Originally Posted by SwiftHax
I have to disagree with you on this one.
In my opinion, the bubble is the best place for coinflips. Not only will people tighten up so you can take down the blinds uncontested, but even if you do get into a 50/50 and win, it gives you a much better chance to fight for a higher position ITM rather than just folding yourself into min-cash. Those higher position finishes will compensate the times you bubbled on a flip.
Back to OP, I would wait a couple of orbits and get to know my opponents, especially the two on my left before making any kind of a play unless I've got a monster like QQ+ or AK which I would jam or raise LP.
I agree with you on the first part.
I disagree with you on the 2nd part...by waiting a couple of orbits, your 14bb stack is now roughly a 10bb stack. I think this is too nitty, we're just blinding down hoping for the deck to save us with a monster (but we'll have no chips to even protect our monster). Surely we can play better than just waiting for the deck to bail us out!
At 14bbs you have a pretty good re-steal stack if you get the sense that the raiser is opening light, or abusing the bubble. Ideally, I like to have 15-20bbs to re-steal but 14bbs is close enough.
So, for instance even without reads, if somebody raises from late position, we can already put them on wider than a value range, right? so if you look down at a playable hand (including speculative hands) just jam. They'll fold their trash and speculative hands They'll call with their monsters, but even if they call with AK and you have pushed with a hand like T9s you are still 40% to win...not bad. especially since you might get him to lay down a hand like KT or Q9 which has you crushed.
and of course, jam with your monsters too.
My favorite thing is when this happens, I am new to a table, I re-steal with something like J9s, I get "caught" by a hand like AQ and I double up on some of my 40% outs. then later, you 3bet all in with a hand like JJ+ and they call you down pretty light. It's beautiful!
You can't nit up in these spots...you're actually still in great danger of blinding out so since you risk busting out of the money anyways, you may as well be attempting to build a final table stack in the process. So...most the time you bust (that's tournament poker in a nutshell for ya!) but the times you DON'T you're a real contender.