wanted... :P
Hahah, sorry buddy, I just know you know the answer
Originally Posted by jbbb
How strange, I was literaly just asking myself the same question.
When I put this thread (http://www.cardschat.com/f51/6-50-nlhe-stt-bubble-button-193935/) into SNGWiz it outputted JJ+ or AKs+ which seems mighty tight for a standard re-steal spot. I'd be looking to shove much wider than this, but SNGWiz says that -EV.
Anyone care to explain?
Yeah, in that hand the issue is two things - the first is that your opponent is never going to fold enough to make it profitable; the second is that our chip position and the arrangement of the stacks are such that we can't be really aggressive.
Originally Posted by Lofwyr
I don't have teh SNGwiz...but for starters the range for your villains seems WAY off. I mean as shown in SNGwiz they don't seem to match the weak/tight & fold-happy natures you'd described.
Also...SNGwiz/ICM don't care about next hand, blind vs. average stack-size, FE post-blinds, etc.
This is very true. The short stack is just an awful player, and isn't going to get it in 52% of the time from what I observed. And the other two stacks - they've been pretty tight on the bubble, so I don't think their ranges are very accurate, especially considering that the guy in the BB is about to go out.
So I'm going to put the BB at 35% now, which is any pair, and ace, and suited king, K5o+, all broadways but JTo, plus Q9s, Q8s, and J9s. The two other guys are now at 15%, which is 33+, A4s+, A8o+, and KTs+ (that might be a little wide still but whatever), and here's what we get.
So that's still not very close. So what the eff gives?
Perhaps a hint would be helpful - given our reads, what action will likely take place if we fold?