SNG Variance

or3o1990

or3o1990

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Hello all! I've recently been grinding 9 man triple up SNG's on bovada quite successfully up until three weeks ago. Since I cashed out last time I just can't seem to put together any wins. Even when I'm playing my game and I get it in good it just hasn't been working out.

I'm down more than 50BI the last three weeks at these SNG's. It's some sick variance indeed. Luckily for me I left almost 75BI on my account when I cashed out and paid my bills for three months in advance so I'm not drowning just yet.. I should drop down in stakes though as I only have a little more than 25BI on my account still. I don't want to but I know that I probably should.

I'm feeling like this big of a downswing is unusual at these SNG's but my sample is still under 1k. So I could have bad info and actually have no idea what I'm talking about, idk for sure.

I'm hoping for some input from some real SNG grinders. Is this abnormal? or is this something I'm going to have to get used to if I keep grinding these long term? Have you had a downswing this significant ever? And if so, how often? Any info would be very helpful thanks!
 
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scooba13

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I was doing really nicely with micro regular NLHE and turbo PLO 9 man SNGs until 2 days ago - having fairly consistently had a 40% ROI I lost about 20 in a row (including one misclick on the bubble - yay!). I couldn't seem to hit a hand and I kept either making mistakes or getting bad beats.

I'm still not sure whether the anomaly was the upswing or whether my basic game is OK. One thing I feel like I should have done is walk away when I lost 5 in a row.... My sample size is still <1000

With the triple ups - what do you think your edge is? You could figure the probablity of losing x in a row based on that - if you look back at individual hands can you identify any specific leaks?
 
or3o1990

or3o1990

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I was doing really nicely with micro regular NLHE and turbo PLO 9 man SNGs until 2 days ago - having fairly consistently had a 40% ROI I lost about 20 in a row (including one misclick on the bubble - yay!). I couldn't seem to hit a hand and I kept either making mistakes or getting bad beats.

I'm still not sure whether the anomaly was the upswing or whether my basic game is OK. One thing I feel like I should have done is walk away when I lost 5 in a row.... My sample size is still <1000

With the triple ups - what do you think your edge is? You could figure the probablity of losing x in a row based on that - if you look back at individual hands can you identify any specific leaks?

I'm not exactly sure how to calculate my edge. I did find an interesting tool though, check it out.

http://pokerdope.com/tournament-variance-calculator/

My ROI was over 30% after 300 games and I knew that was crazy and wouldn't last. I was hoping for 10%. It's about 6% now. Which is obviously a little disappointing but I only have 700 games included into my sample. If you play with that calculator it shows what a disaster can occur after only 700 games. And the incredible difference that is possible even after 7000.

I didn't loose all of these in a row but over a three week period I'm down over 50BI and 3 1/2 weeks ago I was up over 100. I have been reviewing HH's and found a couple spots I need to work on improving. I've definitely cost myself several of my losses by my own doing and sometimes just running into bigger hands.
 
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WiZZiM

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the amount and severity of your downswings depends on how well you play. a 50 buyin downswing is not massive comoared to other formats but id wager this format either isnt as profitable as others the rake might be high. you might have some leaks that is costing you to lose where you shouldnt.

in my experience its usually a combination of all the above. but the key to focus on is are you still winning money in the long term? like if you had a 150 buyin upswing and just lost 50 buyins you are still 100buyins up!!
 
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WiZZiM

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oh and the worst thing I see players do is make changes to their game because they are losing buyins. you can and should make changes to your game but it shouldnt matter if you are winning or losing if you think an area of ur game is weak fix it. if you dont knoe where to look ask yourself about things like. why is open shoving wide good bvb. if you cannot answer it you are weak I that area. same can be aplied to 3bet shoving and working out ranges for it. open shove ranges and call r angez etc etc
 
or3o1990

or3o1990

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oh and the worst thing I see players do is make changes to their game because they are losing buyins. you can and should make changes to your game but it shouldnt matter if you are winning or losing if you think an area of ur game is weak fix it. if you dont knoe where to look ask yourself about things like. why is open shoving wide good bvb. if you cannot answer it you are weak I that area. same can be aplied to 3bet shoving and working out ranges for it. open shove ranges and call r angez etc etc


I see what your saying and I don't plan on changing my game up really. Just plugging up a couple small leaks I've noticed and trying to not let the swing get to me. I'm still up buying but because I withdrew money I'm going to have to drop in stakes or pad my account.

I don't think the rake is that bad it'd two bucks on 28. Idk.
 
the_wonk

the_wonk

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that rake isn't bad imo.

the lower variance of sngs (compared to other forms of poker) is actually one of the benefit of the format. the 2 primary factors determining how hard those swings will be are 1) number of entrants, and 2) your real win rate/ROI.

1) number of entrants - smaller fields and fields that pay out a higher percentage of entrants = lower variance. it should be obvious, but playing 180 person fields will lead to much higher variance than playing 9 person sngs. and a 9 person sng that pays 3 places will be lower variance than one that pays 2. this factor is a good bit less important than the overall field size tho.

2) variance and swings have a very strong relationship to win rate.
like if your actual ROI had really been 30%, it would be almost impossible to be losing much after even 200 trials. with a true ROI of 15% you would have ~10% chance of losing after 200 trials. and with a true ROI of 5% you would have ~30% chance of losing after 200 trials.

so if you don't like swings, win more overall. :D (easier said than done of course)
 
or3o1990

or3o1990

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that rake isn't bad imo.

the lower variance of sngs (compared to other forms of poker) is actually one of the benefit of the format. the 2 primary factors determining how hard those swings will be are 1) number of entrants, and 2) your real win rate/ROI.

1) number of entrants - smaller fields and fields that pay out a higher percentage of entrants = lower variance. it should be obvious, but playing 180 person fields will lead to much higher variance than playing 9 person sngs. and a 9 person sng that pays 3 places will be lower variance than one that pays 2. this factor is a good bit less important than the overall field size tho.

2) variance and swings have a very strong relationship to win rate.
like if your actual ROI had really been 30%, it would be almost impossible to be losing much after even 200 trials. with a true ROI of 15% you would have ~10% chance of losing after 200 trials. and with a true ROI of 5% you would have ~30% chance of losing after 200 trials.

so if you don't like swings, win more overall. :D (easier said than done of course)

definitely easier said than done.. I'm just going to take a day of, drop in stakes and then get back to it and see how it goes.
 
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wowasenotrusov

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I do not know how to play these SNGs. very frequencies move even with very strong hands.
 
Syltan

Syltan

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I'm a fan of conspiracies, as the Deposit and withdrawal of funds directly related to Luck at the table. Get down to the limit and be patient.
 
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