sng theory

tomh7795

tomh7795

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I know that many player will know this but i haven't seen a lot of info compared to the many other things.
Imagine it's the first hand of a 9 handed sng. Everyone has 11.11% of the equity. You go all in first hand with aq vs kjs. you have aq

41% - (11.11) + 59% (20.30)
42 x 0.11 = 4.62 = - 4.51%
58 x 0.09 = 5.22 = 5.22%
-4.51 + 5.22 = 0.71
Even though you gain 0.71 equity, that is a very small amount when being a 60% favourite. In a $5 9 man sng (where the prize pool is $45) thats only 0.63 cents. that you gain in the long run.

Another hand is a classic coin flip where your a decent favourite for a coinflip. we have QQ against ak all in pre-flop first hand at 9 handed sng.

43% -(11.11) + 57 (20.30)
45% x 0.11 = 4.95
55% x 0.09 = 4.95

So here as a 55% favourite we are only making even with our equity (with the equity's i use it to 1 decimal place so they are close but not pin point) but it really makes no difference. Even if i was a little bit off it would only change a few cents difference.

This time it's the bubble and we all have even stacks. So we all have 25% of the prizepool. Forgot about icm and all that here. let's just say we all have 18 bb and some idiot shoves with 109s. We call with AK. you do a dance and say woohoo i'm ahead lol. But are you really?

Lets look at the equity here.
42% - (25%) + 58% (12%)
42 x 0.25 = -10.5%
58 x 0.12 + 6.96%
-10.5 - 6.96 = -3.54.

This hand we're losing 3.54% equity on average when we were a 58% favourite. The player who got the spare equity was the players who folded.

Now if you look at that hand from the 109s suited view.
58% - (25%) = 42% (12%)
58 x 0.25 = 14.5= - 14.5%
42 x 0.12 = 5.04 = 5.04%
-14.5% + 5.04 = 9.46%
So your losing 9.46% equity on average. So when your ahead (showdown value wise) your could be behind on equity.


If i made any mistakes then i am sorry. If you don't get the math or how i got a certain figure can you just show me where and i can explain it again.

I was planning on writing a guide on how to play sng but there are hundreds online so i thought i would do something different. There are better players then me who could do a much better job then me. I was just pointing out this concept that involves sng a lot more then cash or tournaments. I haven't seen a lot off info with this so i thought i would write something.

This is the equity you have at the table when all the stacks are even
9 players with 1500 each you have 11.11% equity
8 players left with 1687 each you have 12.53% equity
7 players left with 1928 each you have 14.325 equity
6 players left with 2250 each you have 16.67% equity
5 players left with 2700 each you have 20.095% equity
4 players left with 3375 each you have 25% equity
3 players left with 4500 each you have 33.39% equity
2 players left with 6750 each have 40% equity
1 player with 13500 has won with 50% of the equity.




One more thing. I wanna say sorry to dakota-xx for saying what i said. Shouldn't have said that.



Well i hope you can use this in your next sng and helps review your sessions and hands.

good luck yall
 
TheKAAHK

TheKAAHK

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Gee and here I thought every hand heads up was 50/50. You either win or lose. lol

But seriously, this is an interesting way to look at these sorts of situations.

Am I to reason that in the AK vs 10 9 example that we're better off folding with even stacks instead of flipping? Even if we're most likely ahead? Interesting.

Normally i wouldn't call a shove for all my chips pre with AK on the bubble anyways, but that's mostly because I'm not into flipping. Good to know there's a reason to back up my tendency.
 
E

Eclipsenz

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I don't get equity.. is it the size of your stack to every body elses I.E if you have less than 10 bb and everybody has 30bb plus you have none? am I getting this right, I also don't get how you say with AK not to call with it as it wouldn't matter how is not having a chance to double up a bad play here? yeah fair enough you shouldn't risk your tourney life on AK especially if your near the bubble..but I dunno I don't get your theory since theres never a time when stacks are all even etc... well sort of but yeah.

I dunno don't mean to be a noob but yeah
 
dj11

dj11

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Not to be too flippant, but if I were a robot, I'd play just like u suggest.....
 
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