Situation for ya

18 players left in a 1,000 + player tournament.

You are #5 in chips.

#2 in chips and #4 in chips are at your table.

#2 is UTG, #4 in SB, and you are in BB

Blinds (6,000/12,000)

UTG (500,000)

SB (435,000)

BB (360,000)

You are dealt KK.

Both players have been noted as tight players.

UTG raises to 36,000. SB calls. You re-raise to 90,000.

UTG goes all-in, SB insta-calls.

Can you consider folding?

not a real situation, just wondering whether there is a situation in which one would consider folding KK pre-flop.

1. would 3-bet bigger
2. not folding

No way I'll fold KK there preflop...

I'll take a bash.

What is SB calling with, seeing a 3-bet then calling an AI with? If SB has QQ-AA he does NOT want to just call against the table leader, he is repopping 100% of the time. The top of his range is AK or some other trappy hand. You can't trap by calling an AI, so that leaves AK.

UTG sees the limp from SB and discounts QQ-AA. Your raise may be a resteal, but your 3bet range is still tight: JJ-AA, AK. The shove here with his full opening range is +EV because he has you both covered and is getting you to fold everything except AA (and maybe KK )

Thus KK is a big favorite here and the call hoping UTG doesn't have Aces and SB isn't some genius with suited aces .

PS. In reality, I can't do this in 20sec, so I puke into my mouth a bit and click call.

In most of the conceivable holdings (at least the ones that make sense to me) KK is usually 50-55% to win the three-way hand.

UTG 77 20.1%
SB AhKh 29.7%
BB KcKs 49.7%

UTG AhQh 27.8%
SB JdJc 27.8%
BB KcKs 54.5%

Much higher odds if UTG and SB both hold Ax, but is that really likely here? If SB does have AA life becomes very ugly. Given that I'm about to become #4 in chips and one of the big stacks at my table will be crippled/killed, I'm folding. I didn't play this close to the big money to coin-flip for 18th place. Not that I've ever been this close to big money.

I know, this is where I get another insta-lecture on EVs. Keep trying, it will eventually sink in.

bd

lol, loop gave me the EV lecture before I could finish my post. Now that's an insta-lecture!

@Brackdog. I wouldn't criticise you for folding this spot.

Some more things to consider in favour of calling though:

What sucks is that you've given up 30% of your stack in the raise.

Then the other players see you raise n fold, and you lose your "fear equity" -- you may not get respect for your future raises either.

AND the aggressive big stack has position on you.

Next hand you raise 2.5x w 88 from SB and BB (was UTG) now shoves again.

Scream. Fold. Repeat. Now you've lost half your original stack and you haven't seen a flop.